I got to thinking about this post some more, and about expectations for Lillard this year. yuyuza compared upper echelon recent PG's, but only Rose on that list was the actual ROY winner. So here's what you get if you just look at ROY's over the past 20 years who played PG. I know Iverson isn't a PG, but he mostly played that position his rookie year. Only two of these guys (Iverson and Stoudamire) were 22 or older (as Lillard is now). Average age was 20.6. Looking over those 6 guys, whose game does he most remind you of? I hate to say it (because he's my all-time most-hated Blazer) but honestly: • Great three point shooter • Creates for himself and others by spreading the floor with his shot and using his speed to get at the rim • Fantastic in the open court • Iffy on defense Doesn't that sound a hell of a lot like Lillard? Obviously, there are about 4 inches of difference between The Mouse and Lillard. Lillard is a good finisher at the rim, while that was always Damon's SHORTcoming. But in trying to think of what Lillard could put together in his rookie year, I like this comparison the most.
If LaMarcus is The Promise of Rasheed Fulfilled, maybe Lillard can be The Promise of Damon Fulfilled.
I'm going to go with a cross between John Stockton, Isiah Thomas and Ray Allen. There might be growing pains in the first two games, but it's to the HoF from there, baby.
From the limited amount I've seen Lillard play so far, I think there are some important differences between The Mouse and Lillard: - Lillard appears to have much better court vision - Lillard appears to be much better at the pick-and-roll. I've been incredibly impressed with his execution, I just hope his teammates can learn to expect it and convert. - Lillard is a MUCH better finisher at or near the rim - Lillard looks to have the ability to develop a midrange game with a step-back pullup. I don't think Stoudamire could ever do that. - Lillard is much more explosive. I think the four points you mention are similarities, but I think there are large, and important differences beyond those that you listed.
And Leonard can be the Promise of Przybilla Fulfilled. And Matthews can be the Promise of Ruben Patterson fulfilled. And Batum can be the Promise of Batum fulfilled. And Smith can be the Promise of Omar Cook Fulfilled. And Elliot Williams can be the Promise of Outlaw utterly crippled before we wasted so many goddamned years on him. Fulfilled. Hmm. It goes really downhill after that.
Valid points. Although I'd argue the court vision is about the same. I hated Damon, but back in his early years he was a good open court passer. Dude had several years averaging 8-9 assists. No matter how much of a ball hog you are, it's tough to do that without a lot of court vision. We just never saw it because we focused so much on half court offense run through big men. Lillard does run the pick and roll better, though. So do you expect his rookie numbers to be significantly better than Damon's?
I hated the guy, but it's easy to forget what a fantastic start Damon had to his career. He's the poster child for "great numbers/bad team." And the dude banked $100million over his career by cashing in on those great Toronto years. Everything that happened with Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady and Chris Bosh is cumulative karma for how badly those Damon-in-Toronto years fucked us up.
Damon had a very impressive rookie year, stat-wise 20pts / 9asts / 4rbs with 4TOs. So, no I don't expect Lillard's rookie numbers to match those. But, like you said, Damon's numbers may be inflated due to being the focal point on a bad Toronto team. Just look at how his numbers fell off when he was playing with Rasheed, Pippen, etc. I think if Lillard didn't have LMA and Batum around, his numbers would approach Damon's rookie numbers. But I also expect / hope that Lillard's stats will improve during his career instead of steadily declining.
He's not going to be Derrick Rose. He's not going to be Kyrie Irving (healthy). I think his ceiling is probably Healthy Steph Curry. Which is better than Actual Steph Curry.
I really wish people would cool the comparisons to former hall-of-famers. For all we know, he's going to be the next Mo Williams.
I really wish people would cool the whole "I don't like this topic, so everybody shouldn't post about this topic" idea. For all we know, some people actually enjoy speculating about rookies. Especially on slow news days.
Aside from Iverson, the people I posted are the only players in the HoF in this thread (unless you think Sheed's getting there). I thought it was obvious that I was joking.
