Why I don’t pay for NBA insider.

If you’ve got ESPN insider, I feel bad for you son - I got 99 problems and stats ‘aint one. (crickets) Point being, I understand basic stats, and even advanced stats, and like most of y’all, I don’t need someone to tell me what they mean. What I don’t understand is why people put any credence in guys like Kevin Pelton, who write NBA stat horoscopes for a living - exclusively for those who pay for ESPN insider.

Horoscopes? Exactly. Sure, some people send money to Benny Hinn while he knocks people to the ground and instantly heals them on stage. I’ve heard people pay palm and tarot card readers to tell them what the future holds. And what about that guy that makes a living “connecting” to deceased relatives to tell those left behind what they are saying in the afterlife? I heard that guy makes some cheddar. So if you’re one of those people, and you also happen to love you some NBA basketball, there’s a good chance you’d be inclined to pay for ESPN insider, because that’s the kind information you’ll get from the delicate genius that is Kevin Pelton and THE SHOENES system (exclusive to “ESPN Insiders”).

The obvious observation is that he, Kevin Pelton, “invented” the formula he calls SHOENES, which attempts to project where teams will finish at the end of the season. What you’ll find if you spend any time reading his “analysis” and “projections” is that he’s wrong. I mean like he’s WRONG – A LOT. It’s as if he stuffed every available stat into his mouth, and what came out was an ornate, multi-hued affair – which many would describe as a plate of hurl. I've partied too hard on an occasion in my youth and thrown up, and I wouldn't call the mess I left in the toilet anything special.

I’ll get into how wrong in a bit, but what makes me laugh openly is that he talks about his SHOENES formula in the 3rd person. “SHOENSE projects… SHOENES tells us…” It’s his system. He created it. He gets all the credit for the results. Yet, time and again, he writes about it like it as if it were an imaginary friend. The effect is that he can deflect responsibility for being patently wrong all the time. Any error he can explain away as the system’s fault, not his own, as though he didn’t rearrange and input the data that resulted in HIS system being the poster child for useless crap.

Don’t get me wrong, I love me some stats like I love me some Jesus. But I don’t send money to Benny Hinn to cure my families ailments, I go to a doctor. I don’t pay fortune tellers for insight, I make my own fortune (Not to be confused with bands and racks. Sorry kids, stay in school.) And I didn't pay to have a guy tell me what my dead cat wanted to tell me after he got hit by that car. Needless to say, I don’t pay for ESPN Insider.

Pelton has been working on his SHOENES system for 5 years or so. I didn’t even know who he was until, your least favorite Gomer Pyle, Ben Golliver ripped his Blazer projection this season for Homer’s Edge (known by Blazer’s Edge via search engines). Pelton (or as he would say, “SHOENES”) projected 41 wins for Portland this season. I mentioned this in another thread, as Pelton already changed the projection to 44 wins, and I haven’t heard anything from him or his system about Portland since. That’s not to say he has not updated his (er… SHOENES has not updated) a third, or fourth, or firth time since. It just means that only the faithful, ESPN Insider sheep would know, because he does not talk about it to the general NBA public much these days. Pacing THIRTY games ahead of a pre-season projection has that effect.

Of course, the vomit he spit out (I mean, that SHOENES spit out) about the Blazers was wrong for too many reasons to count. It was advertised on Homer’s Edge that he was only ONE game off last season, projecting 31.1 wins. (I guess if you’re going to count 0.1 as a win, OK, but it’s just another liberty he takes by manipulating stats.) So we’ll use that standard when looking at the other 29 teams Pelton (I mean SCHOENES) projected last season:

Pelton rank’s and wins project / Actual rank and wins / Differential

EAST PLAYOFFS
1st Miami 58.0 wins / 1st 66 wins / -8
Atlanta 49.1 wins / 6th 44 wins / +6
Boston 48.2 wins / 7th 41 wins / +8
Chicago 46.5 / 5th 45 wins / +2
Philadelphia 45.8 wins / 9th 34 wins / +12
New York 45.5 wins / 2nd 54 wins / -8
Brooklyn 44.5 wins / 4th 49 wins / -4
Indiana 43.9 wins / 3rd 49 wins / -5

EAST LOTTERY
Toronto 40.9 wins / 10th 34 wins / +7
Milwaukee 38.3 wins / 8th 38 wins / +1
Cleveland 32.1 wins / 13th 24 wins / +9
Detroit 30.9 wins / 11th 29 wins / +2
Orlando 27.6 wins / 15th 20 wins / +8
Washington 26.8 wins / 12th 29 wins / -2
Charlotte 20.5 wins / 14th 21 wins / 0
Average East Differential: 6 games

WEST PLAYOFFS
Denver 55.3 wins / 3rd 57 wins / -1
L.A. Lakers 54.3 wins / 7th 45 wins / -10
San Antonio 53.2 wins / 2nd 58 wins / -4
Minnesota 51.4 wins / 12th 31 wins / +19
Oklahoma City 51.1 wins / 1st 60 wins / -8
L.A. Clippers 49.2 wins / 4th 56 wins / -6
Memphis 45.2 wins / 5th 56 wins / -10
Utah 44.7 wins / 9th 43 wins / +2

