I already have 100 shares. I already said that I own it more as a fan, not for investment. If you are so sure that its highly undervalued, then short the stock and post confirmation here.
So a company buying back their own shares with their cash makes them worth less after the purchases in your valuation model? According to your valuation, they are buying their own shares right now at $400 when they are "actually worth" $500. That should make their overall value increase, not decrease. Even if there is any logic in your assumption, then why are you taking 37% off of their value ($790 to $500) even though they are only using $60 billion for the buybacks?
No I am saying that back then, they accrued all that cash. They didn't the last quarter; which drops the share price. It's a downward trend, IMO. When I said they are buying back shares, that implies they believe the stock is undervalued. I have already given you my reasoning why I believe their shares are worth $500, using the x earnings model. Back when the stock was $700; it was still 6 times earnings. You keep ignoring a very obvious tool that most investment companies use.
Please show where I said aapl is "highly undervalued". Also, you're the one wanting to make a bet with Denny and I... show us how wrong we are with your purchase confirmation.
What are you talking about? They definitely accumulated more cash last quarter. Most investment companies absolutely do NOT value companies on a x earnings model. If that were true, companies would all have much more similar PE ratios instead of ranging from 0 to several thousand.
Did you just read the conference call? Show me where they showed increased cash flow? Whatever you say. I am getting more of a feeling you are just trying to argue just to argue. I've been hearing apple is going down since the 80's. And yet, here it is stronger than ever. So if you want to believe apple is seriously over-valued, then go for it. You don't want risk, then you can just have little reward. Personally, I don't mind taking risks and I have done pretty damn well in process.
And blazerboy, you say you only invest in ETFs; which still believe that apple is a buy... http://etfdailynews.com/2013/04/16/apple-inc-aapl-still-the-best-buy-in-tech/ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ICLjwAbSvU&feature=player_embedded[video=youtube;2ICLjwAbSvU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ICLjwAbSvU&feature=player_embedded[/video]
Okay fuck it. I will purchase one call of $450 contract dated at June. If I make a profit; then you will post how wrong you are and you should have never doubted the great magnifier. If I lose money; then I will post how I am stupid for ever thinking apple is undervalued. My contract call is $4,800 (100 shares) assuming the premium of length. Is that a significant amount enough for you? I will post a picture of the transaction for proof.
Yes. And I never said it was overvalued or undervalued. I said it is worth what people are willing to pay for it.
Again, I never said it was "seriously over-valued". You're just making up stuff and building strawmen.
Mags, buddy, what are you talking about? I have no idea what that video was trying to prove with respect to me saying I trade ETFs, futures and options, and not individual companies.
:MARIS61: The thing is, I never made a prediction either way. I honestly have no idea which way this stock will go. You could be right, you could be wrong. The thing I am sure of, and my original point, is that you can't guarantee a value for a company, especially based off of purely a "x earnings" method.
What's that have to do with aapl stock? To me it's just a discussion about stock valuation and trading.
The only thing you can guarantee is "book value" like Denny pointed out. The rest is purely speculative. And if anyone bases their investments on guarantees; then they need to buy insured bonds or bank CDs.
