Pelton: Blazers Project As 2014 Lottery Team

Preach it, brother, preach it.

 

Remember when life was easy because our GM was Bob Whitsitt? Never, ever again let some religious newspaper like the Oregonian destroy our team because a couple of its stars are black militants.

 

There is a problem with this post.

You say "we have a very solid....core. LaMarcus".

Stop right there.

All of us who are bemoaning being stuck in the mediocre middle, and those who would welcome a plan for getting out of that rut are basing our thoughts on the presumed fact that LaMarcus has gone to management and demanded either: the team make significant improvement to the roster very soon, or be traded.

The team has NOT made significant improvement to the roster. The bench is improved. We have a legit pivot to start instead of a converted PF, which may or may not turn out to be an improvement. This year we have a modest improvement. That's it.

I think this team has a decent shot at being better than last year (before the year-end tank). But, there is also a better than negligible chance the team has a tough season. They happen. We were mostly injury free last season. And this roster has little margin for error. A solid turn-out by most key players or the team has little chance to battle for that coveted 8th slot.

I say it is not a given like you do, but let us assume a "good" season where we get the 8th or 7th slot. What do we get? The chance to be first round cannon fodder for a real team.

You make the claim, that a season like that is a steppingstone for future improvement and success and then leap to presume that LaMarcus would be thrilled to hitch his wagon to the team is such instance?

Why? They only avenue left for the team to improve is the MLE and trades. No major overhaul of the roster would be forthcoming. Why do you think LaMarcus would suddenly forget about playing for teams like Chicago and Houston?

Your "plan" of building around the young talented roster we have (LaMarcus, Lillard, Batum) is shot to hell if LaMarcus walks because the team is just assuming that Robin Lopez is going to convince LaMarcus that Portland is the place to be. We would have little to no cap space, no high picks, and just Lillard and Batum to build around.

If that happens, the team will face a brutal, and difficult multi-year rebuild.

 

Perhaps you're the one who should stop right there. You're basing you're entire argument on the "presumed" fact that Aldridge has "demanded" a trade if the roster doesn't get better very soon. Please provide a quote attributed to Aldridge where he demands such action. If you can't, you're presumption become an assumption on your part with no facts to back it up.

In fact, according to Chris Haynes, who actually spoke with Aldridge, he hasn't even requested a trade, let alone demanded one:

Yeah, I know the sky is falling. Everyone EXCEPT our best player is insisting he has demanded a trade.

I disagree strongly. Our two biggest weaknesses last year were our historically bad bench and lack of interior defense, Both of those weaknesses have been addressed.

Aldridge did request the Blazers acquire a legitimate NBA starting center who could bang in the paint for 20 - 25 minutes a game so Aldridge wouldn't have to constantly guard and be guarded by the other team's biggest player. They went out and got Robin Lopez who started all 82 games last season and is a legitimate 7-foot NBA starting center. Aldridge will now get to play next to someone even bigger than he is, and not a 6'9" power forward who doesn't play a lick of defense. That alone is a big improvement in both what Aldridge requested and what the team needs.

We added Thomas Robinson, Dorell Wright, Earl Watson and C.J. McCollum to the bench in place of Nolan Smith, Luke Babbitt, Jared Jefferies, Ronnie Price and 27 games of Eric Maynor (most of which happened after the Blazers were tanking).

You're lack of improvement scenario also neglects to include the improvement of our young players. Do you really believe ALL of LaMarcus Aldridge, Nic Batum, Wesley Matthews and Damian Lillard have reached their absolute peak and that NONE of them will be better this year. What about the rest of the bench? Was last season REALLY a career year for Meyers Leonard, Victor Claver, Joel Freeland and Will Barton, or will all of them be WORSE (or no better) than their rookie year this season?

What we get is valuable post season experience for our young players. You have to MAKE the playoffs before you can hope to advance. Making the playoffs is progress and a step in the right direction.

