I guess for me, it comes down to this: I don't think it'll make much difference how much more LMA improves or not. He's a good-to-great player, top 20 or so in the league, multiple All-Star, etc. Basically, he's a slightly-lite version of 2009 Bosh. (small drops in PER, PPG, RPG--similar eFG% and worse TS%) He will be a UFA and will get a lot of attention from other teams. Personally, I don't think there's any way on God's Green Earth that LMA re-signs outside of POR getting VERY close to a championship in the next two years. Now, if you think that LMA for the next two years, plus the same core, Lillard in Year Two or Year Three, and whatever pick (or trade) you get this year can combine with our 15th-most cap space to sign someone to get us to the Finals in the next two years, then keep LMA and get a banner. If you don't (and I don't), then you see what you can get for him in trade. And for all of those saying "Let's just trade Damian in 2 years also!!111!"--we have about 8 more years of control over where he plays. We have 9 years for whichever draft pick we get this year. We have 5+ if you get someone on a rookie contract. It seems as if the options I'm seeing come down to many folks wanting to trade our draft pick (or, worse, our draft pick AND Leonard) for guys like Gortat, Jordan, McGee, etc.--who imho will not win us a championship in the next two years and btw take up the bulk of whatever cap space we have. I just can't see Lillard/Wes/Batum/LMA/(Gortat or Asik or McGee) -- with Will Barton, Claver, Leonard and a less-than-MLE player coming off the bench -- winning a championship in the next two years. After that, you'll have LMA gone, Gortat gone, Wes UFA, one year of Batum and Lillard with a max extension able to use the 20th pick or so in the draft to try to rebuild a team that didn't quite make it. OR You understand that a) the "Rise With Us" trio and "Cap Space 2009" plans didn't work. Neither did the "go-for-it" 2011 campaign. We were lucky beyond belief to swing Lillard and pieces for Wallace and Felton, and that Crawford opted out. If you collect a bunch of young pieces while you can, you can get a Carmelo-level or Deron-level haul (or better!) for LMA now, rather than what CLE got for LBJ (or TOR got for Bosh). Taking the rumored CLE deal (#3 and Thompson, and maybe #19 and/or future picks) would give the team Lillard/#3 (Oladipo/McLemore?)/Batum/Thompson/Leonard with Wes, Claver, Papanikolou, #10, 3 2nds, and roughly 18M in cap space. Oh yeah, and every guy I mentioned other than Batum and Wes are under team control for at least 7 more years. And if the team sucks next year (which they might), they still own their Top 12 pick. If this was the 2009 team, and LMA could bolt in 2 years, I'd say keep him and try to win a title. Isn't going to happen, outside of magically signing a reverting-to-prime Dwight Howard or Rejuvenation-ated Bynum (in which case I'm happy to revisit my stance on both keeping the pick and/or trading LMA). But barring those two outcomes, I think the smart strategic play is to see that LMA doesn't wear a Blazers uniform again. And then in 7 years, if we still suck, we can talk about trading Lillard or Leonard.
Very well done. I think LMA is a goner for a Texas team in two years. Maybe they won't have cap space though and we can sign and trade him at that point? The haul would likely be less than you could get for him this summer though probably (which is essentially what you are saying already).
If the team is a title contender, and they will be closer to one than Dallas, then why wouldn't he re-sign in Portland? I'd be more worried about him becoming a Laker, considering he just bought a nice house on the beach.
I don't think it will be DAL actually even though that is where he is from. I see HOU and SA as bigger challenges to his services. Duncan probably retires by then and LMA is a worthy replacement if there is a such a thing.
...because Miller has shown how experienced he is getting out of the first round. Blake's actually made the second round. Perhaps Nate should have sat Miller all year and brought him off the bench?
I didn't say it'd be Dallas--I'm just saying that with 29 other teams able to bid on his services, I don't think he's staying in POR.
Well not really 29. You can immediately eliminate roughly half that many teams for one reason or another. I think POR has to win to keep him though. Agree on that.
Barring some sort of lucky lottery balls, San Antonio is going to be due for a big drop when Duncan, Ginobli, and Pop all retire within the next year or two. Either that, or Ginobli will be gone, and Parker is 30 right now. That team looks old right now, and it's a miracle they aren't down 2-0 to a very flawed GS team, who's only real edge is how slow San Antonio is now on the defensive end.
If Olshey makes the moves for another few solid players, Lillard develops into an elite PG, and LMA stays productive, then why wouldn't Portland make a play for him. It's almost like Blazer fans have some sort of self-destructive mechanism where the best player/players on the team need to be move for yet another rebuild. I've been reading this same stuff for 14 years on these boards, and the only thing that changes are the names of the players.
Well, we've only been close to winning it all once in the past 14 years - so it would make sense to continually rebuild once you see that what you have isn't going to work.
I think its a little early to just assume LA will not resign with us. I don't think hen has even started making a decision on the matter yet. Everything he has said makes it sound like he loves the fans and the city but also wants to win. If we suck he is will most likely request a trade but if we can turn into a good playoff team, then i dont think he is leaving for a less talented team. LA doesn't seem like the kind of guy who will go into UFA without letting the team know he is looking at other options. I think the GM would know before the allstar break 2015 if he is staying or most likely going. To just assume he is going to leave 25m on the table because he will get the max from us, and also the max to whatever team he is going, is a lot to leave on the table. This all just assumptions on my part just like the everyone else is just assuming he will leave/stay. Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2
Yet you can't rebuild overnight. The only rebuild that worked was derailed by injury, not by trading away the good players. Here Portland is again with what look to be two All-Star/All-NBA type players, and was competitive until LMA got hurt late in the season, and we're right back to 'rebuild'. It gets tiresome. Some of you people have literally zero patience.
My assumption, and I could be wrong, is that a lot of us like to play arm chair GM, which is why we go and hunt out internet message boards to discuss our favorite team, instead of just watching games and cheering them on. And once you start winning, and winning well with a vet team, there's just not as many creative ways to build on it. But there's always creativity and thought into a rebuild, so the natural inclination is to rebuild and tinker and change with every piece that shows success. I think that Lillard is going to bump his game up another level next season, which will in turn bump our team up another level. And I think team success and the ability to offer him the most money will keep LMA here. Would he leave just for money? No, we can offer him more. To win? Maybe. But how many teams with roughly 20 million in cap space are just one 31 year old PF away from being an instant title contender? Any? If not, then why would he consider somewhere else as a better chance to win. I'll worry about it when it comes, I suppose. I don't think it's very likely, and I think he helps this team more than staying young forever does, personally.
I think it's the opposite. Those who want to keep LMA hell-or-high-water seem to not have the patience to try a needed rebuild, instead choosing to go all-in on the next two years holding J-7 offsuit.
