It's understandable why their would be a lack of belief. Some people thought they would only be slightly better than they were last year which was sub .500. I feel they are for real. I think there will be a time or two they will struggle but I think they are. I also think the more they win, it increases the liklihood of a mid season trade which will bring in another star that many prognosticators think is needed to take the next step.
Whether we win or not, it won't have anything to do with Indy being scared. Veteran, playoff tested teams don't get scared. Were they scared when they went toe-to-toe with Miami and took them to 7 games in the Eastern Conference finals? Hoping for a win, but against Indiana's defense, it will be tough. They are a defensive juggernaut - and it's not just Hibbert shutting down the paint. Their Defensive EFF of 85.6 is ridiculous. There are only two other teams in the league with a Defensive EFF below 100. They are the Spurs (Defensive EFF = 97.3) and the Heat (Defensive EFF = 99.4). They also have a ridiculous Opp FG% of .390. Second best is Houston at .422. They don't just lead the league in these two key defensive stats they lead by ridiculously large margins over some very good defensive teams (Spurs, Heat and Rockets). Our biggest advantage is 3-point shooting. We are 3rd in the league with 3FG% = .414. The Pacers are 14th in the league with 3FG% = .364. On the defensive end, the Blazers are currently 2nd at defensing the 3 (Opp 3FG% = .323), but the Pacers aren't far behind (4th in Opp 3FG% = .332). So, will we be able to get open 3-pointers against Indiana's defense? And, if we do, will our guys be able to knock them down. The good news is Indiana doesn't defend the 3 on the road (Opp 3FG% = .353, 10th in the league) as well as they do at home (Opp 3FG% = .314, 2nd in the league). With Hibbert shutting down the paint, we need Batum and Matthews to REALLY step up tonight. Unfortunately, and maybe it's just the small sample size, but both players are shooting the 3 considerably worse at home than on the road. Nicolas Batum: Home: 3FG% = .351 Away: 3FG% = .429 Wesley Matthews: Home: 3FG% = .439 Away: 3FG% - .561 The good news is Damian Lillard shoots the 3 better at home: Damian Lillard: Home: 3FG% = .438 Away: 3FG% - .375 But, we can't just rely on Damian and LaMarcus against a tough team like Indiana, we need other people (Nic and Wes) to step up. The good news is our bench shoots the 3 much better at home: Mo Williams: Home: 3FG% = .429 Away: 3FG% - .348 Dorell Wright: Home: 3FG% = .421 Away: 3FG% - .321 Dorell Wright may be a real wildcard here. Last season, in 4 games against Indiana, he averaged 13.5 ppg and shot .444 from 3-point range against them. I wonder if Stotts will look to go with the big line-up for stretches tonight with Batum at the 2 and Wright at the 3. All-in-all, as a team, the Blazers shoot the 3 slightly worse at home (.405, 8th in the league) than on the road (.420, 4th in the league). Let's hope the home cooking is working and the shots are falling tonight. Go Blazers!!! BNM
BTW, I'm REALLY excited about tonight's game. I grew up and played high school and college ball in Indiana - I even watched the movie Hoosiers last night on cable. I've now lived half my life in Indiana and half in Oregon. I'm happy for all my friends and family back home that the Pacers are doing well, but of course I'm absolutely ecstatic about my Blazers and their 14-3 start. I'm hoping for a good, hard fought game with the Blazers winning on a last second shot. I really hope it's a close game and it goes down to the final seconds. An occasional blowout can be fun, but it's the close games against the tough, playoff tested teams that build confidence and character. BNM
Our starters vs. their starters: It's interesting that in all the key advanced team stats, Indiana is currently dominating the league. As I posted above, their team defense isn't just the best in the league, it's the best by a ridiculous margin over San Antonio, Miami and Houston. As a team, their Deff (Efficiency differential = Offensive eff - Defensive eff) of 27.8 leads the league. San Antonio at 23.5 and Miami at 22.2 are the only other teams with Deff > 20 (the Blazers are 6th in the league at Deff = 11.4). So, it appears the Pacers have a rather substantial advantage in Deff. However, if you just look at the starters, the gap narrows considerably. Indiana has the best starting 5 in the league with a Deff = 27.5, but the Blazers have the second best starting 5 in the league with a Deff = 22.6. And if you look at our starters at home Deff vs. Indiana's starters on road Deff, it's practically a tie: Portland Home Deff = 17.3 Indiana Road Deff = 17.8 I know every game is a unique event, but I hope it ends up being close and we can pull it out at the end. BNM
Yes, Indiana has played 13 of their 17 game against Eastern Conference opponents. But, to be fair, they actually have a better efficiency differential, in their 4 games against the West, than in the 13 games against the East (Deff = 26.6). But, the sample size is small and hopefully their Deff against the West will take a hit tonight. BNM
Opps sorry, those numbers are for their starters only. If you look at their total team Deff, it's basically the same vs. the West (Deff = 27.5) as vs. the East (Deff = 27.8). BNM
I disagree with this. I think there is little chance of making a trade without having to give up something of value. If we continue to play well I don't see us moving a valuable piece.
He's a Laker fan at heart. When I went to espn to check on happening around the NBA, I scrolled down the twitter feed they have on the front page. All of his tweets were Faker-centric. Stein is on board. Portland still has a lot to prove. Although JA did imply this Pacer game was the one that mattered.
Yeah, I don't think it increases the likelihood of a trade either. Why would Portland want to break something mid-season if it's working so well.
Very true. Personally, I'd be happier if the media was ignoring the Blazers, no Blazer was getting any all-star votes and every team in the league had them penciled in as a guarranteed win. Sneak up on people and foster a nice "us against the world" attitude in the locker-room.
I'd have to say the Suns are a good defensive team and Golden State as well. Credit where credit is due! In my opinion we've beaten 4-5 decent defending teams. This is in response to ponderguy saying we've only beaten 2 defensively talented teams.
Can you imagine the front page headline if we had lost that game to the Lakers? "Lakers come back from a 20 point deficit!!! Blazers are fakes!"
