Why would it be stupid? Impact is completely different than fantasy ratings. Fantasy ratings are based on individual stats. Impact is how a player effects his team's chances of winning and includes things not measurable by the simple, basic stats used in calculating a fantasy rating. For example, last year J.J. Hickson had great individual stats, and therefore an inflated fantasy rating. However, all the advanced stats, and anyone who watched him play, revealed that he had very little positive impact on his team's chance's of winning due to the fact that individual stats did not capture how weak the team's interior defense was with Hickson playing center. Hickson's individual rebounding stats were impressive, but the advanced stats showed the Blazers actually rebounded better as a team with Hickson on the bench. Again, inflated fantasy rating based on individual stats, but poor impact on team performance. Of course, Neal Olshey, LaMarcus Aldridge , most Blazer fans and most other GMs recognized that Hickson's impact was much less than his individual stats would indicate. That's why Olshey let him walk without attempting to resign him, why LaMarcus Aldridge asked for a true center to bang down low for 25 minutes a game and why Hickson had to settle for a much lower contract that he hoped to get. To me that sounds a lot like another way of saying how much impact a player has on his team. A player who plays well (quality) and plays big minutes (quantity) will have the greatest impact on his team's performance and will therefore, be ranked highly in this Top 500 list. Which is why I think Robin Lopez, our starting center, will have greater impact (and hence, a higher ranking) than Mo Williams, our backup combo guard. BNM
I'd be interested in rankings of players pure aptitudes. I don't think an inferior player should rise in ranks because nobody on his team plays his position. Nor should a player be penalize because he has very good teammates at his position. I'd be most curious how all NBA guys would be drafted if coaches got to pick players playground style but for only the next season irrespective of age or contract. That's what I initially thought these rankings were. Oh well. So McCollum would've been ranked significantly higher if he played on the Bobcats? That makes these ranks far less useful.
ESPN projects Wes Matthews as slightly above the average 5th man. The results of the bench rankings is complete. Our second 5 have a net average of 0.74 above the league average. This agrees with what I thought and what I was hoping for. Our third five probably won't play much, and ESPN doesn't think they should: 1.0 Below the league average. Update ("Down" to 129): Blazer's 5th man: 4.3, Average 5th man: 4.5 >>>>> Net: +0.2 ------- Blazer's 6th man: 5.6, Average 6th man: 5.5 >>>>> Net: -0.1 Blazer's 7th man: 6.2, Average 7th man: 6.5 >>>>> Net: +0.3 Blazer's 8th man: 6.7, Average 8th man: 7.5 >>>>> Net: +0.8 Blazer's 9th man: 6.8, Average 9th man: 8.5 >>>>> Net: +1.7 Blazer's 10th man: 8.5, Average 10th man: 9.5 >>>>> Net: +1.0 ------- Blazer's 11th man: 12.3, Average 11th man: 10.5 >>>>> Net: -1.8 Blazer's 12th man: 12.6, Average 12th man: 11.5 >>>>> Net: -1.1 Blazer's 13th man: 13.7, Average 13th man: 12.5 >>>>> Net: -1.2 Blazer's 14th man: 14.1, Average 14th man: 13.5 >>>>> Net: -0.6 Blazer's 15th man: 14.7, Average 15th man: 14.5 >>>>> Net: -0.2 ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 5th man Wes Matthews (130) is ranked as 4.3rd man ------- 6th man Mo Williams (169) is ranked as a 5.6th man 7th man C. J. McCollum (185) is ranked as 6.2th man 8th man Dorrell Wright (200) is ranked as 6.7th man 9th man Thomas Robinson (204) is ranked as 6.8th man 10th man Leonard (255) is ranked as 8.5th man ------- 11th man Watson (370) is ranked as a 12.3rd man 12th man Barton (379) is ranked as a 12.6th man 13th man Crabbe (412) is ranked as a 13.7th man 14th man Claver (422) is ranked as a 14.1st man 15th man Freeland (441) is ranked as a 14.7th man
Here's how the players have changed from last year to this summer: We're currently at #129. The rankings of Damian Lillard and Robin Lopez will show positive improvement. The ranking for Wes Matthews went down likely because of the team's overall record last year (Batum may also suffer this fate). The ranking of Meyers Leonard went up, so he played slightly better than ESPN rankers thought he would. The rankings of the Williams and Wright went down which explains why we were able to get them cheaply (actually it's a chicken and egg thing). The rankings for Thomas Robinson went up slightly, so despite the common perception that he had a disappointing season, his rating went up. ------- LaMarcus Aldridge: 2012=20, 2013=x, improvement = ?Nicolas Batum: 2012=63, 2013=x, improvement = ?Wesley Matthews: 2012=109, 2013=130, improvement = -21Mo Williams: 2012=125, 2013=169, improvement = -44Robin Lopez: 2012=169, 2013=x, improvement = ?Dorrell Wright: 2012=182, 2013=200, improvement = -18Damian Lillard: 2012=211, 2013=x, improvement = ?Thomas Robinson: 2012=215, 2013=204, improvement = +11Meyers Leonard: 2012=330, 2013=255, improvement = +25
