At what point will you believe this team is for real?

Already believe mags. This team looks special this year. All aboard the mags homer train!

 

There is still a lot that has to happen. Teams will figure out a way to defend against our Plan A (see Phoenix), then Stotts has to figure out how to counter. Also, there is still room for the bench to grow. These counterbalancing factors will play out through the season.

In the short term though a 3-1 road trip would be pretty solid.

 

I think 20 games into the season we'll know if they are headed in the right direction for a playoff appearance and by 40 games if that trend is real or just a fart in the wind. If Lillard, Lopez or LMA go down for any extended period of time (10+ games) then forget about it.

 

For me, it's the opposite. I come into the season happy and full of optimism. So, the question for me is when will I believe that they're NOT for real. Easy, I'll believe they're not for real if we ever lose enough to see .500.

 

Same.

 

Pretty fair assessment, but the part I've bolded would be true for the top 3 players of any of the contenders so I'm not sure what it adds to the discussion.

 

CJ is out, so as far as I'm concerned we've never been healthy and we're doing well. Yes, if any of the following goes down for a significant time we're in trouble: Lillard, La Marcus, Lopez. Of course, that's true about most teams.

Frankly, IMHO this team is about as injury proof as we're ever likely to get.

That being said, yes, I'm with you in that I would feel more comfortable it we got another big.

 

Im sticking with my preseason prediction that we challenge for home court and fall somewhere 4-7th seeds. The last few games make me feel like we are firmly in the second tier of this conference. I'd rank San Antonio, Golden State, LA Clips, and OKC all better than us but if things go well we beat out one or two of them. If things go bad I could see Phx, Dallas, Minnesota, or Memphis passing us up.

 

Not all of them at the same time, any one of them for 10+ games.

 

If Lopez goes down, here a sample conversation between coach and GM:
"You want me to activate Leonard?"
"No, he destroys our entire defense."
"But, he's a lottery pick."
"No, he destroys our entire defense."
"He needs experience."
"No, he destroys our entire defense."
"You want Leonard you don't want some random 6'10" 250 lb. guy from the D-League."
"No, he destroys our entire defense."
"I'll see what I can do."

 

That's what I assumed you meant. I'd say it's true for the Thunder, as an example, if Durant, Westbrook or Ibaka went down for an extended period, or the Spurs if Duncan, Parker, or Ginobili suffered a major injury. As competitive as the West is, nobody can afford a major injury to one of their stars.

 

I was just looking at the point differential, how much we win by, and based purely on that, it would make us tied for 6th in the West. I think that's a reasonable standing to finish the year.

 

I agree with the Thunder being vulnerable because of their lack of depth but the Spurs have been dealing without Ginobli for extended periods for years and still seem to manage.

All I'm saying is that the Blazers seem especially vulnerable compared to a lot of other teams ... more resilient and better backups than last year, but not enough to get them to the playoffs when the margins already look pretty thin to begin with.

 

honestly, if we can go 4-0 on this road trip it would definitely speed up my thinking of if this team is real or not. a 9 game win streak would be pretty eye opening. I don't think its that farfetched either considering who we are playing on this road trip. Brooklyn is playin horrible and that was the only game that scared me early on. for some reason todays game scares me a little bit also.

 

I'd love a 4-game winning streak, but each one is a challenge. We rarely even play decently in Boston. We've had trouble with the early start games in Toronto.

 

4-0 and would be good - great even. But when I look at the teams we face I'm less inclined to read too much into running the table.

Caveat: if they manage to win by an average of 10+ points that would be an entirely different thing, that's something that would get my attention and make me think that they've got something cooking.

 

History has showed that point diff is probably the best indicators for a team's success. But this early in the season, it's hard to take this stat too seriously to compare teams as we've all played different opponents. Our diff is decent right now at + ~4, but needs to get a little better.

 

I'll have a pretty good idea after this roadtrip.

 

4-0 would be a dream =) I'd settle for .500 on the road any day.

 

Our lack of interior defense and dependance on perimeter shooting are going to cost us some games. Not to say I don't think our offense is sustainable, just that when our shots don't fall I don't see our defense making up for it on too many occasions. This team will have to find ways to draw more fouls(and hit free throws when they get there), attack the basket, and find ways to get easier points through transition. It's only 8 games in, but it really seems like we are "earning" too many of our baskets, if that makes any sense. We aren't forcing turnovers, nor getting overmatched looks leading to easy fast break points. Defensively I think they need to have guards fighting under picks on PnR defense(I doubt that'll change as it's not Stotts' intent) and dare more teams to make perimeter shots. Overall there's a reason Terry is a coach in the NBA and none of us are, so I imagine he'll be trying to find a way to add a few new wrinkles in the offense and experiment with different lineups defensively.