Bayless and Webster need to be moved this summer

TO is our model for progress then? Ugh.

 

Why don't we look at the facts and form a basis on those instead?

Here's a recent list of lottery-picked guards. I've included their last season of college ball shooting percentages, both FG and 3PT, and their first back-to-back seasons where they received at least 12 minutes, an NBA quarter, of action per game.

2007 Draft:

Mike Conley - age 22 (college 52%/30% -> NBA first season 43%/33% -> NBA second season 44%/41% -> NBA third season 42%/42%)

2008 Draft:

Derrick Rose - age 21 (college 48%/34% -> NBA first season 48%/22% -> NBA second season 48%/25%
OJ Mayo age - age 22 (college 44%/41% -> NBA first season 44%/38% -> NBA second season 45% 39%
Russell Westbrook - age 21 (college 47%/34% -> NBA first season 40%/27% -> NBA second season 41%/25%
Eric Gordon - age 21 (college 43%/34% -> NBA first season 46%/39% -> NBA second season 47%/37%
DJ Augustin - age 22 (college 44%/39% -> NBA first season 43%/44% -> NBA second season 37%/37%)

OJ Mayo, the best collegiate outside shooter of this group didn't have any trouble adjusting to the NBA, shooting wise. The worst collegiate outside shooter of this group, Conley, went from below average in his first season to top tier in his next. Conley may prove to be the exception to this rule, but the odds are the better shooter you are in college, the better shooter you'll be in the pros. Only Acie Law comes to mind as a recent guard that shot well in college but since fizzled in the pros, and I think that more speaks to the rest of his game.

Bayless, only 21, shot 46%/41% in college. In just 12 minutes per game last season, he shot 37%/26%. Now with 18 minutes per game, he's shooting 41%/27%. As for shooting accuracy, I expect him to progress next year to Conley's second season, Mayo's first season, or DJ's first seasons. It's not likely his stroke would deteriorate to that of Rose or Westbrook, and he has a number of other offensive tools so he shouldn't go the way of an Acie Law.

I think some need to remember that he's just 21 and he's already playing well above a number of his contemporaries, Acie Law, Mike Conley, and DJ Augustin. IMO, and I'm surprised by this, Jerryd has a slightly higher PER than Gordon and Mayo, while also a lower Drtg than Mayo and the same as Gordon.

Obviously Rose and Westbrook are far and away better guards, but, Bayless is stacking up very nicely in the past three drafts amongst other similar players.

As a replacement to last season's Sergio and this season's Steve Blake, he's also proving to be a better option.

There could be better options out there, but they won't be available or the cost will be way too high. Bayless is producing and he's doing so cheaply for the next few seasons. He's young, so the odds are he's going to improve.

Trading him would be a massive mistake IMO.

 

He looks so-so from that hand picked group of guards. He looks pretty mediocre particularly when you look at 2009 lottery guard class which includes Evans, Harden, Curry, Flynn and Jennings.

 

I pretty much put that as worse case scenario for a player who still made it in the league, and yet improved their shot. Lets face it. If Travis hadn't done a lot of work, he would have never even reached the point of being a below average player.

 

In terms of shooting? If every player progressed like Outlaw in shooting skill, they'd be really fortunate.

 

The 2009 class is incomplete as I was wanting two seasons of Pro minutes to compare. I'll go check the others out though. I'm interested.

 

And the main reason for the comparison was to show that Bayless would likely improve his shooting, which other don't believe he will.

 

Count me as one of the doubters. I saw him live in Summer League when we drafted him and was excited by his moves to the rim. But his jumper looks identical from that summer. Not a lot of rotation and pretty flat. I'm not sure it's something he can unlearn at this point.

 

Exactly. All those guys learned by being thrown into the fire. The only team that wasn't throwing their draft pick into the fire, was the Blazers (pun fully intended!). Now look at all of those teams and where they are now. OKC passing the Blazers. Memphis creeping up on them. Charlotte has turned the corner IMO, they have plenty of talent to compete. Even look at what is going on in New Orleans with Paul out, their young guards are stepping up and getting better. They take their lumps, but they learn.

Now we are going to take our lumps. We are doing this so we can have a shot at having a higher level talent on the team. We weren't going to win jack shit in the playoffs this year anyhow, and nobody cares about all the teams that get jacked in the first and second round.

 

Nice post. The only thing I'd add is that Bayless went from a PER last year of 8.2 (in 12mpg) to this year's 15.2 (in 18 mpg).

That's a really, really nice improvement. I'd be shocked if there were many players in the entire league averaging over 12 mpg who saw that big of a jump.

To say that his shot won't improve just seems grossly, well, incorrect. The numbers show he's made massive strides from his rookie year. Imagine next year if he goes from 18 mpg to 28 mpg.

 

2009 Draft

James Harden - age 20 (college 49%/36% -> 39%/39%)
Tyreke Evans - age 20 (college 46%/27% -> 47%/27%)
Jonny Flynn - age 20 (college 46%/35% -> 42%/36%)
Stephen Curry - age 21 (college 45%/39% -> 46%/41%)
Brandon Jennings - age 20 (Euroleague 46%/27% -> 37%/38%)

It's worth mention, although this is skewed a bit for varying reasons, that Bayless, a year older, has a higher PER, than both Harden, Flynn, and Curry. This is sort of comparable as its each players first season of significant minutes. I'm too lazy to see exactly how many months older Bayless is to see if the age difference is important. I believe Curry is right around the same age as Bayless. Flynn's Drtg is worse than Bayless'. IMO. Curry has a slight advantage when comparing Drtg. Harden has an excellent Drtg.

Jenning's numbers in Euroleague are probably unfair to critique, given the small and inconsistent role. Jennings, a year younger has the same PER as Jerryd and a better Drtg.

Like Rose and Westbrook, Evans' poor outside shooting is translating similarly to the Pros. The rest shot well from college and are shooting well in the NBA. None here disturbs me, in relation to Jerryd. In fact, given his age, I'm glad that he is putting up better overall numbers than the majority of this year's rookies.

 

But if you saw him live at UofA, where his shot regularly fell true, you'd be a believer?

 

Growing pains, right. When we build through the draft, like we have, we got go through them. And it's not as Jerryd has been detrimental to our success over the season.

 

It sure is. He nearly doubled his PER. What I'm more concerned about is on the defensive side. His shooting, it'll be just fine.

 

I get what you are saying, but lets not go overboard. None of those guys should be considered untouchable.

 

I agree, but at the same time, this guy isn't even given them a chance. The second they start to look bad he is as down their throats as I am with some players with my emotions during games. I have not been a huge Rudy fan as of late and if we were to trade one of them I would prefer him to be traded first, but I don't think he should be traded just for the sake of it (unless we get a stellar return). These young guys will be inconsistent, I think that is a given, they have shown great flashes, but not consistently. This guy who started the post jumps at them once they start to suck without giving them a chance at all.

 

UR right.

Young guys who can't shoot the three always FAIL in the NBA. Guys like...Michael Jordan, George Gervin, Charles Barkley, Shawn Marion, Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Glen Rice, Josh Smith, etc...all teh suxor!

(all 22 or younger, shot 27% or lower on more than 50 attempts)

 

In a weird and twisted version of Forest Gump quotes: Young players are like a box of chocolates....you never know what you are going to get.

 

BTW, I know hindsight is 20/20, but I realy wish KP would have gone after Lawson on draft day. It looks like Denver may have gotten a nice steal in that trade.

In similar minutes to Bayless, he has the same scoring average, more rebounds and assists, and a *much* higher FG%.