Just happened to look at RCP's poll of polls for 2004 and 2008. In both cases, it seems like momentum was finally decided between late August and mid-September: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ma_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html People forget how critical McCain's pick of Palin was to revitalizing his numbers in that election. And then she started speaking without a script.....if she had not been a total dingbat McCain would probably be president right now. Romney has seen something of a spike with Ryan, but it's not nearly as remarkable. I suppose it hasn't helped that its timing has revolved around a number of gaffes (both Romney's "world tour" and nonsense like the Akin story.) Plus, it's just not as remarkable that the Republicans chose yet another white male. It's not exactly catching undecided voters' attentions like the Palin pick did. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...bama_vs_romney_compared_to_bush_vs_kerry.html Anybody remember what turned things around for Dubya in this election? It's a pretty striking rise. I know the Swift Boating came out pretty strong around then. Anyway, seems like recent history shows that these next few weeks define the election results.
Looking over these charts, it makes you realize how sensible most democracies are in having executive elections that span weeks instead of years. It's like being the score keeper at an NBA All Star Game--who gives a fuck until that final 5 minutes.
After a game between a good team and a bad team, if you look at the play-by-play, it will appear that there were turning points. But it's deceiving. The outcome was inevitable.
I had been predicting Obama would win easily, but it will be close now. As soon as Romney wins the republican nomination he gets to access their war chest. He has far more money than Obama.
How about a chart of bouncebacks right after halftime by Charlotte in games against Miami? It will be as informative as that.
I've been predicting an Obama victory all along and I see nothing yet that changes my mind. One thing that has surprised me is that I thought the left would try and sink Romney with Christian conservatives by zeroing in on his Mormonism. Maybe try and get some voters to opt out this election, but so far as I can tell this hasn't happened.
I don't think the left has ever been good at playing religious politics. Because it's not a natural fit, I think the decision is that it's a high risk/high reward avenue to try to play up that card. Better to leave it alone (and also let Reverend Wright remain the dead issue it's become.) If either side goes religious in a big way, it'll be a sign of extreme desperation.
Obama's been ahead, but he hasn't at all sealed the deal enough to win. His campaign spent a huge amount of money diverting peoples' attention from his record to tear down Romney, but nobody was really tuned in. The media has happily played along by not focusing on actual issues, but on whatever the Obama campaign wants in the news. They've even conspired to keep Romney's wife's speech from being televised on network TV. Yet, Romney will have the stage to himself with the cameras trained on him. If he only says, "it's the economy, stupid" and hammers that home, he'll have Obama on his heels. I can't imagine Obama/Romney debate being Obama doing personal attacks and not defending his record.
That's definitely true, but how much can you really spend to change people's minds in two months in about 5 states? If Obama pushes 50 tv commercials in front of the average viewer, and Romney pushes 100, isn't it all going to get washed out in being just a crap-ton of angry political ads that don't matter? At some point you get overloaded and turn it off. If I lived in Florida (and hadn't already dumped my satellite), I'd plan on DVR'ing all TV and skipping all commercials. Romney and Obama can send all the junk mail they want, but I wouldn't read it. There's a reason Coca Cola doesn't blow it's entire marketing budget in a two month span (even though they'd get better deals on media buys). After a certain amount of message saturation in a narrow window you really aren't moving the needle much.
Many of my clients and neighbors are conservative Christian Republicans who pretty much abhor Obama. That said, several have expressed serious resentment that their party is forcing them to vote for Obama as the lesser evil since they regard the Mormon religion as blasphemous and a direct attack on their beliefs. God before country.
Bad news for the president. http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...fc3-11e1-adc6-87dfa8eff430_story.html?hpid=z1 TAMPA — The Republican National Convention opens this week with President Obama and presumptive nominee Mitt Romney running evenly, with voters more focused on Obama’s handling of the nation’s flagging economy than on some issues dominating the political debate in recent weeks. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Romney at 47 percent among registered voters and Obama at 46 percent — barely changed from the deadlocked contest in early July. ... The Post-ABC survey highlights the dominance of the economy as an issue in the 2012 election. Seventy-two percent of voters say the president’s handling of the economy will be a “major factor” in their vote this November. Fewer voters place great significance on other issues that have roiled the campaign, including newly minted GOP vice presidential candidate’s plan to restructure Medicare, differences between the parties on women’s issues and Romney’s handling of his tax returns. ... Just 20 percent see Romney’s handling of his tax returns as very important to their vote. The issue has attracted considerable attention, largely due to efforts by the Obama campaign and other Democrats to force the Republican candidate to release more than the two years of returns he has promised. On the substance of the issue, public opinion nearly matches the horse race: 47 percent of voters say releasing two years of tax information is sufficient, and 47 percent want more.
Bad news for Romney. He polls at historically low levels. Obama makes Reagan's supposed 1984 popularity look like a piker. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS...ination-poll-highlights-low/story?id=17097297 http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...vorably-by-most-at-convention-start-poll-says http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...mneys-popularity-dips-ahead-of-opening-night/
Romney is so wishy-washy and just plain offensive to most hard-working Real Americans, he'd lose to Walter Mondale. Against Obama he has no chance in hell.
[video=youtube;d5i3F0YnkP0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=d5i3F0YnkP0[/video]
What a dirty mouth he has. I was on the fence but now I'll vote against Romney. He isn't presidential.
