Warning, this is long and statisticky. I'm sure most won't like it. After reading the recent interview with Kevin Pritchard where he mentioned Wins Over Replacement Player (WARP? Why isn't it WORP? Whatever.) as a measuring tool, I though I'd look at our team in terms of where we might see some movement on our roster. For those who aren't familiar with the concept, it's a measure of how much better or worse a team would do if they replaced a player on their roster with an exactly average player. So presuming we had an exactly average roster, but then replaced one of those players with one of our players, here's how many wins we could expect to add. (I used 36 minutes per game and 82 games per season as a way to even out playing time and I only measured guys who got 500 or more minutes for the season.) Here's our roster. Greg Oden +6.78 Nicolas Batum +5.10 Brandon Roy +4.95 LaMarcus Aldridge +2.75 Marcus Camby +2.52 Andre Miller +2.11 Dante Cunningham +1.78 Martell Webster +.32 Rudy Fernandez -.005 Jerryd Bayless -.03 Joel Przybilla -.08 Juwan Howard -1.45 So, if you really believe in this stuff (and you assume we'll be healthy next season) we're set at the C, SF and SG positions. Aldridge and Miller are solid, but seem to leave room for improvement if we wanted to make a deal. Now, here are the point guards with higher WARP ratings than Andre Miller. Dwyane Wade 7.59 Chris Paul 6.43 Chauncey Billups 5.11 Steve Nash 4.83 Deron Williams 4.70 Luke Ridnour 4.25 Rajon Rondo 3.4 Jason Kidd 2.97 George Hill 2.54 Rodrigue Beaubois 2.28 Mo Williams 2.23 Ty Lawson 2.15 Andre Miller 2.11 Now some of these guys are too old to fit with our team. Some are too young and good to be traded. Chris Paul or Rajon Rondo have been rumored to be available and would be great replacements over Miller, but I have a feeling they won't end up going anywhere. That leaves two guys on my list... If Lebron leaves, maybe Mo Williams would be available? It seems possible to me that they would start the rebuilding process and try to get younger and as far under the cap for next season as possible. So an Andre Miller/Joel Przybilla/Rudy Fernandez/Jerryd Bayless/draft pick for Williams plus a contract deal might make some sense. They'd save a ton of money and get some prospects that might pan out. But the one obvious guy who would be a distinct improvement over Miller and who is absolutely available is Luke Ridnour. He's a free agent. He's from the Northwest. He's played for Nate McMillan before. He's 28 years old. He plays decent defense. He's better than Andre Miller. It seems like close to a perfect fit for us. I'd guess that the mid-level exception would be enough to land him, if he knows he's likely the starter, which means that Andre Miller would have to be shown the door. Now, on to the power forward position... Here are the guys I consider to be power forwards who rate higher than LaMarcus Aldridge. Pau Gasol 7.36 Dirk Nowitzki 5.80 Al Horford 5.16 Chris Bosh 5.07 Amare Stoudemire 4.98 Anderson Varejao 4.89 Carlos Boozer 4.78 Kevin Garnett 4.31 Chris Andersen 4.14 David Lee 3.92 Ryan Anderson 3.91 Shelden Williams 3.74 Troy Murphy 3.67 Josh Smith 3.41 Joakim Noah 3.36 Zach Randolph 3.24 Paul Millsap 3.18 Carl Landry 3.06 Amir Johnson 2.99 Brandon Bass 2.96 DeJuan Blair 2.94 Ersan Ilyasova 2.87 Nick Collison 2.76 LaMarcus Aldridge 2.75 This list is obviously longer than the PG list, and a little harder for me to pick out the guys who might be available. Chris bosh is obviously available, but do we have enough to get him? Maybe not. David Lee would be great, but is he available? Maybe not. I find Amir Johnson pretty interesting, but he's not a huge upgrade over Aldridge, so it's hard to say what he might do with more minutes. Utah is allegedly doing all they can to keep Boozer, so he may not be an option.
It's WARP because it means Wins Above Replacement Player I just thought it's worth mentioning that a "replacement" level player is not an "average" NBA player, replacement level is a free agent off the street like a D-league call-up, low level free agent, etc. from basketball prospectus:http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html#var
Alright, whatever. I based my numbers on an exactly average player, which gives the same sort of idea of player values.
Erm ... sorta, except by your reckoning it makes Rudy and Bayless (amongst others) closer to league "average" (ie. pretty good), when in fact they are rated right at replacement level -- which isn't great. (FWIW, WARP isn't the be all end all statistic, but when you add it together with other measurements it does create an interesting picture of a player). EDIT: I don't want this to devolve into an argument about advanced stats and their merits and flaws, you were basically saying that the team could probably stand an upgrade at power forward and point guard and I agree. Ridnour is a nice thought and is somebody I've wondered about as at least a good backup and somebody who could probably start in a pinch and play respectable ball, as for Aldridge he's going to be tough to move with his BYC status, so I'm guessing we're stuck with him for at least another year; we just have to hope he improves and takes another step forward or at worst we get his above average play and hopefully Greg stays healthy or another guy emerges to be that legit second scorer to play alongside Brandon as his "Robin" (though I prefer to think of it more like the relationship between Green Hornet and Kato )
Just don't go by stats alone. Use your noggin man. You know you wouldn't replace those 2 players with a lot of those guys on that list. Some of them are flat out dreadful. Have you watched Mo Williams in the playoffs the last 2 years? He has played like 2 solid halves of basketball during any meaningful series. Can we improve the team at several positions? Yes. Are 2 of those positions PF and PG? Yep. Are a lot of the guys on your list a real bad call to replace those 2? Yepperoni.
Ridnour is at best Blake. McMillan is not enamored of him. Same for many Sonics who played for Nate. We don't need to improve at PG. We need to improve at substitute PG (Bayless) and we haven't even tried Mills or Koponen yet.