No, my plan "assumes" that we addressed our biggest weaknesses (worst bench in the 67 year history of the NBA and complete lack of interior defense because we we playing a 6'9" power forward out of position at center), added some better veterans and better young players to our bench. It also assumes that not all of our players have peaked and some of them, 6 who were rookies last year, actually have room to improve. Better bench, legitimate starting center who plays defense, organic improvement of our young players and no tanking = a MUCH better record than last season.

But my real plan is to actually let this team play at least half a season together before panicking and trading our best player (who can't actually "walk" until after two more seasons). Seriously, getting deliberately worse to get better is a long and painful process. Hoping to luck out in the NBA lottery (not just getting a high pick, but then getting lucky that the guy you pick is a future first ballot Hall of Famer) isn't quite as bad as relying on winning the PowerBall jackpot as a retirement plan, but it's still a long shot.

So, rather than blow this team up before they play a single game together, I advocate letting them play some games and seeing how they jell together as a team, how much LaMarcus benefits from playing next to a legitimate NBA center, how much better our bench is and how much our young guys have improved before we blow the whole thing up and start over.

If we take the Chicken Little approach and trade Aldridge now, aren't we just dooming ourselves to at least four more years of lottery picks? And if we are, won't it then be Lillard's turn to demand the trade because he's tired of all the losing? Sounds a bit like lather, rinse, repeat to me. Deliberately sucking in the hope you get lucky only guarantees one thing - that you will suck for the immediate future. I'm tired of the losing, I'm tired of the only thing to look forward to in May is the NBA draft lottery. I want to root for a team that wins more games than it loses and I want to go to a playoff game and cheer for that team, regardless of the outcome. I don't want the new Blazers to be the old Clippers. I don't want to sacrifice wins now in the hope that after 3 or 4 more years of sucking we MIGHT be good enough to be right back where we are now.

BNM

 

That is why it is called speculation and opinion - all this board is really about.

No different than your speculation regarding the quality of the roster you are making claims about. Don't know why you are rudely calling me out.

 

Perhaps because you did the EXACT same thing. You called me out and told me there was a problem with my post and to "Stop right there" - as if your speculation and opinion is somehow more valid than mine. Your entire argument is based on the presumption that LaMarcus is dissatisfied with the team's moves and has demanded a trade. You said so yourself. I provided a quote that Aldridge hasn't even requested a trade, let alone demanded one. I wasn't trying to be rude, just pointing out what I perceive as flaws in your reasoning. You're certainly entitled to your opinion and I'm entitled to disagree. That's how this works.

BNM

 

Eff draft picks. Play to win, let the ping-pong balls fall where they may.

 

No doubt. Even if the team spends years sucking and finally gets lucky enough for a once in a decade prospect and an all-star they could get injured and unable to finish their rookie contracts.

I’d rather not intentionally suck for years. There are undiscovered all-stars available in trades, free agency and the back half of the draft every season. Go get a couple of those. Its not going to be easy, but no road to contending is.

 

For the record, I'm not proposing that we play to lose, but that we put player development over victories this upcoming year. If it means we lose more games than we would otherwise, so be it. Put another way, I'd rather win 5-10 fewer games and have McCollum develop his game which will benefit us in future years than have Wes play heavy minutes at the expense of McCollum's development.

 

Well I kind of agree in that we should give the young guys a chance to work through some mistakes but I’m from the school of thought that its best to have players earn playing time. If they are going to be a difference maker they will show you glimpses, LaMarcus and Nic both did as rookies, Jermaine Oneal had a number of wow moments. If you see something special from a young guy give him a chance to build on that success.

But don’t just give a young player minutes because they are young. They should have to earn major minutes in the rotation. Keeping a young player in the game when they are making tons of mistakes and getting destroyed can be worse for their development then not playing them at all. That’s one reason I don’t like the tank for draft pick strategy, I think players on losing teams pick up bad habits.

I would like to see our starter play significantly less minutes this year. I love the Spurs strategy of giving starters plenty of rest and playing deep into your bench. Its an 82 game season. If we do some of that there will be plenty of minutes available for our bench and young players.