WEST LOTTERY
Dallas 41.0 wins / 10th 41 wins / 0
New Orleans 35.7 wins / 14th 27 wins / +9
Sacramento 31.9 wins / 13th 28 wins / +4
Portland 31.3 wins / 11th 33 wins / -2
Houston 29.6 wins / 8th 45 wins / -15
Golden State 29.2 wins / 6th 47 wins / -18
Phoenix 28.3 wins / 15th 25 wins / +4

Average West Differential: 8 games

I think some congratulations are in order, no? Two of 30 team he (I keep forgetting, SHOENES) projected the correct number of wins, and he got their rank correct three times out of 30. Well done. Even though he was “correct” in these few instances, that doesn’t mean that his analysis is correct. In fact, it’s crap. It simply does not account for significant variables, which render his projection useless.

What this tells us is that Pelton spends more time explaining why his system failed than he does talking about why it works. The most asinine thing in all of this is that he continually drew comparisons to Nate Silver, article after article (who actually used statistics correctly, and accurately predicted the presidential election results in 49 of the 50 states before a single ballot was cast). Sorry Kevin, Nate Silver you are not. Expect more of the same horoscope fodder this season.

East
1. Miami Heat 2. Chicago Bulls 3. Brooklyn Nets 4. Indiana Pacers 5. Detroit Pistons 6. Atlanta Hawks 7. New York Knicks 8. Toronto Raptors

West
1. San Antonio Spurs 2. LA Clippers 3. Houston Rockets 4. OKC Thunder 5. Minnesota T-Wolves 6. Memphis Grizzlies 7. Denver Nuggets 8. Dallas Mavericks

Side note 1: Stats guys love them some Love. Pelton loves Love’s first name too obviously. If it were up to Pelton, Love would be the MVP every year. It’s no surprise to see Minnesota ranked 4th last season, and 5th this season by Pelton, despite the fact that Love has never played in a single play-off game.

Side note 2: The article about Pelton’s Blazer prediction was posted on Homer’s Edge by Golliver, but has since had the comments section locked, and a large number of comments deleted. I recall because I posted on that specific article before I understood who Pelton was or what his formula was. Pelton actually responded to me, and his exactly response included, “[SHOENES] doesn’t actually project the number of wins.” Huh? Anyway, it’s unfortunate I don’t have a screen shot, because that was priceless. Who knew they sanitized the heck out of their threads, like cleaning up after a toxic spill, and after the sheep have moved onto the next article “By Ben Golliver”? Just when I though I couldn't think less of a shitty message board… scam central meets bullshit bayou.

If you read this much, I can’t very well leave y’all without the moral of this story: If you pay for NBA insider, cool - to each their own. But, if you haven’t, then this might be a good reason to save your money for a box of Twix from Costco. They are far more satisfying and you don’t need to pay me, or anyone else, to tell you so.

- By Blazer Fanatic

 

I LOVE it. I don't have time to break down stats and search for stuff..... They do it for me. Plus I write it off.

 

I use the insider, but I just have them because I can. The little money it cost is like buying a shot of tequila. Leaves me all warm inside

 

Wow. I'll take the tequila, responsibly of course.

 

Well sometimes I like shooting up too and read nba insider. That burning rush and logical inside information is like a mega contradiction

 

A mega contradiction not to be confused or associated with a Starburst.

 

Cool. You can't into sabermetrics. Thanks for sharing.

 

So Twix AND Tequila?

 

Yeah it reminds of the time I went for a walk and saw and old woman walking a pink gorilla. At first I said "no way that fragile woman has the strength to own such a beast", then realized why was I thinking about that when she had a very nice handbag?

 

He's another Homer. He was dead wrong about the Blazers as well. As of last week he was still saying they weren't a play-off team. I think Zach is a good writer, and he's a smart guy, but his bias makes his take unreadable for me personally. Zach was the first I saw to come out and try to explain away, at length, why he and others were so wrong about the Blazers. The answer was, "we're changing the narrative from, "Portland won't make the playoffs" to, "Portland won't win the Western Conference"." The honest answer is, because they don't follow Portland and don't know what they're talking about when it comes to the Blazers. Perhaps that will change over time as they view more Blazer games and pay more attention to the chemistry of this team. I mean, it only took some NY writer one game at the Rose Garden before singing the praises of Portland's team chemistry. What's Zach's excuse?

 

Chocolate is poison for dogs. Your owner should be shot.

 

If I was a dog id rather eat chocolate then re read that nonsense from a sensitive blazer fan. She's seriously worse then mags at this point. It's getting annoying and I may have to use my ignore for the first time ever.

 

Its true, most of it is garbage, I like some of the insider mlb stuff though

 

People don't have countless hours to post on message boards and find stats all day. Therefore insider is helpful to the casual sports fan. Maybe they should watch moneyball to understand the current blazer team?