Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis

I thought the debate was over, and that consensus science ruled? Does this new consensus mean that AGW is a hoax and false science?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesta...cientists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

I found this comment to the op-ed piece telling and witty:



If you read the study, you’ll find that the scientists polled are all members of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists in Alberta (APEGA).

According to the study’s authors, “The petroleum industry – through oil and gas companies, related industrial services, and consulting services – is the largest employer, either directly or indirectly, of professional engineers and geoscientists in Alberta…These professionals and their organizations are regulated by a single professional self-regulatory authority –APEGA.”

Given that the vast majority of participants in the poll are directly employed not just by the petroleum industry, but by a sector of the industry involved in one of the dirtiest methods of petroleum extraction (tar sands), it doesn’t seem at all surprising that an inordinate number of them would doubt the danger of climate change, or feel that it’s unlikely to impact them personally. (Especially given the fact that Alberta is hardly at risk from rising sea levels.)

What’s telling is that a very large percentage of them (36%) are nevertheless highly concerned about climate change. One wonders how they sleep at night.

It would be interesting to see the results of a similar poll taken amongst engineers and geoscientists in, say, Bangladesh.

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

So every engineer and geoscientist in that study works in the petroleum industry?

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

I'm sure PapaG just didn't come across that part.

E: I'm also sure his title wasn't meant to mislead anyone that it was a majority in the study, not a majority of all scientists, or even a majority of scientists in the US, nor a majority of scientists in the direct field of climate science.

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

It is a comment, and apparently isn't completely accurate.

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

This is pretty classic denialist cherry-picking. The authors surveyed a group a geoscientists in Alberta that were largely drawn from industry. This is nothing like the Oreskes surveys which evaluate the position of a cross-section of experts and consistently find that the overwhelming majority of climate scientists accept the consensus. This is like surveying the tobacco companies on whether or not they believe smoking causes cancer.

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

As in previous weeks, your editorial rests on misrepresentation of the facts. The survey was conducted by APEGA, a professional organization of engineers and geoscientists in the province of Alberta. According to the study you cite:

“[T]he petroleum industry – through oil and gas companies, related industrial services, and consulting services – is the largest employer, either directly or indirectly, of professional engineers and geoscientists in Alberta.”

Failing to mention this fact is a clear case of misrepresentation. Why are you so eager to mislead Forbes readers? Obviously these survey results cannot honestly be extrapolated to engineers and geoscientists in general as you are trying to do.

* * *

To, to summarize, this paper demonstrated that when surveying a population, largely consisting of geoscientists and engineers working for the the oil and gas industry, the most common view of global warming (between 36 and 41% if you add the two frames) is that it’s real and we need to do something about it. About 34% of respondents were hostile to the idea of green house gas-cause global warming and the consensus science, and these individuals were more likely to be in the upper tiers of these corporations. Finally, about 17% of respondents said we’re screwed either way (the rest couldn’t be grouped or denied adequate expertise to respond).

In other words, it kind of shows the exact opposite of what Taylor suggests, and could not possibly be generalized to scientists as whole.

lol

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

I suggest that you two read the "Methods" section of the actual study, and you'll find that the authors of the study account for this as a part of their sample pool.

I'm not sure either of you know how to read an empirical study and P-values, though. Fortunately, I do from my days in the medical field.

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

It's mentioned RIGHT IN THE STUDY. Read the study and argue with it.

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

For those interested in what the study actually says, I would suggest actually reading it, rather than accepting this summary at face value. I would describe the paper as demonstrating that within a population of geoscientists in Alberta, largely coming from the oil and gas industry, there are 5 general ways of viewing global warming, or “frames”. The most common of these frames is actually the one most consistent with the IPCC consensus at 36%, that green house gases are the driver of global warming and we need to do something about it. Another 5% believed that regulation for green house gases was necessary even if there still is uncertainty or nature as a dominant driver of climate change. Other frames included a one based on fear of economic regulation (10%) that is largely hostile to the IPCC consensus, and another that nature was the primary driver of global warming (24%), man is insignificant, and these respondents used emotionally-heated language and religious metaphor to attack believers in global warming. There were also frames that could be described as fatalist (17%), global warming is real, but we can’t really do anything about it etc.

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

you mean this little part?

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

A better headline would be, “According to a non-scientific survey, a majority of petroleum engineers working in Alberta accept that humans are in part responsible for climate change”

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

The 2 authors aren't scientists. One is an economist in Denmark. The other is a Ph.D. student at the U. of Alberta. Her easy interdisciplinary Masters is between Sociology and Engineering. She has published twice including this time, both propaganda.

Alberta is like Texas, full of big oil companies and conservative politics. This paper is very political and consists of her personal interpretations and subjective groupings after surveying conservative Alberta oilmen. Half of the paragraphs are explicitly political. It goes on and on like a polemic instead of a survey. Here is an excerpt, and I could quote many more like it.

http://oss.sagepub.com/content/33/11/1477.full

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

While I skimmed the paper and wrote my conclusions, Treaty of Batum found comments that agreed with what I noticed. Beautiful. Nice to see this failure of an opening post shot down.

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

papag, you make a post yesterday saying this:

The uber-intelligent atheists patting themselves on the back for this study in this thread didn't even read the details of the study, which is clearly biased and is completely unscientific

And then you post this study and question if the study means AGW is a hoax and false science? Did you read this study and figure out it is bias and does not consists of actual scientists?

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

I know PapaG and he doesn't recycle and drinks coffee in a styrofoam cup!

 

Re: Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Cri

Get him to post, using a Dixie cup and a string!

That's what I meant about the sociology student's "personal interpretations and subjective groupings." The oil industry lobby paid her to send loaded questionnaires to its members, receive only some back from the most motivated members, read comments, and group them her own way.