Warriors targeting OJ Mayo?

Steinmetz said last night on the CSN Bay Area show with Greg Pappa that OJ Mayo is a realistic target for the Warriors. The good thing about him is that he only has 1 guaranteed year left at $4.5 mils, and a team offer next year for $5.6 mils. So if he doesn't pan out, GS can let him go, and if he does, GS can take the bargain team offer, or sign him to a multi-year.

It makes sense given the open dialogue between Memphis and GS in the past. The OJ Mayo package for Monta was a realistic deal mid last season. I know it's been discussed before on the forums here.

First of all, let me say: Monta is better than Mayo! However, looking at the trade scenario as a whole, I for one am in favor of it. I think Mayo would fit nicely next to Steph Curry. Of Course, Monta does too. But hear me out for a minute.

OJ would fit good next to Curry because he's a very good (not great) shooter. He shot better 3pt FG% last year than Monta (38% vs. 34%), he also shot 1% better in FG (46% vs 45%), and better FT% (81% vs 75%). Curry will thrive off having perimeter guys who can knock down the open shot off of penetration. I think Mayo fits that pretty well as he's a good overall shooter (as opposed to just scorer).

Mayo is also listed as an inch taller than Monta, and 30 pounds heavier, at 6'4" 210lbs. I think he has better chance at guarding those bigger SGs (I know Monta has been very good given his size, and very scrappy). I just think that weight gives him an edge, regardless of other factors.

Mayo is also a full 2 years younger than Monta, and he's only been in the league 2 years. He's a young stud with plenty of room for growth.

He's also been producing since day 1. If you you look at his stat lines, his rookie year is like identical to his 2nd year. Yes, it would be better to see more improvement, but he set the bar pretty high in his rookie year! Both years it was basically 38 mins, 18 pts, 4 rebs, 3 asts, 45% FG, 38% 3ptFG, and 84% FT.

Okay, so, let me clarify: MONTA IS BETTER THAN MAYO.

I'm not trying to say otherwise. I'm just saying first that Mayo will fit good next to Curry. And second, that I'm in favor of the acquisition because of all the factors. Check it out:

If it were the original deal of Mayo/Thabeet/Haddadi, then you are getting a stud young combo guard plus two 7 footers, all prospects, IMO, at this point.

The best part about it, though, is that all three players as expiring contracts next year.

Mayo: $4.5 mils expiring
Thabeet: $4.8 mils expiring
Haddadi: $1.6 mils expiring

So even if nothing pans out, you're still getting $11 mils in expiring contracts! (Haddadi has a qualifying offer of 2 mils which GS could use to make him a RFA if he turns into Vlade, and Mayo has a team option which GS could elect to make if he turns into DWade, and Thabeet has a team option if he turns into Mutumbo). So GS gets the best of both worlds: NO financial commitment, with insurance on all three players in case any one of them capitalizes on their young potential.

I think it's worth taking a chance. If it were for Beans, It would be an obvious no-brainer to me. But even if it is for Monta.... I do it. I love Monta, but I do it. I take a chance on Mayo and inherit 2 7 footers with potential, and I know my ace in the hole is $11 mils in extra cap room if need be.

Oh, and Mayo can shoot. And Mayo can score. This kid is for real:


[video=youtube;ZjSe1Y-l3e0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjSe1Y-l3e0[/video]

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I'd rather have OJ Mayo than Rudy Gay; and that was before the stupid max contract.

 

I really would love for the Warriors to have a core of a Curry,Mayo backcourt with Childress at the 3 Wright/Udoh at the 4, and Jefferson/Turiaf at the 5. It doesn't seem like a stretch. I'm not sure what else would have to happen, but after dumping Maggs, I think that this could be possible

 

That was a good read. I can't argue with anything you said, you make some very good points.

There's still a part of me that thinks, especially with all these bullshit contracts that players have been getting recently, that Monta's contract is pretty damn reasonable. And honestly, I think Biedrins' contract is not bad either. I mean, when they signed the contracts I don't remember anybody really complaining that much. And besides Biedrins' most recent season, which I optimistically blame on his injuries, neither player has really disappointed on the court (besides the moped incident). At the time of their contract signings, I wasn't expecting either player to play much better than they actually have. [edit: Andris sucks balls at free throws more than I could have ever imagined] So, what players with a longterm contract are we really going to get to fully-replace these guys at less money? If OJ plays at Monta's level, he'll want Monta money...or more money the way things are going lately. I dunno...I'm hungover, and I'm rambling. I am just sick of years and yeeaaaars of watching ex-Warriors kill it on other teams. I don't wanna watch Monta score 50 points in a Memphis jersey. But at the end of the day, you're right, that would probably be the smarter move. I just don't get why we can never develop a good rookie and have him play his career with us. It's like we're the best team in the NBADL.

 

No, I think you're dead on, I think most of us feel just like you.

But, IMO, I think we have found a prize jewel to build around. That is Steph Curry. Honestly, I see him being a Warrior for life (fingers crossed). So, for me, the bigger question becomes: how can we build around Curry? And one of my first answers is to get some perimeter guys who can shoot (it's why I love Morrow). Now, Mayo isn't a Morrow-type shooter, but he would be pretty good IMO.

