Wait, we had no Oden or Roy last year, so played around LMA - were we lotto fodder? Did I miss something, or are you just being ridiculous?
If Oden rejects the Q.O., he is instantly a free agent. Oden is not under contract right now, is he? He needs to have a contract to play next season, whenever it is. He either plays next season under the Q.O., or he rejects it and becomes a RFA. Where am I wrong on this? I'm not saying I'm right, btw, but how does Oden get a contract without making a decision on the Q.O. prior to the season?
You make it sound as if the decision regarding the Q.O. has to made now. Oden is a free agent (restricted) right now. He just has an offer (the Q.O.) from the Blazers that he can accept or reject at any time up until March of next year. In the mean time, he's free to entertain other offers from the Blazers and other teams before he has to decide about the Q.O. If he gets an offer he likes, the Q.O becomes a moot point.
Try sustaining winning like that with no oden, no roy. We had some veterans on the team like Dre and Camby. But if we're retooling, they're going to have a youth movement and we will be more lotto fodder than contenders.
If Oden has an injury plagued season and looks like crap after the lockout he will still be a sought after free agent. Darko, Kwame, Eddy Curry, all received massively overpaid contracts after years of disappointing play. Oden was dominant for a brief stretch of games, far more productive than any of those players. Yes he only played in a quarter of his teams total games, but that potential for greatness is more enticing than all but a couple of available free agents in an offseason. By taking the qualifying offer Oden first receives ~$9million. Even if he is injured and plays like crap he will get more than an MLE contract, around 3 years for $21 million. Oden will get a minimum of $30 million total over the next 4 years no matter how crappy or injured he is! Now if Oden signs a one year qualifying offer and is dominant at the end of the season he could receive a near max 3 year contract as an unrestricted free agent in the $52 million neighborhood brining his four year total to $61 million. Oden is reportedly in line for offers as a RFA in the 4 years $40 million range. So Oden’s 4 year earnings would be: $30 million minimum if he plays like crap and is hurt. $40 million if he agrees to 4 year deal with Blazers. $61 million if he successfully recovers from injuries next season. Oden is not risking all his money by taking a one year offer. No matter how next season plays out he will be a rich man and highly sought after by an NBA team. He is risking $10 million to earn $21 million, a good deal for him if he believes there is around a 50% chance he is a major disappointment again next season.
I kind of hope Oden does leave ... not because I hate him or am desperate to see him go, but holy shit this place is going to be soooooo much fun if he does.
