We are approaching the trade deadline, and though I really don't expect KP to make a trade, I think we need to take a long look at our roster and how we should proceed from here on. I'm going to rate each player's importance to the team on a scale of 1 to 10 based on age, contract, stats, and potential. The guards go first... Jerryd Bayless age: 21 stats: 9.5 ppg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 rpg contract: $2,143,080/2 more years Bayless has shown improvement this year, although he still remains inconsistent. Is he a point guard? Not in the traditional sense. He isn't Andre Miller, and we probably won't see him dropping 10 assists very often. Still, he has shown he can score and get to the line, which is a definite plus. He is one of the better defenders at point guard, and he can swing between the two guard positions. His contract is still very affordable, he is very young at only 21 years old, and he is probably the hardest working player on the team. Bayless has a ton of potential, and could eventually end up starting next to Brandon Roy down the road. At this point, I see Bayless as the ultimate combo guard, playing backup minutes at both point guard and shooting guard. Rating: 8/10 Steve Blake Age: 29 Stats: 7.8 ppg, 3.8 apg, 2.3 rpg Contract: $4,000,000/1year Blake hasn't been stellar this year. He hasn't found the touch that he displayed last season, his defense is sub-par, and he isn't much of a playmaker either. Blake simply isn't in the long-term plans for this team. He has an expiring deal, and at 29 years old he has very little chance of growing as a player. What we see is what we get. Even worse, he's taking minutes from guys like Bayless and Rudy Fernandez. In all likelihood we will either see Blake moved before the deadline or allowed to walk away after the season. The Blazers have too much talent at the guard position to make Blake worth re-signing. Rating: 5/10 Rudy Fernandez Age: 24 Stats: 9 ppg, 2.1 apg, 2.9 rebounds Contract: $1,165,320/2 years Rudy is a dynamic guard, with a level of excitement that few players possess. We never know what Rudy is going to do next. He has big play capability and a very high basketball IQ. Unfortunately Rudy has been injured most of this season, and there are definitely concerns about his back. To make matters worse, he doesn't seem to have the same energy that he had last season. Is it from Sergio leaving? Is it the injury? Hard to say at this point, but the emergence of Jerryd Bayless has made Rudy somewhat expendable. While I would love to see the team hold onto Rudy, I have a strong feeling that he will want to go somewhere else when his rookie contract is up. Rudy strikes me as the kind of guy who will want to start. He came to the NBA to show what he can do, and I don't think that included backing up a three-time All-Star. He could easily be one of the best sixth men in the league, there's a good chance he will end up somewhere else. Rudy is still young, he has a ton of potential, and he has a very good contract. Unfortunately I think he's expendable, so his rating is going to suffer. Rating: 6/10 Andre Miller Age: 33 Stats: 13.3 ppg, 5.2 apg, 3.0 rpg Contract: $6,730,800/3 years Miller is finally hitting his stride. The 52 point performance shocked the world. Nobody thought he had that in him, especially not Blazer fans. While I admit I thought the Blazers were bringing in a distributor, his scoring has been a welcome surprise in the absence of Brandon Roy. Though Miller is 33, he is exactly the kind of veteran leadership that the team lacked last season. Miller is the kind of player who will step up when the team needs a timely bucket or a heady play. It's players like Andre Miller who help get you past the first round of the playoffs. There was talk of trading Miller before the deadline, but with all the injuries he has become indispensable. I don't see the team moving him, especially with Blake playing so poorly this season. Miller has two more years left on his contract after this season, so he should be fading right about the same time Bayless is ready to take over at that position. Hopefully some of his basketball smarts rub off on Jay Bay. Rating: 9/10 Patty Mills Age: 21 Stats: N/A Contract: $457,588/1 year Mills is a prospect, nothing more. He never would have sniffed a second of playing time without all the injuries that have plagued the Blazers. He has logged a couple of Dleague games, and he showed some promise, but his future with the team is hard to judge at this point. He has potential, but I don't think the Blazers will know what they have until he has played in a few more games with the D League or the summer league. He has a chance of holding on, but the odds are against him. Rating: 3/10 Brandon Roy Age: 25 Stats: 23.1 ppg, 5 apg, 4.6 rpg Contract: $3,910,816/final year until new contract kicks in. Roy has been awesome, yet again, and has truly put the team on his back at times this season. He was selected to his third-straight All-Star game, which cements him as a true perennial star in this league. He is currently sidelined with a hamstring injury, which has made things that much tougher on the team, but he should return soon hopefully. Roy struggled earlier this season. I'm not sure if that's from taking the summer off, or if it was the presence of Greg Oden in the post. It definitely wasn't Andre Miller, but whatever it was, it went away with the quickness after Oden went down. Roy stepped up big time, and he showed that he is clearly one of the best scorers in the league. Roy is the franchise. Rating: 10/10 I'm going to do forwards tomorrow. I'll close it out with centers and then conclude with who I think should go.
The best option we have is to trade both Blake and Outlaw for a young, promising player, and an older, underacheiving player with big contract. But even that, our best option when it comes to trades might not be worth the chemistry hit. I don't see KP making a major move. I can't see him moving Bayless and I don't see him move Rudy, both are just too good to give up on. I think Blake and Outlaw are the two guys who'll see their minutes decline the most and that's not ideal for guys in contract year, so maybe trade them but not anyone else. Plus, you have to consider Blake and Outlaw both like to be here. maybe the best move right now is to give them an extension.