In theory, because he'd be playing more minutes (that's the quantity part of the equation). While these rankings may "reward" or "penalize" individual players based on the quality of their teammates, I think it's interesting from a team standpoint - which is the approach Wizard Mentor is taking. How do our starters compare to the rest of the league's starters? Ditto for our top bench players. That's what I find interesting, because if these rankings are reasonably accurate, it should give some indication of expected team success - which is what interests me most. Of course, they still have to play the games, there will be injuries, some players will have unexpected breakout years, others will see their performance decline more rapidly than expected, etc. But hey, it's October and we're still 8 weeks away from the start of the season. So, this gives us something to talk about. BNM
ESPN projects Robin Lopez as significantly worse than the average 4th man. ESPN projects Wes Matthews as slightly above the average 5th man. My feeling is that it isn't that Robin Lopez is "great", but that his skills align so well with our team needs that he fits like a glove. He will be much more valuable to the team than his ranking suggests. The results of the bench rankings is complete. Our second 5 have a net average of 0.74 above the league average. This agrees with what I thought and what I was hoping for. Our third five probably won't play much, and ESPN doesn't think they should: 1.0 Below the league average. Update (To 126): Blazer's 4th man: 4.3, Average 5th man: 3.5 >>>>> Net: -0.8 Blazer's 5th man: 4.3, Average 5th man: 4.5 >>>>> Net: +0.2 ------- Blazer's 6th man: 5.6, Average 6th man: 5.5 >>>>> Net: -0.1 Blazer's 7th man: 6.2, Average 7th man: 6.5 >>>>> Net: +0.3 Blazer's 8th man: 6.7, Average 8th man: 7.5 >>>>> Net: +0.8 Blazer's 9th man: 6.8, Average 9th man: 8.5 >>>>> Net: +1.7 Blazer's 10th man: 8.5, Average 10th man: 9.5 >>>>> Net: +1.0 ------- Blazer's 11th man: 12.3, Average 11th man: 10.5 >>>>> Net: -1.8 Blazer's 12th man: 12.6, Average 12th man: 11.5 >>>>> Net: -1.1 Blazer's 13th man: 13.7, Average 13th man: 12.5 >>>>> Net: -1.2 Blazer's 14th man: 14.1, Average 14th man: 13.5 >>>>> Net: -0.6 Blazer's 15th man: 14.7, Average 15th man: 14.5 >>>>> Net: -0.2 :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 4th man Robin Lopez (128) is ranked as 4.3rd man 5th man Wes Matthews (130) is ranked as 4.3rd man ------- 6th man Mo Williams (169) is ranked as a 5.6th man 7th man C. J. McCollum (185) is ranked as 6.2th man 8th man Dorrell Wright (200) is ranked as 6.7th man 9th man Thomas Robinson (204) is ranked as 6.8th man 10th man Leonard (255) is ranked as 8.5th man ------- 11th man Watson (370) is ranked as a 12.3rd man 12th man Barton (379) is ranked as a 12.6th man 13th man Crabbe (412) is ranked as a 13.7th man 14th man Claver (422) is ranked as a 14.1st man 15th man Freeland (441) is ranked as a 14.7th man
Here's how the players have changed from last year to this summer: We're currently at #126. The ranking of Damian Lillard will show positive improvement. The ranking for Robin Lopez has gone up by 41 spots. ESPN is acknowledging that RoLo will now be a starter and that he should be a starter. This is a profound improvement considering he was probably penalized for being on a losing team. The ranking for Wes Matthews went down likely because of the team's overall record last year (Batum may also suffer this fate). The ranking of Meyers Leonard went up, so he played slightly better than ESPN rankers thought he would. The rankings of the Williams and Wright went down which explains why we were able to get them cheaply (actually it's a chicken and egg thing). The rankings for Thomas Robinson went up slightly, so despite the common perception that he had a disappointing season, his rating went up. ------- LaMarcus Aldridge: 2012=20, 2013=x, improvement = ?Nicolas Batum: 2012=63, 2013=x, improvement = ?Wesley Matthews: 2012=109, 2013=130, improvement = -21Mo Williams: 2012=125, 2013=169, improvement = -44Robin Lopez: 2012=169, 2013=128, improvement = 41Dorrell Wright: 2012=182, 2013=200, improvement = -18Damian Lillard: 2012=211, 2013=x, improvement = ?Thomas Robinson: 2012=215, 2013=204, improvement = +11Meyers Leonard: 2012=330, 2013=255, improvement = +25
In addition to the things you mention, what I find interesting is the national consensus on our individual players. I happily admit to biases in my own judgement and it's nice to compare.
That is funny. Must have been swayed by Hickson's gaudy stats less than Lopez' interior defense. Guess we'll see. BNM
#115 Jarrett Jack ranked better than all but three Blazers. I thought he was a great guard off the bench for us but fans really hated on him his last year here.
#114 for Oladipo at first glance is about right. However, they're going to try to make him a PG which he has never done, so I think it should lower.