But you're right, It's not that Monta's contract is bad. In fact, he's got a terrific contract based on production. But if you look at all the factors involved in this potential trade, I think it works nicely with the question of how to build around Curry.

 

Since Memphis seems to be loaded, let's let them have Monta's contract too. LOL

 

Lol, just wanted to make sure I made that clear!

Well, Monta would be taking away the same minutes that OJ Mayo would have, either way. Plus, maybe they think Monta could play point in front of Conley? Either way though they will have to confront that issue, Monta or no Monta...

And hey, lay off Haddadi, this is like the only 7 foot Iranian man on the planet, and besides, according to his wiki, Haddadi has also made a cameo appearance in the Iranian drama series Mokhtarnameh, so if the NBA doesn't work out he's always got soap operas.

Plus, he looks kind of like Vlade.

 

Man, there sure are a lot of empty seats in Memphis.

 

I am not that high on trading Monta for Mayo. I think Monta was playing last year on a close to superstar level at periods of the season last year. But maybe there can be a third team involved in some kind of deal like this where the Warriors get something like Mayo and perhaps Al Jefferson, which may make it more enticing.

 

I'm totally down for that. Jefferson's making $13 mils this year, but damn he's been productive. It's two bad Minny has two AWESOME centers and has to choose between one of them, but C'Mon! Al Jefferson has been a stud, I don't care what type of offense your teams run.

His stats the last 3 years:

07-08 35.6 mpg 0.500 FG% 0.721 FT% 11.1 RPG 1.4 BPG 21.0 PPG
08-09 36.7 mpg 0.497 FG% 0.738 FT% 11.0 RPG 1.7 BPG 23.1 PPG
09-10 32.4 mpg 0.498 FG% 0.680 FT% 9.3 RPG 1.3 BPG 17.1 PPG

Yes his minutes went down last year, in part because of Kevin Love, and thus his numbers dipped a bit... but what, dipped to 17pts 9reb? That's still very, very solid from a 25 year old center. And the prior 2 years, when he was getting more minutes, he averaged 22/11. That's a serious double double machine.

Let's get him, too!

Let's do a 3-team package deal to get Mayo/AJ...

 

Sounds good to me. Then just sign Childress and/or pickup a guy like Battier and I'll be an extremely happy camper.

 

Now we're talking. Although Houston is using Battier to try and sign-n-trade for Bosh/Stoudamire. If Battier could be had for the MLE, that would be a dream, but he should get 6-7 mils, because of what he brings, I would imagine. Or, if he could be had for MLE, he would go to one of the many contenders, probably.

What does Childress want? It seems like with the crazy money being thrown around, Childress was smart to go overseas, rumors are that Washington wants to sign him, he could get a pretty solid multi-year deal.

It's probably a long-shot, but could GS pry away Corey Brewer from Minny? He's a 6'9" defensive-minded SF and he's only making $3.7 mils.

I know we're just playing fantasy, but money-wise, GS could give up Monta/Beans and receive Mayo/Brewer/Jefferson in return.

Steph Curry
OJ Mayo
Corey Brewer
Anthony Randolph/Brandan Wright
Al Jefferson

I like that a lot. The problem is, I'm having a hell of a time making a trade work using the trade machine, not because the numbers won't work, but because I can't figure out who would want to take Biedrins' contract.

I mean, I love the guy, but $9 mils for 5pts / 8reb / injury prone / horrific FT shooter -- it's just not attractive. A few years back, we were talking Beans vs. David Lee... now, it's Beans vs. Turiaf...

Honestly, GS is getting too good of a deal giving up Monta/Beans for Mayo/Jefferson/Brewer. That's just too good. Maybe if we toss in Brandan Wright.

Anyway, here are a few trades that work, they're just probably not too realistic:

First, Minny gets Monta/Thabeet/Arthur, Grizz get Beans/Wright, we get Mayo/Jeff/Brewer:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=3a4vtb4

But why would Grizz want Beans/Wright, you ask... I have no clue. The Grizz would just laugh at this one.

Here's another. This one makes a bit more sense, I guess:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=375h2n3

Minny gets several young prospects in Wright, Arthur, Thabeet, as well as Beans. Grizz get Monta. I think Monta for Mayo/Arthur/Thabeet is fair. I just don't know how Minny would feel. Although they're getting 4 players to move Jeff (which they want to do anyway). But to toss in a good player in Brewer. Now Minny would probably laugh at this one.

Can anybody find a team that would value/want Beans. Because right now, I don't see it.

Basically, the only way GS gets Jefferson is to give them Monta, and the only way to get Mayo is to give them Monta, but the problem is we don't have 2 Montas.

 

I feel that it wouldn't be helpful to move Monta for Mayo. I like Mayo, but like you noted, the major difference is just having more money next season. But if we re-signed Mayo, most of that money would be gone anyway. If we don't re-sign Mayo, the young talent available on the market is somewhat limited, and we may not be able to attract players without giving them the feeling that we're surrounding them with a good enough team.

