Not sure he will get the minutes for that, but that would be great. I have a feeling we are on the same track as to what to expect from him when he's on the floor though
I think 10/6/1.5 in about 30 minutes of action a night is a pretty middle of the road prediction. As for how he'll impact the bottom line in terms of wins and losses, I guess that comes down to how healthy he stays, but he should be a somewhat noticeable upgrade over Hickson in terms of protecting the rim. He hasn't been much of a rebounder during his time in the league, but considering what the Blazers are paying him I don't think you can expect a dominant player in the three phases this team needs in a center (individual defense, team defense and rebounding).
Unlike some on here I am a Meyers Leonard fan and have high hopes for him but if Lopez continues to develop like he did last year and stay healthy I can actually see Lopez eating up a lot of minutes and making Leonard expendable. The other outside option is starting to use Leonard more at PF to get more minutes and/or as a PF if we did move LMA at some point. Not likely but something to ponder.
Ya, we had Duckworth as a center then. He use to get ragged on because he didn't get a lot of rebounds, but he did box his man out which allowed others to get rebounds and as you said we led the league in rebounds.
I forgot that 2011-12 was a shortened season. So he has basically played every game the last two seasons. That is a good sign.
My "realistic" expectations: 70 GP, 65 GS, 28 MPG 12.5 PTS, 9.0 REB, 1.7 BLK, ~19.5 PER. His points per game and blocks per game rate is similar to last season (minutes adjusted), but the LMA factor raises his rebounding up about 3 rebounds over his normal rate. Because of this, his PER goes up a bit (but I'm totally guessing how much). He misses 12 games due to being hurt, and as he comes back, Meyers tries his hand at starting a few games.
The mpg is the biggest question, I think. IMO, he was brought in to be the clear-cut starter at the center spot, and play 30+ mpg, but looking at his history, I see that prior to last season he had never averaged more than 20. Seems like this will be the first time that he's been the unquestioned #1 center, and that could have a big impact on what he can provide. He's been a consistent 15pts/36m producer over the past 4 years; any chance that continues? If so, and we can get 13/7 from him over 32 min (consistent with the 15/8 per 36 he's averaged), I will be pretty happy. If his rebounding numbers increase (as many have mentioned tends to occur with centers who play alongside Aldridge)--say 9/game--I'd be thrilled.
Looking at his historical Fouls Per 36, though, he'll be hampered a bit with foul trouble, which will keep him from playing 30+ minutes a game a lot of the time... However, given Lynyrd's similar foul rate per 36, we might be SOL there. I also see Meyers getting a lot of minutes as backup, and LMA playing "Don't Call Me A" Center a lot in the 4th. So for me 28 is probably the most Lopez can realistically play well.
Yes, but he drastically reduced his foul rate last year--from averaging 5 per 36 for the first four years, down to 2.8. That, to me, is a stat that isn't "fluky", but is something that will carry over, so I don't see that being an issue.
I'm just not sure that the rest of our team's "defense" (i.e., scream "ole!" while watching guard drive up the middle) will do anything to help his foul rate.
Good point; NO's DRtg was actually worse than ours last season, though they did allow fewer opponent points (97.9 vs 100.7) than Portland.
(odd thing I noticed; all six of the top six teams for Pace made the playoffs... as well as five of the bottom six teams for pace!)
Meaning either play fast, or play slow. Not both. This is interesting. I wonder if this is a legit trend or just an anomaly this year.
i think you nailed it right there with the mix of experience, room to grow and great price. trust me, you have to be intelligent to even get into Stanford (even if you're 7'0"). i'm optimistic about this signing.
anomaly, I checked 2011-2012, slowest team, only 3 of the 6 made the playoffs, slowest was NO. Fastest pace was Sacto, and only 3 of 6 again.
I'm optimistic about what it does for our team. IT gives LMA the type of player he needs beside him, and solidifies our starting 5 so that we can focus on what will really make the difference this year, the bench.
