BP-Oh yes I think he'll win it! He's got a good arm, good speed, great head on his shoulders, doesn't let his emotions get the best of him and next year he'll have Tyner, DAT, Stanford, Colt, Carrington, Addison, Brown, Marshall and Dontre Wilson + Huff as weapons! I think that gives him one hell of an edge! Don't you?
I would be surprised as we're a run first team. He'll lose out to some team that throws 60 times per game and the QB racks up 450 yards per game. The Heisman folks don't appreciate an all around game.
winning definitely seems to matter in Heisman voting and the QB always gets a lion's share of the credit for their team's results. I think you're right in siting that Oregon's QB will be playing with a heavily featured run game, but Mariota could be seen/portraited as a difference-making player putting them over the edge if they continue to dominate. Dude plays a fluid athletic game. He'll probably need a championship prior to graduating to truly be in the mix and (of course) continue to improve, but his candidacy is likely to get at least some media talk STOMP
Mariota might not put up the 300-400 yard games, but I could easily see him putting up 4 passing TDs per game and 1 or 2 rushing TDs to go with 50 yards rushing. Plus there's always the winning.