The team that has won game #1 of a seven game series has ended up winning the series 79 % of the time!
LoL, you like that shit, brother? Microsoft Paint kicks ass! Here's another one (ever heard Alvin Gentry mic'd up in the huddle?):
For road teams that win Game 1, that stat dips to 57%. Still pretty good. Another stat, the road team has won 24% of the time in Game 2 after getting Game 1.
I think our chances fall in between (like really in-between, not 59% or something) -- we match up very well against them, with advantages that cause them grief even without Roy. The talent disparity (which is what normally drops that stat from 79% to 57%) is much smaller or even non-existent; it's only the crazy injuries that have made us 6th seed. That leaves only the fact that we open on the road, and that's basically been taken care of. If we can adjust to their adjustments in Game 2 (I expect they'll pound it into Amare and try to foul out Camby), and win Game 2... it's a sweep.
Well, it kind of makes sense. The road team is typically the inferior team (or else they wouldn't have the worse seed). Remember when the Sixers beat the Lakers in Game 1 of the Finals? Lakers basically overlooked them and Iverson got insanely hot. Lakers go on to steamroll them in 4 games straight. Perhaps even more applicable is how often a 4/5 match or a 3/6 series wound up after the visiting team won the first game. Because that would weed out a lot of the fluke "bad team got hot" or "great team came out flat" noise that goes into it. My guess is that it goes back up to around 70-80% in such instances.
It gets even better!!! http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarep...-suns-lose-portland-trail-blazers-game-1.html
