It seems to me there is more at stake here and the players have to move, but won't. The owners cannot continue to lose money on a year to year basis.
I hope so. I expect the season to be canceled though. I'd like to be pleasantly surprised with a January start -- Just when G.O. is ready to go!
I think there's a pretty solid chance that the entire season will be lost, but I'd put the greater likelihood on a partial season as the league and players come to realize that losing an entire season would be disastrous. I give virtually no chance of the season starting on time. The two sides seem much further apart than in the NFL, and moving farther apart.
I agree. First, all but a couple of owners have other revenue streams (like many players have endorsements). Second, as a matter of good business principle, losing money year after year sucks and can minimize the value of the franchise. Third, the CBA that just ended was over the top for the players that the playing field has to be leveled for the sake of the league. I just think the players will fight long and hard before giving up anything to the owners.
Just based on the rhetoric, a full lost season seems likely, but perhaps cooler heads will prevail and some kind of deal gets worked out around January or so ... tough to say without knowing what's actually being said behind closed doors in the actual negotiations.
I think when you see mass exodus of allstar players leaving for other countries to play you can stick a fork in next year. If and when Kobe and Dwight sign abroad an upgrade to your college basketball package might be warranted. My bet, no season.
I don't know why I am optimistic, maybe I'm just desperate for there to be basketball! But the NFL settled before the season and just seeing the rumors every day of NBA players talking about Europe when it is not really a valid alternative means to me they are working with a weak hand.
We will see hardly any players of note play overseas. Not enough money and way too risky if they get injured. Kiss your NBA career goodbye. Its all rhetoric because the players have no leverage yet the threat to play elsewhere is about all they have. It really is bupkus. And I agree will likely see no season at all. The owners want to teach the players a lesson and will take a play out of the NHL playbook and cancel a whole season to get what they want. Gary Betman, NHL Commissioner, used to be an NBA guy, btw. Go owners!
I think the owners have about 75% of the leverage- and they're right in that it isn't reasonable for the players to make the type of money they are while over 70% of the owners lose money year to year. The owners have every right (and they deserve) to expect a profit and to have a CBA that allows them to do so.
While fully guaranteed contracts are part of the problem -- where injured/broken down players end up being a millstone -- the real issue with the NBA is that they have no viable revenue sharing system. most of the NFL's health can be directly attributed to two things: a salary cap, which ensures no big spenders gobbling up all the good players and enough revenue sharing to guarantee that smaller markets can actually afford to spend and compete. If the NBA ever figures that out then the player salary issue becomes a lot less important.
