...gotta love the video game mentality of some writers, and some posters too, for that matter. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hots...ely-make-playoffs-signing-masahiro-tanaka-mlb
..the thing that sums up the whole article for me is the very last line; "That's the use of a Monte Carlo system, putting together all these uncertain probabilities." ..."uncertain probabilities"?...wtf is that?
Here we have a classic example of the (mis)use of Monte Carlo simulation. There is a term for this its called "stretching", to a layman it can be equated to wishful thinking. You can game any simulation, that actually how its supposed to work. You tweak all the data inputs, testing all unlikely scenarios and then report a consensus set of probabilities. This sort of abuse was made famous by the guys that stretched global cooling into global warming. Of course that has now been transformed into Climate Change. Looking forward to seeing how this fuckard spins this prediction when we secure #28 this year.