The problem is that we don't have a lot of holes. We don't need any more guards and small forwards. We could use a center, but once Greg and Joel are healthy, what then? I think we need to trade for a big man who an easily play both front court spots. Someone like Emeka Okafor or David Lee. Lee is a free agent this summer, so it would be a gamble. He's also playing at an All-Star level, so the asking price might be too high. I'm not sure what NY's plan is for him. I would assume he is their backup plan in case they can't sign LeBron, Wade, or Bosh. The problem is, he's a UFA, so he might just bolt from NY anyway. I really like Lee's game. I honestly wouldn't mind seeing him replace Aldridge.
so you don't really want to "thin the herd", you're looking for an upgrade, probably using Lamarcus and another player to add to his value. I can see that. But, you've got to ask yourself, is there anyone out there available for Lamarcus + ? who's much better than Lamarcus.
Also, a comment on your first post. you give Rudy 6/10, and I guess you're basing that on the high expectations all of us had. But if you look at his contract, age and potential, his value in trade is 9.
So, if we'll take the 2 players I mentioned, LA and Rudy, and for some reason decide we want to thin the herd or upgrade a starter, what PF would we get for that package? maybe someone plus pick?
Even Chris Bosh. I checked Kingspeed's PER link and saw Chris Bosh is the best availabe PF, would you trade LA and Rudy for him? is he that much better than LA? Our future lineup? Miller/Blake Roy/Bayless Webster/Batum/Outlaw Bosh/Cunningham Howard/Pendergraph
OK, I'll tell you what I think. Our starting five will be stronger. not by much. But you take Rudy out of the 2nd unit and you lose the euro-connection which is one of the coolest things we have. After our starting five (Miller, Roy, Webster, LA, Howard) it goes like this, from best to worst: 6. Batum 7. Rudy 8. Cunningham 9. Bayless 10. Outlaw 11. Pendergraph 12. Mills 13. Blake, But you also have to be PC so Blake moves to the top 12 over Mills and probably gets more minutes than Pendy who's our only backup C so he'll probably get more minutes than Outlaw and Bayless will get more minutes than Cunningham only because of Politics, also. So, realistically it'll be: Batum, Rudy, Bayless, Blake, Cunningham, Pendy, Outlaw. with Mills on the IR.
greg and joel being healthy again are big if's. we do not know if joel will ever be back or if greg can stay healthy.
I honestly think that if you could get Bosh for anyone but Roy, Bayless or Batum, you do it. I really think Bayless has Billups written all over him. Let's take Bayless' averages since the SA game, or since he has recieved fairly consistent playing time, and compare them to Billups' numbers in his second year. Bayless 12.1 ppg Billups 13.9 ppg Bayless 3.8 apg Billups 3.8 apg Bayless 24.8 mpg Billups 33.1 mpg Bayless 41% fg Billups 37% fg Bayless 4.5 FTA pg Billups 3.8 FTA pg Given that Billups played about 8 minutes more per game, I think it's safe to say that Bayless is better now than Billups was in his second year. I think Bayless is also a year younger in his second year than Billups was in his. Bayless has done his on a winning team, while Billups did his on a 14-36 team (strike year) Bayless is coached by McMillan and Billups had D'Antoni, so I shouldn't need to bring up pace, but Billups was in the 6th fastest pace offense that year as well.
So, I was all set to ridicule you for trotting out the tired "he could be Chauncey Billups" mantra by going to basketball reference and pulling a list of the myriad guards in the past 15 years to put up comparable numbers in their second year in the league. However, using 12 ppg, 3.5 apg, 3.5 FTA/g, and .370 FG%, I come up with 26 guards in that time frame who have done that in their second year, and the only ridicule-worthy name on the list is Chris Childs. So yeah, if Bayless can keep this up for the rest of the season, it would probably be a pretty decent indicator of future success.
I would agree with that, although I think I would add Oden to that group. If we could be assured that Bosh would extend with us, I'd do it. Gramps...
We can't be assured so I really don't understand why we keep bringing his name up. (Unless Toronto will take crap for him, which they won't)
Actually if you look at his age and his potential, he most likely doesn't have all that much room to improve. He's zeroing in on 24 years old, which at best you can probably expect small refinements to his game between now and his prime (27-29 typically). I think if a team had a need for a 3 point shooter and a slightly above average 2 guard who could put butts in their seats Rudy would be a great add, but I highly doubt he ever matures into a full blown star -- at best I see maybe 1 or 2 all-star appearances in his late twenties if he's a full time starter somewhere. I would however rank him a solid 7.5/10
Blake/Outlaw/Pendergraph for Dalembert Iggy/Pendergraph to Phoenix Amare/Blake/Outlaw to Philadelphia Dalembert to Portland
Your rating for Blake is way, way too high. I would give him a rating of 1 or 2 out of 10. I think Blake's absence would be a huge positive for the team.
Was not including Oden an oversight, or would you deal Oden for Bosh? I only ask because you put Oden in your first tier, when ranking players, above Roy.
No, it was not an oversight. Yes, I would deal Oden for Bosh. A front line of Aldridge/Bosh/Batum would be very good. Oden is Tier 1 because the game was our curent roster, and on our curent roster, Oden is the most important player.
