I'll take the 8th seed gladly

Well, you just had to get all technical with facts and all, huh? Well, another fact: he has a lot more first round exits than Finals appearances or MVP's . . . especially in the last 2-3 years.

 

Who scares you more at this point in their careers, Dirk or Duncan? Honestly, I wouldn't mind playing either team, but I think San Antonio is old and they don't have the juice to go far in the playoffs.

 

If we were just playing 5 on 1 against either Dirk or Duncan, I think we'd beat either one of them fairly handily. But to answer your question, I'd be more scared of playing against Dirk because he, by himself, is more dangerous than Tim by himself. But "knowing" how to win in the playoffs is one of those intangibles you can't argue against. And who knows better how to win championships - the Spurs or Dirk?

 

But then again, let's not get all crazy with talk of the playoffs. That one guy, whatever the hell his name was, kept reassuring us that we weren't going to make the playoffs and that we were so desperate that we had to sign that Johnson kid for the D-League. We're soooo not making the playoffs.

 

I want OKC. If not them, then Dallas. I don't want the L*kers (no way the refs allow them to lose in the 1st round) and I think the Spurs rope-a-dope the season. They conserve their energy during the regular season and then it's like they have a nitrous switch for the playoffs.

 

The team that fears no one, scares everyone.

 

I think I got that in a fortune cookie once.

 

How is Manu not a closer?

 

A rolling stone gathers no moss?

 

Hollinger predicts us at 6th against the Mavs at 3rd. I'd rather face them than the Lake Show, to be honest. I think we could upset the Mavs.

 

Would you compare him to a Dirk or a Roy (when he was healthy) in terms of closing ability?

 

I don't agree at all. Regardless who the Blazers play it will be tough for them.

But Dirk is way better than Duncan this year. The Mavs have way more depth at center than in the past. I really don't think the Celtics and Lakers would prefer facing Dallas than San Antonio right now. Let alone giggle about it.

Now Manu is a problem........

 

I'd say he's pretty close, yes.

 

Stern's minions won't let Portland defeat LA, especially early on, which is mainly why I'd rather end up in the other side of the bracket from them. LA is an old team too so bumps & bruises linger. No doubt they're the favorite in the West, but a twisted ankle to a key player could easily derail them

I put Portland's chances against anyone else at least at 50%, but probably the least vs Denver as Nene can defend LA somewhat. For everyone else in the West, Aldridge is a matchup nightmare that will require double teams which (of course) creates spacing for their shooters.

STOMP

 

Great conversation. Lot's of great points. And the thread is still on topic. Yeah. It's good to be on S2. Thanks, Denny!

Players play the game, but don't underestimate Popovich, and don't underestimate Phil. The know how to prepare their teams for the playoffs, they know how to make playoff adjustments, and they know how to manipulate the refs.

Speaking of manipulating the refs, don't forget this is David Stern's party, so don't underestimate David Stern. (Yes, I went there. I've seen it too many times to bury my head in the sand.) Having said that, don't underestimate one of David Stern's darlings, The Oklahoma City Durant's.

I want Portland to be the wild card team that no one wants to face. I think the Blazers can become that team.

Despite the league's Durant love, I think I'd rather play the Durant's due to their inexperience, and I like our front court matchups. Dallas would be a fun series. That whiny bitch Dirk takes a lot of pleasure out of the game for me and works the refs like no other; all the better to beat his ass. I think we can work them. I'd least like to face the Flake Show. I don't know what to think about the Spurs, but for some reason they don't scare me that much. But then, they just go about their business and win. Go figure.

 

I've already said it about OKC, their biggest strength in my eyes is Westbrook's ability to take the ball to the hole and Durant's ability to shoot from the outside. It causes mismatches, big players are supposed to stop the smaller, much faster but also very strong Westbrook inside and wing-players are supposed to guard Durant on the perimeter even though he's "longer" than most SFs, not to mention SGs/PGs that could be matched with him if we play Zone.
How you solve this problem I don't know. I think BNM is right by saying Gerald Wallace could be an asset when defending OKC but considering most of his minutes come as a Power-Forward with Aldridge inside, we wouldn't really be able to use him on the perimeter guarding Durant.

It's possible that we totally alter our defense, for example making Batum (or Wallace?) a Durant-stopper and let him play man-to-man defense. It's possible but I wouldn't recommend it! I think even when met with special circumstances like with OKC, it's always the best policy to stick to what the team does best and try to make the other team adjust moreso than you do. I think we should play OUR game and not get too carried away in scouting them. The players should be aware of what Durant and Westbrook (and to a lesser extent Harden, Ibaka, etc.) are able to do but the general structure of the defense should remain or they would feel out of their element. Even adjustments that seem to make sense (putting Batum one-on-one on Durant, for example) could cause confusion, hurt the players' confidence and I think would give OKC a bigger chance of winning.

 

In all honesty, I'd like to avoid just two teams in the first round: LA and OKC. Both make their living on the line, and our short rotation would get eaten alive by the foul-drawing machines that are LA and OKC. It has nothing to do with raw talent, just reputation with the refs. I don't want those three jackholes deciding every game.

 

With Wallace, Batum, Aldridge, Camby and Matthews, we have lots of options on defense. With our current starting 5, you could put Wallace on Durant and Batum on Ibaka, or vise-versa -mix it up a bit so neither player gets exhausted or in foul trouble. You can also put Matthews on Westbrook and let Miller guard Sefolsha/Harden. The Blazers can go big, or small, as necessary and always have an above average defender on Durant.

Durant will still get his points, but with multiple good perimeter defenders, the Blazers can make him work for them and take a lot of shots to get his points. Durant's scoring average and shooting percentages are down this season compared to last. He really needs a lot of shots to get his points. He only shoots 0.359 from 3-point range, but still jacks up almost five 3-pointers a game. And, that's against average defenders. Put above average defenders on him the entire game, and his scoring efficiency likely goes down even more.

Durant and Westbrook are OKC's most dangerous players, by far, and with multiple good, versatile defenders, I think the Blazers match up good against them. And, with Aldridge and Camby, the Blazers have better size, rebounding and scoring inside than the Thunder. Perkins helps them a bit in the defense and rebounding departments, but gives them one less scorer on the court than they had with Jeff Green, and nobody they have can guard Aldridge 1-on-1.

I still like this match-up MUCH better than multi-time champions Spurs and Lakers, or deeper, more experienced Dallas.

BNM

 

Actually, that's one of the reasons I want to avoid LA and SAS. Both Pop and Phil have the refs in their hip pockets, especially come play-off time. They know how to work the refs to maximum advantage.

BNM