The optimism (this season) about the Blazers is ludicrous

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Carlito, Oct 9, 2012.

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  1. BoBoBREWSKI

    BoBoBREWSKI BURP!

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    I think we'll be the 8th seed. HOMER!

    1 - Thunder
    2 - Lakers
    3 - Spurs
    4 - Clippers
    5 - Grizz
    6 - Nuggets
    7 - Timberwolves
    8 - Trail Blazers

    Dallas - OUT!
     
    BoBoBREWSKI, Oct 10, 2012
    #61
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    He played in 66 of 82 games. If having a superstar gets you a .500 record, they'd have won at least 33 that season, no?
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 10, 2012
    #62
  3. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    Who said a superstar gets you a 0.500 record? Strawman? Yes. But you sure knocked it down.
     
    blazerboy30, Oct 10, 2012
    #63
  4. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    It's not a strawman. It speaks to how much of an effect you might expect from a weak-ish team with a top 15 player.
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 10, 2012
    #64
  5. Blaze01

    Blaze01 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Lillard averaging 15\6 is on par\better than what the majority of elite PG in the NBA produced in thier 1st year...I think that is an overly ambitious assumption....

    Hickson is a year removed from being picked off the scrap heap by the Blazers, after washing out with both CLE & SAC...While he played well last year, particularly when LA was down and of course when the games really didn't matter...it remains to be seen how he will perform playing WITH LA and being counted on to be a consistent performer.....

    As for Batum & Matthews being above average...well, average must really suck then....they are both wildly inconsistent players, whom people are "convinced" will turn the corner this year and become these much better versions of themselves than they have shown to date....

    Here is how Batum started the season last year (1st 15 games):10-15-6-15-12-2-12-11-9-14-7-29-19-0-9. Now being paid like an All Star caliber player, he needs to start playing like one, every night....I remain skeptical than he can.

    And while I like Matthews attitude and grit, I do not like him as a starting caliber SG at all...He started off like gangbusters last year and then went in the tank mid december-mid february, when the games actually mattered...another wildly inconsistent player.....

    I have heard this record enough from the Blazers before.....They have 1 fringe All-Star caliber player, a few rotation caliber players and a whole bunch of scrubs....Not usually a playoff caliber team without some serious help from other teams' misfortunes....
     
    Blaze01, Oct 10, 2012
    #65
  6. Rhal

    Rhal Well-Known Member

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    The first two years in the league all Durant did was chuck, he didn't play D and his team +/- was better when he was off the court. In his third year was really when he went from this scorer who could do nothing else (his defense was beyond a joke) to elevating every other part of his game.
     
    Rhal, Oct 10, 2012
    #66
  7. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    Like I said, who claimed that a superstar gets you a 0.500 record? I asked the question of how likely a superstar gets the worst, or even bottom 5 record in the league. (ASSUMING THEY ACTUALLY PLAY).
     
    blazerboy30, Oct 10, 2012
    #67
  8. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Hickson, aside from a miserable half a season in Sacto put up PERs of 12.5 14.7, 17.6, and then 17.2 with Portland (9.2 with Sacto, 35 games). It sure seems like he's a ~17+ PER player at this point in his career.

    The Bulls won 50 out of 66 games last season, starting Ronnie Brewer at SG for 43 of those games (and Rip didn't play starter's minutes when he started). I think Matthews is better, so did Utah who let Brewer go to let Matthews start.

    Regardless of his consistency, Batum's averages were quite good. His PER of 17.3 is far better than average, though I agree not all-star caliber. What you need for his paycheck is 36 minutes a night, IMO.

    I am not suggesting the team is a championship contender, but they do have to play the games to find out for sure. I figure them to be a contender for 6-8th seed. Of more concern, to me, is the change in management - new coach and GM. Nate's coaching was consistently boring, but effective at winning ballgames without a lineup of superstars. This is TBD as far as current management and coach goes.
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 10, 2012
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  9. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    For the games he DID play and the ones he didn't play, LA was near the worst record.
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 10, 2012
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  10. Blaze01

    Blaze01 JBB JustBBall Member

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    But is he a 17 per player playing alongside LA? I would be surprised if he is....

    Batum is certainly a key rotational player on any team that he would be on, but the problem with him is consistency...and on POR for them to have any meaningful success he is going to have to be counted on to be that consistent #2 option...and he has been unable to do so up to this point, and his recent play on the national team didn't lead me to believe that he has suddenly changed into the type of player that his contract now demands that he become...

    Matthews is better than Brewer, for sure I agree with that, but the Bulls winning 50 out of 66 games had little to do with Brewer and a lot more to do with other players on that team, the type of players (and coaching) that this POR team does not have....
     
    Blaze01, Oct 10, 2012
    #70
  11. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    Denny, your example just wasn't a good one. I'm not saying they're aren't other examples, but this isn't one.
     
    blazerboy30, Oct 10, 2012
    #71
  12. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    You son are OUT YO MIND!
     
    THE HCP, Oct 10, 2012
    #72
  13. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Denny Crane, Oct 10, 2012
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  14. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    mook, Oct 10, 2012
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  15. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    Brand missed 13 games that season. However, when he did play, he put up a PER of 23. Those Clips finished 5th worst I think.

    However, if LMA misses 13 games that would change my estimate for wins and standings quite a bit.
     
    blazerboy30, Oct 10, 2012
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  16. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Yeah. I'd say PER of 23 is top 15 kind of player.

    Aldridge missed 1 out of every 6 games last season, or proportionally a shade more than Brand missing 1.3 out of every 8 games that season.
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 10, 2012
    #76
  17. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    I'm still curious though, in general, how likely it is that a superstar / top15 player finishes that badly in the league when they play almost all of the games. I'm wondering if we're underestimating the impact of a great player.

    It's possible I'm way off base here, it was just a thought.
     
    blazerboy30, Oct 10, 2012
    #77
  18. noknobs

    noknobs Well-Known Member

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    I have to agree with the OP... I'm laughing that people are actually mentioning .500 or eighth seed... There is approximately 0.0% chance of either of those happening this year. (it's actually 0.03% & 0.008% respectively but I rounded down)
     
    noknobs, Oct 10, 2012
    #78
  19. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    You could look at the distribution of players.

    Top 15 implies there are 15 other teams with a player not as good.

    It doesn't say anything about those other teams having a guy near that good and 4 others also near that good.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/1985.html

    Dominique Wilkins at age 25, played 81 games.
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 10, 2012
    #79
  20. Rhal

    Rhal Well-Known Member

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    Besides you assuming Lillard isn't going to be that good you seem to be assuming everyone is going to regress this year (calling LA a fringe All Star with what he did the last two years is saying he will regress). This is something I can't get behind, yes I'm optimistic batum/mathews will become consistent offensive players, that Lillard is more nba ready then most nba guards coming into the league and that hickson/La will both improve.
    Most of my optimism comes from a coach who will play a more open style and not bench everyone not named Roy when they make a mistake.

    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2
     
    Rhal, Oct 10, 2012
    #80
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