Official New Jersey Nets #1 pick Status Thread..........

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by THE HCP, Mar 15, 2012.

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  1. crowTrobot

    crowTrobot die comcast

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    NJ possible finishes:

    (loss)
    4 way tie for 3rd
    3 way tie for 4th
    2 way tie for 5th
    alone in 6th

    (win)
    alone in 7th
    2 way tie for 7th
     
    crowTrobot, Apr 25, 2012
    #421
  2. Charcoal Filtered

    Charcoal Filtered Writing Team

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    OK, think I see where you are getting your numbers. Do not forget that the chances are redistributed, so whoever gets the 3 and 4 will have 107 combinations and 5 and 6 will have 106.

    Originally the 3 pick would have a 46.9% chance of winning the lottery. With it having a lower combination amount, it would have approximately 34.4 chance. This is another 12.5% chance that has to be spread out among the 4, 5, and 6, adjusted since a 4 way tie only gets the 3 slot 25% of the time.

    The four pick would then get adjusted slightly for its likelyhood to stay the same or drop.

    The tradeoff is that the 5 and 6 now have better chances of being within the top 3.
     
    Charcoal Filtered, Apr 25, 2012
    #422
  3. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    What a clusterfuck this is!!!
     

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    THE HCP, Apr 25, 2012
    #423
  4. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    When somebody finds EXACTLY what the numbers are...... please share! Tired of you part time math professors thrown out bad info!
     
    THE HCP, Apr 25, 2012
    #424
  5. crowTrobot

    crowTrobot die comcast

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    thanks. yeah i thought of that but didn't know how to calculate the adjustment, particularly since it's at least partially offset by the redistributed chances also increasing the odds of 3rd ending up 5th.
     
    crowTrobot, Apr 25, 2012
    #425
  6. crowTrobot

    crowTrobot die comcast

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    like they would mean anything to you :ghoti:


    point is still valid. no matter where they finish the 4th pick is going to be a longshot.
     
    crowTrobot, Apr 25, 2012
    #426
  7. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    So what is the final word? What is at stake with this Nets game?
     
    THE HCP, Apr 26, 2012
    #427
  8. 3RA1N1AC

    3RA1N1AC 00110110 00111001

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    nets lose - our pick will move up to #1

    nets win - our pick will move up to #2

    go raptors!
     
    3RA1N1AC, Apr 26, 2012
    #428
  9. crowTrobot

    crowTrobot die comcast

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    if they WIN they'll be 7th for sure (or tied for 7th), and we'd be looking at a comparatively safer 84%+ chance at a pick from 7-9.

    if they LOSE they could end up anywhere from a 4-way for 3rd (effectively a "4.5" seed) to alone in 6th, depending on if any or all of the kings, hornets, or cavs win. if they lose we could have as low as a 65% chance of keeping the pick, but the pick could move up as high as 5 (with a tiny chance at 4).

    no matter what happens tonight the vast majority of the time we're drawing for a pick from 5-8, so unless you really value the 5th or 6th pick over 7/8 there isn't necessarily anything massive at stake.
     
    crowTrobot, Apr 26, 2012
    #429
  10. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    There is nothing riding on this game. Either way The Nets will land in the top 3
     
    Mediocre Man, Apr 26, 2012
    #430
  11. mgb

    mgb Over-Nite Sensation

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    I like the tiny chance at 4 with us jumping to the 1 spot ending up with 1 and 4 pick. Yes, that sounds good.
     
    mgb, Apr 26, 2012
    #431
  12. 3RA1N1AC

    3RA1N1AC 00110110 00111001

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    my sources say that nj will not move up into the top 3, but brooklyn will
     
    3RA1N1AC, Apr 26, 2012
    #432
  13. huevonkiller

    huevonkiller Change (Deftones)

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    The nets should have made it top 5 protected.

    The gap between a #5 player, and a top 7 or 10 player is monstrous. I recently saw some fancy graphs explaining this. :]
     
    huevonkiller, Apr 26, 2012
    #433
  14. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    I am glad to see your sources rocking those specific predictions again
     
    Mediocre Man, Apr 26, 2012
    #434
  15. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    Wear a tinfoil hat lately FAMS?
     
    THE HCP, Apr 26, 2012
    #435
  16. crowTrobot

    crowTrobot die comcast

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    and that's actually not an impossible dream.

    just 1 in 500 or so :cheers:
     
    crowTrobot, Apr 26, 2012
    #436
  17. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    It will happen
     
    Mediocre Man, Apr 26, 2012
    #437
  18. BLAZINGGIANTS

    BLAZINGGIANTS Well-Known Member

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    You wearing a tinfoil hat?

    You don't want to admit that kinda shit.
     
    BLAZINGGIANTS, Apr 26, 2012
    #438
  19. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    Is tinfoil hat an urban dictionary thing? I don't know what it means
     
    Mediocre Man, Apr 26, 2012
    #439
  20. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    They're said by certain whackjobs to be useful in blocking the radio waves that "they" are using to control our thoughts.
     
    e_blazer, Apr 26, 2012
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