Aren't most mock drafts trying to predict what will happen rather than list the players with the most potential?
We can't go back in time with the ability to predict the future. I'm fucking sick and tired of douchebags like Simmons and John Lund yammering away about this.
I think it was a heavy debate at the time. I remember pondering that very lineup, but if the Blazers HAD done that, they still would have had to move ZBO. There's no way Randolph could have coexisted with Roy AND Durant. I also think we've learned over the years that there's no way LMA could have been our center. Maybe in bits here in there, but he's just not a center.
One recent bit of damning evidence against Oden is the 6th grade hip fracture. That's a huge deal imo. And it was never spoken of during the draft deliberation. Critics were quick to rundown his litany of physical setbacks including forgettable ones like the summer league tonsillectomy. Yet no mention of an early development injury that could have corrollary consequences later in life. I find it very odd it surfaces now. If was widely known at the time, I think the public opinion would have been more divided. Also, although admittedly I bought into the rhetoric at the time, the idea that we were choosing between a guy who would get us rings vs a scoring champion is pretty silly. Scoring champions have won championships and/or go deep into the playoffs. Hindsight tends to be more bitter than sweet for Blazer fans.
The thing was, I think we all knew who Durant would be. It's not like he was overlooked. It was a calculated risk and the Blazers chose wrong, but I still think there wasn't the clear warning signs that some would like us to think.
I will say this. I got off from a plane on the day of the lottery to find a voicemail from my brother saying we got the number 1 pick and Seattle got #2. The FIRST thing that entered my mind was Bowie/Jordan. I thought oh FUCK, here we go again. What if we pick Oden, he busts, and Durant becomes a superstar. It was all laid out for us again and we picked the big guy. I was in favor of Oden, by the way. Can't turn down a possible Ewing for a possible Tracy McGrady, I thought. Especially since we had Roy and Aldridge and a great cast of role players and three point threats- Jones, Webster, Outlaw, Blake, Rudy(coming)- to surround him with. I thought we'd trade Randolph for a stud SF (Marion, Jefferson, Rashard Lewis, Prince) and win the championship in 2-3 years. Obviously, here we are. It didn't happen. But I knew on that day in May that it could be Bowie all over again. I knew it. Other GMs had to know it too.
Oh and by the way, didn't Durant fail some sort of predraft training thingy? If I remember right, Oden passed and Durant didn't. He couldn't bench a certain weight or something. Anyone remember what I'm talking about? Don't make me look it up.
I suspect the whole Bowie comparison crossed everyone's minds at some point, but who would have thought history would repeat itself?
Like you said, we knew what Durant was going to be. We didn't miss that. We just thought Oden was the better pick for winning and winning long term. Maybe we will win with him yet, but it's not going to be with the teammates we envisioned for him.
Articles like this one assume that Durant would have had the same number and quality of touches his first year had he come to Portland instead of going to Seattle. That simply isn't true. Durant, at best, would have been second in the pecking order in Portland. Third if the Blazers retained Z-Bo. Durant had a very rough first year in the league but being thrown into the fire is what made him the player he is today. For example, Durant's first year in the league he had a usage rate of 28.1%. B-Roy that same year (the one where the team was declared to be his) had only a 24% usage rate. I kind of doubt Durant would have had the same amount of touches had he come to Portland. Not even close. In addition, Durant was fucking horrible at defense his first year. Since Nate loves to have guys only do certain things AND the small forward in Nate's system is pretty much a defender that stands in the corner taking threes, I find it hard to believe Durant would have had the same chance to shine. Durant went to the exact team he needed to go to to have success in this league. There is absolutely no reason to believe his career would have followed the same path in a different environment.
I'd be willing to take that risk over having a guy who doesn't even play. In hindsight, of course. Plus, the opposite argument could be made that Durant would be a more rounded player had he played with two other primary scoring options in ZBO and Roy while playing on a team competing for the playoffs.
Well, that may have something to do with him carrying Team USA this summer and having a very sore knee right now. Still, he's playing at a 21.6 PER while being in and out of the line-up.
I don't doubt for a minute that Portland would be much better off today if they had drafted Durant instead of Oden. What I have a problem with is Simmons assumption that you can just take Durant's numbers now and move them onto Portland's team without any kind of adjustment for pace, usage, role, etc. I find that kind of analysis lazy and pointless.
No one will agree with me, but I think the same is true for Jordan. Had the Blazers drafted him instead of Bowie, Jordan would have been less of a player. He got the best coaching a SG could get from former #1 pick Doug Collins, then Phil Jackson, maybe the greatest basketball coach in history. Here, he would have competed with Drexler and others in the pecking order. The league office wouldn't have encouraged small market Portland to win championships as much as it did underused giant market Chicago. (Jordan would have become great, but just not as great.) Under McMillan, Durant would have struggled almost as much as Batum does now. Durant would have become a league star, but it would have taken more years.
Bench presses; KD couldn't do a single bench press. I remember thinking "Why on earth would we draft the 90lb weakling?"
I can totally see it; I also think Jordan wouldn't have resigned with us after his rookie deal. Same with Durant; I think both would (just like I think Oden might) becomes superstars on some other team, leaving Portland in the dust.
