I don't get it. Maybe Transplant can explain it to me. He wrote all about these advanced stats a while back. #1 in the league in ORtg is... Tyson Chandler. #5 in the league is Joakim Noah. I mean, these guys aren't known for their offense. Defensive Rating Carlos Boozer is #6 in the league A lot of the list makes sense, like Howard at #1, and guys like Garnett, Smith, Iggy, Noah, Chandler, Camby, Kidd, LeBron in the top 20. Offensive Win Shares Boozer doesn't even show up. He's considered a one-way player, offense! He plays for the team with the best record, and as a team we have the #3 ORtg in the league. Defensive Win Shares Boozer at #6, Noah at #8, Chandler at #9, Deng at #18. Wouldn't you expect the best wing defender in the league to be near #1?
I think ORtg and DRtg were designed to measure team performance, and then to make them more interesting they began to apply the metric to individual players. But it's waaaay too noisy to have any meaning for an individual player's effectiveness on defense or offense. Using individual ORtg and DRtg is a good example of how advanced stats can be trickery and not substantive.
My impression is those numbers are points per 100 possessions when those guys are on the floor. Granted, it measures the team, all 5 players on the court. But Boozer should be killing the defense since people say he's so bad.
It might not be all noise in the case of Boozer. We know, of all of the Bulls' big men, he has the least ability to provide help defense because of his length issues and lack of speed. We also know that he's a hell of a defensive rebounder and often shades away from full rotations so that he's in good position to grab boards -- I think for the most part this is a relatively smart tradeoff. So power forwards don't get cheap put backs and easy buckets off of dribble penetration against Boozer, because he doesn't provide nearly as much help defense; whereas they do against all of our other bigs, who have the ability and are expected to change shots if opposing players get dribble penetration. This seems right, doesn't it? Am I missing something? This of course doesn't mean that Boozer's is as good a defender as the rest of the bigs, because he's not. All it shows is that opposing power forwards score less against Boozer than the Bulls' other bigs.
I think maybe he's a little bit better a help defender, though inconsistently, than he's given credit for. On some plays he looks completely fooled and out of position. On others, I've seen guys try to drive to the hoop and he just shows he's there and the guy stops and shoots a lesser percentage shot. There is a lot to be said for defensive rebounds, too. As you point out, it's less offensive opportunities for the other team. Then there's simply the stat lines of opposing PFs. ATL Josh Smith 8-21(.380) DEN Faried 3-6 TOR Bargnani 4-18 TOR Bargnani 2-10 ORL Anderson 4-13 PHI Brand 1-2 POR Aldridge 9-18, 21 points MIA Bosh 3-15
Yup, ORtg and DRtg are estimates of points per 100 possessions, and when used on individual players, they can provide some pretty counter-intuitive results. While I've written some stuff on NBA stats, I'm no expert. In general I don't like the ORtg/DRtg stats for individuals, but they're most misused when applied to comparisons involving players on different teams. As you pointed out, even when comparing players on the same team they can make you go "huh?" Things get even funkier when you look at individual ORtg/DRtg in combination with on-floor/off-floor stats. For example, the Bulls' ORtg is 108.8 and their DRtg is 99.1. Noah has an individual ORtg of 118 and a DRtg of 96. Guy's a stud, right? The team is clearly at its best when he's on the floor, right? He's just gotta have an on/off # that is through the roof. Except according to basketballvalue.com, Noah has a negative on/off. 82games.com has Noah at a modest +1.9, but their numbers are over 3 weeks old. Conversely, Deng has an ORtg of 105 and a DRtg of 100, both worse than the team ratings, yet his on/off is stellar. You'll need someone a lot better than me to make sense of all this, 'cause I'm at a loss.
Yeah, I could buy an argument that Boozer is a better defender than he's given credit for, as compared to the rest of the power forwards in the league -- especially when you consider Boozer's rebounding. I'm a huge believer in guarding the rim, though. I think the ability of Asik, Gibson and Noah to limit opposing guards from scoring around the hoop is the largest component of the Bulls' success outside of Derrick Rose. So while I think Boozer may be better defensively that credited, when compared to the rest of the league, I think the general sense I get from Bulls fans that Boozer is far and away an inferior defenders, as compared to the rest of the Bulls' bigs, is on the money. I think we Bulls fans are just spoiled by how well our bigs play defensively on the whole. Does this make sense?
For me, there isn't a single stat, or for that matter a group of stats, that provides a lot of help in identifying a good defensive player. You still have to rely on your eyes and listen to what coaches say (every coach worth his salt LOVES good defense). As for Boozer, he's gotten better. I think he really likes being on this team and is willing to try for his teammates and coaches. While he's clearly the weakest big in the Bulls' rotation, the other 3 are big-time plus defenders. I think Boozer's worked his way up to close to average. IMO, breaking it down, he's just below average at on-ball defense, below average at help D and upper third in terms of defensive rebounding. A Carlos Boozer who is average on defense is a very good all-around basketball player. I'm glad the Bulls have him. If he's overpaid, it's not by much and it's not my money.
^^^ It seems opposing PFs do struggle on offense against him. At least lately. Granted, some of the time those PFs may be playing against someone subbing for Boozer (e.g. Taj). But Boozer is playing 30+ MPG.
I would have traded Boozer at the deadline for Howard or LMA or even Gasol. But without one of those guys, we could be a lot worse off if we had traded him just to get rid of the contract.
What's the list of power forwards you would take over Boozer? Kevin Love LMA Chris Bosh Pau Gasol Blake Griffin KG (probably not) Serge Ibaka (probably not) That list is all max guys, with the exception of Ibaka who will still get paid handsomely. I don't think it's as bad a contract as people make it out to be. I also think that making the offer was a good decision and that the two issues are not the same.
My list is pretty short: Love, LMA, Bosh, Griffin, and maybe Amare. If it's to go all out and win it all this season, then those other guys (except Ibaka) are OK, depending on what we get in the deal. Like KG and Pierce for Deng and Boozer. We'd have a healthy SF and a great replacement for Boozer, but we'd have to rebuild with the cap space those guys represent because they're really old in NBA terms.
