ESPN Pro's vote 3 out of 7 that Blazers come out on top

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2011/matchup/_/teams/trailblazers-mavericks

Abbot (Thought he was a Blazer fan?!?!) - Dallas in 7

Adande - Dallas in 7

Broussard - Dallas in 7

Ford - Blazers in 6

Holligenger - Blazers in 6

Legler - Blazers in 6

Stein - Dallas in 7

Thorpe - Dallas in 6

 

They're all thinking it's going to be a close series. Good to hear.

 

Yeah except for the last guy, who thinks Dallas will beat us in 6; almost all of them are thinking Blazers win only if it's game 6 (because of home) or Dallas wins in 7 (because they have HC)

 

Dallas in six is still us winning two. There aren't any four or five game predictions.

 

Yeah, and then Espn asks these guys which of their picks they feel most shaky about (http://espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=5-on-5-110414), and lots of them are on their Blazers-Mavs picks:

Hollinger: . . . Not exactly feeling ironclad about my Mavs-Blazers pick, either.

Ford: Blazers over Mavs. I have no faith in Dallas as a playoff team, but I'm not in love with Portland, either. That series is a real toss-up for me.

Adande: Mavericks over Trail Blazers. The Mavericks are a little too one-trick-pony for my tastes -- and what if Dirk Nowitzki has some cold stretches? Portland is so deep and scary after acquiring Gerald Wallace, and LaMarcus Aldridge could cancel out Dirk. But the Blazers were going to be too trendy a pick … and the Mavs can't keep losing in the first round, right?

Abbott: I picked Dallas over Portland. The Mavericks have home court, but the reinvigorated-by-Gerald Wallace Blazers got the opponent they were hoping for. It's a toss-up. And it's possible that I picked against my favorite team because I still have the taste of balut in my mouth from last year.

 

I would have to agree with them. It really depends on which teams show up for this series. If Dallas brings their A game and Portland has theirs, then I pick Portland. But the true concern is both teams don't show up all the time. This is why everyone's picks are shaky. Also, Dallas can have 3-4 games of extremely sharp shooting; which would be really bad for the Blazers. Regardless, I like that both sides are a bit uncertain about this match-up. I think they would be more certain if they could pick right after they play 2 games.

 

Happy to be the Underdog. Were gonna bite hard. I see no problems with us winning in Dallas, it's all about Defense.

 

Actually, 3:4 odds seems about right to me. Dallas is the favorite, with the higher seed, better record and HCA, but this series could go either way.

The good thing is I value the opinions of the three that picked the Blazers over the four that didn't. Hollinger tries to come up with a formula for everything, and things don't always go as calculated, but at least he has some solid research and data behind his predictions. Stein just goes by his emotional gut feel, and that's much less bankable.

In any case, I like our chances. The two games we lost to Dallas were both close, and before we had Gerald Wallace. We've beaten them twice in the last month. So, recent head-to-head favors us. As does recent play, in general. Our bigger guards will give them fits. And, we now have mulitiple really good defenders, both bigs and on the perimeter. The game slows down in the playoffs, which places even greater importance on defense and rebounding. With Camby, Aldridge, Wallace, Batum and Matthews we have five above average to elite level defenders. Dallas can't match that. Their best perimeter defender, Stevenson, is an offensive zero, and their offensive minded guards/wings (Terry, Beubois, Barea and Peja) are absolutely horrible defenders.

If this was football, with different players playing offense and defense, I'd give Dallas a much better chance, but in basketball, where everyone plays both ways, I give the edge to the Blazers. In order for Dallas to put a decent defensive team on the court, they have to sacrifice offense. If they go for offense, their defense sucks. With players like Wallace, Batum, Matthews, and Aldridge, Portland can field a team that plays great defense, but can still score at the other end and I think that's what tips this series in Portland's favor.

BNM

 

Great take and repped!

 

Thanks. I've always placed strong emphasis on defense and rebounding - especially in the post season. Starting with the addition and Marcus Camby last season, and continuing with the acquisitions of Wesley Matthews and Gerald Wallace, Portland has greatly improved in both areas. This current roster would have easily beaten Phoenix in the playoffs last year (with Gerald Wallace, no way could Alvin Gentry put Grant Hill on Andre Miller and "hide" Steve Nash on defense). This is a roster that is much better suited to playoff success than the one we had last season.

