Dozens of players have suffered injuries-riddled careers. Therefore Oden likely will too. That's the very non-disingenuous stand.
The body parts have nothing to do with it. It has to do with observing and noticing the guy has a hard time staying healthy. Just like the previous players. If you observe a pattern that is repeatable, learn from it. Greg has a pattern of not being healthy. Those other players had the same pattern, injury type be damned. There are a lot of players that tend to be injury prone in the NBA, while others, seem to never get hurt. Some of them get over it in time (Grant Hill and Zidrunas Ilgauskas come to mind). So it may or may not mean anything, if you are willing to wait that long for the player you wanted, at a lower level of performance later in their career.
Other than the fact that Walton and Bowie were centers and wore Blazers uniform, there's no connection between them and Oden's health. Sure, lots of guys' bodies don't hold up to the pounding of the NBA, but it remains to be seen whether Greg is one of those guys or not. I don't blame you for having a sense of pessimism based upon past health problems for Blazers centers, but don't let it override logic. Greg's kneecap is healed by now and he's on the way to recovery. He may play the rest of his career without another serious injury or he could crash in training camp and never be heard from again. Either way, Walton's or Bowie's health issues won't be a factor in what happens.
Those other players sharing a "pattern" is meaningless. Yes, Oden may have a pattern (or two strokes of bad luck, which is possible). Whether Oden is incapable of staying healthy is completely unrelated to you having "seen a pattern" with Bowie and Walton. If you want to allege an injury pattern with Oden, that's fine. Maybe he does have one (IMO, it's too early to call it a pattern, but it is a worry). The fact that Walton and Bowie had one, though, has no bearing on this. It's like saying "I've seen someone flip 7 tails in a row on a fair coin, with two different coins. Now someone has flipped 3 tails in a row...I see where this pattern is going. I've seen this pattern before." Not that injuries are independent from each other like coin flips (that isn't the point of the analogy)...it's that completely different injuries to different players are independent from each other, and having seen injury "patterns" before, based on entirely different injuries, doesn't inform us on whether Oden will also have a career pattern of injuries or not. Just as having seen the unexpected result of 7 tails in a row before doesn't inform us as to whether 3 tails in a row is going to lead to that same result in this case.
Three injuries since he came into the NBA? The MF and the his knee-cap exploding. What's the third? The knee-cap bruise? Did he bruise his 5 dollar footlong?
There is no "allege" to the injury pattern. Has he not had repeated injuries to his knees? Are all the injuries to his knees? Were all of the injuries to Bowie with his leg? Were all the injuries to Walton with his foot? Were all of Grant Hills injuries to his foot? Were all of Zidrunas Ilgauskus injuries to his foot? I can't even believe you compared tossing a coin in the air to the chance of player being injured. Luck has nothing to do with it. Physics does.
He's had two injuries. Two isn't a pattern. It may or may not be the start of one, but it certainly isn't one already. Please re-read. I specifically said that wasn't what I was saying with the coin flip analogy.
This analogy doesn't quite wash. Saying it's a "coin flip" presumes that an injury is just as likely to occur as not. We all know that season ending injuries are not the norm for NBA players and are not what anybody would typically call 'common' events. It is possible that Greg has just had a rotten string of bad luck since his freshman year at Ohio State, but 4 bone or cartilage related injuries (one in each year) doesn't strike me as a fluke so much as an emerging pattern -- it just looks like his body may not be up to the rigors of professional basketball. Regardless, there's nothing to be done about it except hope he stays healthy next year, and hopefully the year after that, and the one after that. But if he has another major injury to his legs or knees it will be incumbent upon management to get over the whole notion of Greg as a foundational pillar for the organization, and adjust their long run plans accordingly.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but weren't all of these injuries to the same body part? Grant's injuries were the same spot. Same with Zydrunas and Walton and Sam. I believe Greg's injuries have been a microfracture on the inside of his right knee, due to cartilage issues (and was minor, iirc), and the other was a bone break on his left knee. Yah, they're the same body part, but they're not the same repeated injury (or causes) as with the players you mentioned above. Is it cause for concern? Sure. But i don't think it's a pattern.
Again, I specifically said that is NOT what I was saying: "Not that injuries are independent from each other like coin flips (that isn't the point of the analogy)" What I was saying is that seeing "patterns" in the past doesn't tell us anything about the current situation unless there are similar root causes. In that sense, it IS random...it's random whether Oden happens to be injury-prone like Walton or Bowie, just as it's random whether a person off the street has the same last name as you. What last name you got isn't random (it's based on your parents) but it is random whether someone unrelated to you has the same last name. Similarly, whether Oden is injury-prone is not random...but whether he is "like Walton and Bowie" is. If they had had similar injuries, then there would be merit comparing the players in terms of "patterns." But when they all suffered from different injuries, then I think it's no different than comparing unrelated, independent phenomenons like separate streaks of coin flips.
In his first 3 NBA seasons, Walton played in 151 games. Bowie played in 119. Oden will have played in 82. If you believe Oden does not have a "pattern" or "history" or "tendency" where injuries are concerned, nothing I can say will change your mind. If you admit he has a pattern of injuries, but just don't consider it a problem, nothing I can say will change your mind. Conversely, I'm too old and bitter to pretend this shit sandwich tastes like Philly Cheesesteak.
My relative who's a doctor believes Greg Oden hasn't grown into his body just yet and could still (have) been growing. No pun intended.
Oden's had two injuries that were season-ending. Sucks. It's a cause for concern. I still don't see a connection between those facts and the injury history of Bill Walton or Sam Bowie.
And another that caused him to miss 20, and a broken wrist that hampered him in his lone season OSU ...
Who knows? Greg certainly hasn't instilled me with a great deal of confidence that he'll have a long healthy career. He is a once in a generation talent though. I believe that. We absolutely have to give him all the chances we can. If he only has a couple of healthy seasons we can win a championship. I'm sure of it.
Nope ... Dwight Howard possibly is a a 'once in a decade' center, but Oden (despite all of the hype bestowed upon him in high school) is not a once in a generation center.
