While I still have serious concerns about the Bulls' ability to beat the Heat in a 7 game series, there's some good news. The Bulls are a better team this season than last. Last year we won at a .756, this year it's .787. The Heat are a better team, too. Last year they won at a .707 clip, this year it's .744. The Bulls' advanced stats tell the story, too. Last year, their ORTg was 11th in the league, their DRtg was 1st. This year, their ORtg is 3rd, and their DRtg is 2nd. In fact, their ORtg is up to 109 (from 108) and their DRtg is down to 99.4 (from 100.3). The basic stats tell the story as well. Last year, their 98.6 PPG was 20th in the league and the 91.3 they gave up was good for 2nd. This year their 97.6 is good for 8th and their 89.3 is still good for 2nd. The improved offense has made a huge difference IMO. Gone is our starting SG from last season who was downright awful. In his place, Brewer's PER is almost 4 points better, and the defense isn't suffering. We have had a full-time, non-injured, slimmed down Carlos Boozer. He takes a lot of heat for lack of defense, but yet he's started and finished most of the season and here we are with improved offense and defense. All this with Deng sucking hard the past several weeks, playing through his injury. And Rose missing an awful lot of games. And our real starting SG looking like he slammed his shoulder into his groin and injured them both - missing 5/6th of the season and maybe not being ready for playoffs at all. He is a wildcard if he shows up, though. Meanwhile, Deng's PER is down from 15.5 to 14.4. Noah's is up from 18.8 to 19.4. Boozer's is up from 18.8 to 19.7. Rose's is up from 23.5 to 24.8. Taj's is up from 14.3 to 17.7. &c. And it really shows up in the point differential. This season it's 8.6, last season it was 7.3. Of all the stats, this one means the most to me. After all, games are individually won by point differential. As for the Heat... We beat 'em, but Bosh had a lousy game, as did Boozer. But Noah outscored Bosh and Anthony combined. Our vaunted defense held LeBron to only 35 points on 14-25 shooting. Wade shot 16-26 for 36 points. Lucas III had an unconscious shooting night, which he is capable of but not his norm. Not going to happen in a 7 game series. Rose better bring it.
Yeah, how did they beat the Heat? Shame about Rip. It really is. It just isn't happening for him, and it's too bad. I still have a sliver of hope, but... Anyway, yes, the team IS better, and you hit all the reasons why. Go Bulls!
How they beat the Heat is Bosh went 3-15, and we got 36 points from Korver and Lucas on 16 shots. I don't think we can count on Lucas to shoot 9-12 for 7 games in a playoffs against the Heat, tho
I think it's all about Bosh. The Heat aren't going to be able to beat the Bulls if he has a bad series. The Bulls are too deep along their front line. As to the general theme of this thread: I have to agree. I've been listen to a fair amount of 670 The Score at work, via the internet. And the whole vibe you get is that the Bulls are not worth talking about because they haven't made any noticeable upgrades and they lost to the Heat last season. I don't see it. Every measure we have tells us that's not the case -- and the Bulls' defense (Omer and Taj) is really just starting to round into form.
Here's the thing. We did get production from the PG spot with Rose out, and we won. In the playoffs, the Heat (Indy and Atlanta, too) showed they could force Rose to shoot < 40% to get his points, which is something of a penalty since those extra shots he needed to get his points could have gone to someone else typically. The reason the Bulls needed to make a move is Deng's injury. I really hate to rag on the guy because he is such a good person and plays so hard, but if he can't be good offensively, it means he has a Bogans effect on the team. Why would LeBron guard him (except to rest) if he's going to go 5-17 shooting (even with 3-3 from 3pt)? It frees him to guard Rose more, and that was a disaster for us last year. I'm looking at the playoff box scores from last year. Boozer 14/9 in game 1 (our only win), 7/8 game 2, 26/17 game 3, 20/11 game 4, 5/6 game 5. Deng 21/7, 13/5, 14/8, 20/8, 18/7/4. Rose (shooting) 10-22, 7-23, 8-19, 8-27, 9-29. I'd like to say Rose is going to be super, but they will key on him again. With Deng and Boozer our other key offensive guys having good games, it wasn't enough to beat the Heat. The strategy was and is to really pressure Rose and make the other guys beat you; Boozer is good, but he's no DWade as 2nd option (nor is Deng). Our depth is great for the regular season, but playoffs is a time when you shorten your rotation and put your best guys out there against their best. The Heat proved last year that given enough looks at what the Bulls throw at you, they could devise a scheme to beat them. They have 3 of the best 4 players on the court, so they really should win. This had to be the thinking of management before the trade deadline, which is why the trade rumors were out there.
I agree with the general tone of the thread. To add a few more points, we look a little more "settled in" than last year, probably just because of the extra year of experience. I think the most important parts to the latter point are a). We've gotten better at diffusing the offense away from Rose, and are better able to compensate when he has an off night or is receiving extra defensive attention b). We've fixed the Noah/Boozer bug, and they can now play together and simultaneously have good games. Making Boozer an elbow 4 isn't the best thing for his stats, but he's playable there and it allows Noah to do what he does best. If we can get healthy for the playoffs I like our chances for a title this year, but of course with each passing game that becomes more iffy. At full health I'd actually say we're the favorites to win the title. A healthy Rip I think provides just enough extra breathing room for Derrick to allow our well rounded roster to compensate for the Heat's superior star power. I don't think there's a defensive scheme on this earth that can stop Lebron from getting his, but we seem to be very adept at shutting down the Heat's peripheral elements.
