Portland has had BY FAR the easiest schedule of any Western Conference team. Portland is 2 games above .500, but is winning more than was expected. So, how do you feel the team will do from this point forward
I have a couple of observations first. When they win it's generally close, when they lose they seem to get blown the hell out ... a lot! When teams play that way the law of averages generally catch up to them and their point differential usually becomes a reasonable predictor of wins and losses. That said, I think they'll pass the 28 wins I predicted in the pre-season, maybe they only win 34 or 35, but that's more then I would have reasonably expected at the start of the year. I just hope they don't get stuck in that no-mans land where they barely miss the playoffs with the 13th or 14th pick and have to surrender their selection to Charlotte; this team still needs some more firepower from the draft.
I think I had them at 42 wins at the start of the year. Still seems reasonable. Sure, the schedule has been easier, but at the same time early in the year Aldridge and Batum were not playing nearly as well as they are now, and even the bench is starting to show some signs of life. If you think this is a 35 win team, consider this: The team just went 8-2. Over that span Batum has been an absolute stud, playing like Kirilenko in his prime. Great defense, high teens in scoring, 7 assists/night. That's giving Portland a legit Big Three. How many teams with a Big Three kind of lineup win 35 games? It just doesn't happen often. Especially when those three seem to fit as well as Batum/Lillard/LMA do. I see Batum only getting better. As teams start focusing on him more, it's only going to make more opportunities for Lillard and LMA. On top of that, Aldridge's FG% in December shot up to 51%, showing that he's working himself back into All Star shape (and perhaps being on the receiving end of Batum's more dynamic passing game). Our top 3 players are 27, 24 and 22 years old. That's a young core with tons of upside. We should expect these guys to continue to progress over the year. And we should start to expect a little more out of this team.
I totally agree with your post. And to add, we have Hickson and Matthews doing pretty well too. So to add to the formula; we have a double double forward and a scoring SG that averages around 12-13 a night.
My original prediction was 32 wins, I think that moves up to 40 wins 42 losses. And that's not bad considering I felt like I was being generous with my initial prediction.
Unfortunately, I think I'll stick with my prediction of 36 wins and maybe earn a pleasant surprise for it. That Knicks win in NY was a big deal, though, and shows that good things can happen to this team on the road.
With Batum, Aldridge and the bench continuing to improve, what makes you think our .500 team is suddenly going to go .372 from here on out? They just lost a tough blowout, but they're still 8-3 in their last 11 games. Sure, the schedule gets harder. But that much harder? To have that steep of a decline I think you'd have to predict a season-ending injury to Aldridge or Lillard or Batum.
OKC x3, San Antonio x1, LA Clippers x3, Memphis x4... yeah I think it gets harder from here. How many of those 11 games do you think we can win? I see us going 2-9 in those games.
Ya Jan, especially is nuts. Our SOS has to be among the lowest in the whole league so far. Plus, an injury to any of those three (who have stayed healthy until now -- knock on wood), and we're toast. Considering the heavy minutes they're playing, they're bound to break down.
I think the issue I have with this team is that they either tend to win close or lose big (generally). And this has been the softest portion of their schedule. Take that trend and ratchet up the competition and I think it's fair to suspect the win rate won't sustain itself over the course of the season -- especially because the competition is about to get much tougher. In any case, if they manage 35 wins I'd call that progress given how thin the bench is and how poorly they play on defense.
There's a lot of talk about our players/team getting better - but the other side of that coin is that other teams will also improve their play as the season progresses. Generally the older teams improve over the course of a season and the younger teams fall off. And let's not forget - our bench is still horribly weak. Sure, they've improved their scoring ability, but it's still quite anemic. And I don't see our defense getting noticeably better this season - maybe for a game here and there, but until we actually get a defensive assistant we're going to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
Holy shit! Man those are going to be some tough games! I still have hope that we play up to the competition. I only see OKC and Clips able to sweep us. We do great against SAS, NYK, and Memphis. BKN and MIA maybe a wash with us winning at home and losing on the road. We already lost to BKN on the road, so hopefully our home game is a win. GSW seems like we will win at home and lose on the road. How many of those 3 are on the road in GSW?
Even when GSW were bad they had our number. I wouldn't be surprised if they swept the series with us this season.