On the other hand, I agree with building around Curry, and between Monta and Mayo building around them is the same too. I've been saying that having a defensive/creative-focused wing would be ideal to pair around Monta and Curry, because they need the help on defense on certain nights. (It was clear with Monta especially who locked down certain players, but in other games, didn't play defense at all - my thinking was he couldn't keep up the energy level to play consistent defense with the minutes and wear and tear he was accumulating). Childress is probably looking for something in the $7-8 million per year range and would be a decent fit, though his jumper always looked a bit odd. As far as other free agent targets, my top choice would be Ronnie Brewer, who I feel is a bit underrated as a player, who hopefully should fall into MLE range. He's a good defender, manages to do the little things well like getting to the line and picking up loose rebounds, and is capable of distributing (he was a PG for two years in college until switching to SG/SF, though he's not the greatest passer, he's at least got the mind for it, plus he's got great ballhandling skills). Like Childress, his outside shot isn't great, but both players are pretty crafty and able to get themselves higher percentage shots.

 

Just to stir the pot a bit, I just read that Memphis is lukewarm on Mike Conley:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/features/rumors#17585

If that's true, maybe the Warriors could pounce on him.

This trade works:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2bcdety

Monta Ellis for Mike Conley / OJ Mayo. GS gets two young guards with potential (actually, they have both been quite productive in their short careers). Also, both young players are in the final year of their contracts, so there's no financial commitment (actually, GS would pick up about $1.7 mils of space the day the trade is made).

GS gets a young PG to back up Curry (and to compete with Lin), and they get a proven lottery pick young stud (IMO, for reasons stated in OP) in Mayo. I do love Monta, but I just have two problems with him: first, I think he's overrated, and I can't imagine when his trade value will ever be better than it is right now. In fact, I imagine it will drop from here on out. Second, I just don't think Curry can be his best until every one accepts that he is the man. This is hard to do with Monta on the team. Monta will still be going and-1 for 20 shots a night, and while he can score, I just don't know if that's what's best for the overall team. With this trade, there is no doubt whose team it is. Even David Lee would tell you it's Curry's team then.

 

AO, I think you make a good argument but from everything I've heard, the Warriors are dead set on having Monta play on the team this season. Larry Riley answered with a resounding "YES!" when asked if Monta's playing this year. If the Warriors were the ones that rejected this trade (can anyone confirm?), then there's no reason why they would all of a sudden revisit it now. They're obviously not that enamored with OJ Mayo.

Although the financial benefit of this trade is inciting, I think the Warriors should wait to see what type of player Monta is going to be this year before doing anything. He may turn out to be a super bargain based on his performance and he may turn out to be worth way more than OJ Mayo, fillers, and cap flexibility.

 

AO, I think you make a good argument but from everything I've heard, the Warriors are dead set on having Monta play on the team this season. Larry Riley answered with a resounding "YES!" when asked if Monta's playing this year. If the Warriors were the ones that rejected this trade (can anyone confirm?), then there's no reason why they would all of a sudden revisit it now. They're obviously not that enamored with OJ Mayo.

Although the financial benefit of this trade is inciting, I think the Warriors should wait to see what type of player Monta is going to be this year before doing anything. He may turn out to be a super bargain based on his performance and he may turn out to be worth way more than OJ Mayo, fillers, and cap flexibility.

 

I wouldn't make that deal unless they tossed in Xavier Henry instead of Haddadi or Thabeet. Monta for Mayo, Henry and Haddadi would be a fair deal. They get a stud 2 and hometown hero for OJ Mayo who hasn't panned out for them. OJ is pretty mediocre in the NBA and his strongest suit is his shooting and 3-pointers while Monta is a scorer and better in every other way. Ellis has a flat contract so his value goes up every year.

Monta Ellis
Golden State
Position: Guard
Height: 6-3 Weight: 180
High School: Lanier HS (Jackson, MS)
2009-10 Statistics
PPG 25.5
RPG 4.0
APG 5.3
SPG 2.2
BPG 0.4
FG% 0.449
FT% 0.753
3P% 0.338
MPG 41.4

O.J. Mayo
Memphis
Position: Guard
Height: 6-4 Weight: 210
College: USC
2009-10 Statistics
PPG 17.5
RPG 3.8
APG 3.0
SPG 1.2
BPG 0.2
FG% 0.458
FT% 0.809
3P% 0.383
MPG 38.0

 

The only reason to do any of these trades would be to keep the Warriors as an under 25 years old team.

Like AO said Monta is better than Mayo and Monta has been improving where as Mayo may have not, looking at his stats. I would only trade Monta for someone who is better or someone who is on the same level as him who may play a different position or is more of a true two perhaps like Iguadala. But even then I am not sure I'd do that trade. I really think Monta was playing at a level that was comparable to the elite in the league with the likes of D Wade and Kobe (ok ok, maybe a level just below these two, yet still at a high level). I hope the team is very reluctant to deal him. I'd like to see this starting line up intact for the season with Curry-Ellis-Wright-Lee-Biedrins. If for some reason it does not work then we can open up possibilities for trades concerning this starting five.

I think the team comes before any one player and losing so much talent does not make much sense.