CP3 only gains leverage over time and loses value as his displeasure becomes more clear. NOH is on the clock and my feeling is pulling the trigger on a trade of either he or Collison this summer nets them the most value. They either need to trade Collison to convince CP3 to stay or they need to trade CP3 before his leverage increases and trade value due to desperation decreases. That is to say over time other teams and CP3 gain more leverage on a lopsided trade to NOH's detriment. I forgot to mention trading Collison is risky, because if they don't satisfy CP3's championship caliber team aspirations he might bolt in two years or at best for them, leave them with minimal value (for him) in a Torontoesque trade. Then if they've traded Collison they are really screwed.
Common sense. If he's not traded this year he will be traded no later then summer of 2012. He's not finishing his career in NOH that much is crystal clear to me. In my mind NOH's best move is to trade him now before the reek of desperation is truly intense.
Miller and Co. have messed this team up so bad this year I expect them to offer Roy, Oden and Aldrige plus $ and picks, so good chance we'll get him. And miss the playoffs for the next several years.
New Orleans loss. CP3 will not be a Hornet in 2013 unless there is some incredible restriction on Free Agents in the new CBA. He'll be traded it's just a question of when and to who?
The longer the Hornets wait, the more or less a chance we have. If they wait tell the trade deadline, our young guys will either give us a nice, stronger case, or a much weaker case than now. Does Bayless get any better/improve? Does his jumper improve? Does his scoring improve? Passing? Or does he stay near the same or even decline? I think we have to give Bayless opportunity if we are trying to showcase our assets, that means Armon Johnson or Mills or whoever will be on the bench while Bayless is backup PG again. What about Rudy? Does he raise his value a little more? Does he not complain while stepping up and showing his rookie season was the real Rudy? Or does he show that the Sophmore season was the real Rudy? Who knows. What about Batum? Does he improve his game? His scoring, will it go up? How about his 3 point percentage/shooting/passing/dribbling? Does he become an elite defender? Or does he pretty much stay the same as last year and have no significant improvement (if this were the case, that could be a bad thing for us). Also, does he suffer another injury to his shoulder or maybe at another place? If so does that make him a little injury prone especially if the injury comes to his shoulder again. You already know what you have in Miller, Pryzbilla, and Camby if Hornets would even want Camby. Miller and Pryzbilla are expirings anyway, so it doesn't matter what they do. It seems our potential deal can either kill us or really help us if the Hornets wait it out. I should mention a person like Dante too, however, I don't think he gets much playing time anyway, unless he is the backup PF. What about Wes Matthews, is he someone we look to trade assuming he improves and shows he is a great defender and maybe become more of a scorer? Hornet may not like his contract unless he makes a big jump in his game.
My point was NOH is on the hot seat not us. Also we can't FORCE them to trade him. I mean we could be completely stupid and offer Roy + LMA + Oden for him and Okafor, but we can't MAKE them trade him. My point was that NOH is feeling the pressure and that will only increase over time also CP3's relative value as a trade chip will decrease. This would be due to increasing calls for a trade and the leverage that gives other teams will only increase. NOH needs to deal him this summer in my opinion for them to maximize value. They aren't going to be title contender and trading Collison for an additional roleplayer or burnt out former All-Star doesn't put them over the top, it only robs them of their post CP3 future which to me is inevitable.
If he's traded, I think Portland has a 75% chance of landing him. I think there's a 25% chance he's traded (looking ahead only as far as the next trading deadline). Ergo, I think there's an 18.75% chance that Paul is a Trail Blazer before the next trading deadline.
25% chance he is traded. If he is traded, maybe a 20% chance it is to the Blazers. Total: 5% Paul becomes a Blazer.
Andre & Pryz ECs + Camby + (Rudy & Jerryd) or if we have to (Rudy & Nic) or if we really have to (Jerryd & Nic) FOR CP3 + Emeka = PG: Paul/Williams SG: Roy/Matthews SF: Cunningham/Babbit PF: LA/Pendergraph C: Oden/Okafor In terms of making NO happy (what they're getting back) AND providing CP3 a winner (his destination team's roster), what can NY, ORL, DAL offer to outbid us??
I see it shaking out this way: Paul will be traded at the very earliest in his contract year (right after the league resumes business following the lockout) at that point in time the Blazers will not have any expirings to offer and will be looking down the barrel of extending Nic Batum's deal ... and Armon Johnson will be firmly entrenched as a top 30 point guard in the league, so there will be no need to trade for Paul. Chance of Paul becoming a Blazer? 0%
