http://viralread.com/2012/11/04/obamas-bad-news-in-the-final-nov-4-columbus-dispatch-poll/ http://viralread.com/2012/11/03/ohio-math-numbers-equal-trouble-for-democrats/
Not me. If it was 1980 again, knowing what I know now, I would absolutely RULE my high school, instead of how it really happened.
Silver just updated his poll. Obama now up to 92.2% chance of winning the electoral vote. Romney with a 7.8% chance, down from 16.3% last week. Romney's chances have been steadily nosediving since Oct. 14th.
Silver has Obama to win 315 electoral votes. How off is big enough error for you to realize he may not be that accurate? 35 votes? 3 states out of 50? He also says Obama will win 51% of the popular vote to 48% for Romney. How much of an error is inaccurate? If Romney wins the popular vote, heck, Silver may only be off by 3% out of 100%. Or was he accurate predicting the house of representatives because he predicted 53 seat net gain for republicans with a 95% certainty +/- 30. I predict Obama will win 270 electoral votes, +/- 535. With 100% certainty! Boy am I accurate. I'm even accurate if Romney wins all 50 states and the other territories.
As everyone except Republican ideologues knew, Nate Silver was right. http://www.google.com/hostednews/af...ocId=CNG.bc12cd2859a9b80182d14e69692ca4c5.7b1
I'm posting on this thread to eat crow. I thought he was using bad data. He and Marist were spot-on. I couldn't have been more wrong.
Thank you! From what I heard, the turn out rates were quite surprising to most pollsters. Dramatically different from 2008 to 2010, then returning to 2008 like numbers in this election of 2012.
Let's see. Silver reads the polls then waves his hands and does his magic and comes up with predictions. No matter how Florida goes, his electoral vote prediction is less accurate than many pundits who hit the number on the head (not me, though!). Where it gets real interesting is where he projects vote share in the states. Colorado 50.8-48.3, Obama +2.5 --- actual 50.7-47.0, Obama +3.7. Seems like he was off by 50%. Florida 49.8-49.8, Tie --- actual 49.8-49.3, Obama by .5 Iowa 51.1-47.9 Obama +3.2 --- actual 52.1-46.5, Obama +5.6. Off by 75%. Nebraska CD-2 51.8-47.5 ROMNEY +4.3 --- actual 57.0-43.0 ROMNEY +14. Off by 300%. New Hampshire 51.4-47.9 Obama +3.5 --- actual 52.0-46.7 Obama +5.3. Off by 50%. North Carolina 50.6-48.9 Romney +1.7 --- actual 50.6-48.4 Romney +1.2. Off by 33%. Virginia 50.7-48.7 Obama +2.0 --- actual 50.8-47.8 Obama +3. Off by 50%.
nate has written that his formula does factor in a small chance that the polls were misforecasting turnout demographics, which is why he underestimated obama numbers (slightly really) along with almost everyone else. he just weighted that possibility much, much less than conservative-leaning pollsters like rasmussen who was pretty much worthless. rasmussen had the popular vote romney +1 on monday and tied on election morning. you could say he was off infinite percent : )
I actually fell for the idea that 2008 turnout was an outlier. Fuck, that's a painful hook I'm pulling out of my mouth.