And the only missing piece keeping them from being a legimate championship contender is a healthy Greg Oden. I hope we see that at some point in the not too distant future. Just the thought of adding a healthy Greg Oden to this roster makes me salivate with the possibilities. Combine Oden patrolling the paint with Aldridge, Wallace, Batum and Matthews and Portland could field the best inside/outside defensive unit in the league. And while Andre Miller isn't a great 1-on-1 defender, he plays very smart team defense. He studies film, knows what plays the other teams run and knows the tendencies of his opposing PGs. He knows how to, and is strong enough to, fight through and slip screens, and how to play the passing lanes and funnel players to the help defense.

But, I'm getting ahead of myself. It would also be nice to add a 100% healthy Brandon Roy to the current mix, but that's never going to happen. With our former best player and 3 time all-star being a shadow of his former self, this season could have been a disaster. The additions of Matthews and Wallace, combined with the improved play of Aldridger averted that disaster and makes us a stronger team heading into the playoffs this year than last. I'm really looking forward to the start of this series!

BNM

 

BNM... Yep this team has this mojo they've been missing for a very long time. I think their mojo is way more stable than even the Pippen era Blazers. Every player has their head on straight, wants to win and knows what's needs in terms of "team first mentality". You gotta love it!

And One can only wish what it will be like with Oden in the mix. I still have a lot of hope regarding Roy. I mean the kid has only 2 months since surgery. I'm not packing him in just yet.

 

Advanced statistical breakdown of Blazers vs Mavs for anyone that likes this kind of stuff

http://basketballvalue.com/teamvsteam.php?year=2010-2011&team1=DAL&team2=POR

Then flip it

http://basketballvalue.com/teamvsteam.php?year=2010-2011&team1=POR&team2=DAL

 

Interesting. Dallas has an advantage for the full season (makes sense as they have the better record), but Portland has a small advantage in head-to-head. It would be interesting to see the same numbers for the last 25% of the season, or post allstar game/post trade deadline.

Also, Portland seems to have as big advantage when Camby is in the starting line-up (whether, or not, it's Batum or Wallace starting at the 3). Portland seems to suffer when Roy is in the mix, as either a starter or back-up. But, the sample size is small and the only time he started against Dallas was the game before his double knee surgery.

BNM

 

I'm picking Portland in 5 games. I figure I can gloat if I'm correct, and nobody will remember if I'm wrong.

Seriously, though, beyond Marion they just don't have any size/athleticism at the 2/3. Except garbage time, we should have at least one size advantage on the court every second of the game, and in many instances 2 or 3 position size advantages. Portland's ability to quickly switch assignments negates a lot of the speed advantage we give up, especially given that Dallas isn't much of a running team.

I wonder why Dirk has only been averaging 34 mpg this year. He averages 42 mpg in the playoffs over his career.

 

I think Dallas in 6. Why? Because of the last two Blazers playoff series. Both were against teams that we thought we could beat. We didn't.

Here's why I could be wrong (and hope I am): last year the Suns had one of, if not the, best record post all-star break, plus Roy had just gone down. And this year, we have Gerald Wallace.

Here's why I think I'll be right: I have no confidence (sorry but its true) in Aldridge as a postseason savior. But Nowitzki is a perennial PER monster in the playoffs.

We shall see. If we do get bumped, I predict the calls for Nate's head to be loud.

 

Did many people honestly think we could beat the Suns without Roy? I'm pretty sure I didn't. I was incredibly surprised when we won game 1.

 

Am I the only one who sees 8 analysts picks?

By my count, it's 3/8 who think the Blazers will win

 

Well, Dalas has lost in the first round 3 of the last 4 years - including once as the #1 seed and once as the #2 seed. We lost to teams we could have beat. They lost to teams they should have beat.

BNM

 

We weren't supposed to beat Houston. That team matched up with us remarkably well, and Yao tore us a new butthole. I think we could have beaten Phoenix, but not without a healthy Roy.

 

Seems like a ton of guys are blowing smoke up the Blazers these days. Not sure how I feel about that after years of being over looked by the media.

On NBA.com, Greg Anthony picked the Blazers in 6. On Bill Simmons' BS report, there is a consensus on the panel about POR over DAL being the one upset this year. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/simmons/