So on offense Houston simply does not take mid range shots. So do we worry more about the drives or 3's?
With the amount of 3's we toss up too and Houston's fast play where to we 'give'? Do we shoot 1 and done from 3 and everyone run back (make or miss) for defense to get set? Or do we all commit to offensive rebound and value the 50/50 for extra possession more? I REALLY HATE TO SAY IT, but I sorta like the 1 and done back for defense. 50/50 offensive rebound for a ~45% chance at points that 2nd time around vs Houston's fast break offensive which is WAY more % of success I think.
Portland is 7th in the league in reb%, and Houston is 1st. But the difference between the two teams is less than 1%. Houston plays at a slightly higher pace, but they are so close it's not that remarkable. I don't think either team has a massive advantage/disadvantage pushing the ball or focusing on boards. Looking over their recent schedule, they were pretty mediocre against some pretty mediocre competition. How many really impressive wins have they had since they beat us March 9th? They went 10-8, which is the pace of a 45 win team. 45 wins is 10th place in the West They beat OKC at home (and lost to them on the road). They beat the Spurs, who already had the #1 spot locked up. Aaaaaannnndd.....am I missing somebody? This Rockets team just doesn't scare me that much. Well, they are scary in that they have two elite players, and elite guys can always just go bananas in a series and kill you, but they really haven't been that special lately. To be fair, until about 9 games ago neither was Portland.
To me, the key is going to be how Lillard deals with Beverley. So far, he's disrupted the ball at the point of attack, which has made us slow in setting up our offense. That, in turn, has meant that we're not getting the quality of shot we would like. As a result, I think we're going to try to run Beverley through as many screens as we can. And that's where Freeland will help. He sets really nice picks.
I think the biggest factor is whether Dwight handles the Playoff pressure and stays a good team mate. When things get tense he tends to become more important than everyone else.
Mook, do you think our play over the past nine has been special? I've been underwhelmed. We've seemed to have played to the level of our competition. As for Houston, they have a built in excuse. They lost Howard to an ankle, Beverley to a knee and Parsons missed some games. I don't fear an injured Rockets squad, but if they're close to healthy, we're going to have to play some unbelievable basketball to beat them. They just match up too well with us. The big exception is at PF, which means LA is going to have to have a whole series of those Return-Home-To-Dallas performances. I also think we're going to have to play some serious lawyer ball. We need to get them in foul trouble to get their good defenders on the bench (Beverley and Howard). I saw a stat on ClutchFans where they're a top 10 defense with those two, but one of the worst in the league without them. They're going to grab and flop all over the place. I hate it, but I think we have to do the same thing. Wes is a great flopper, but our other guys suck at it. It's the playoffs, and successful teams do it well.
I know he hasn't played in ages, but I think Freeland is huge for us. First, he's six fouls, which we are going to need as I think we put Howard on the line quite a bit (he's shooting less than 55% this year from the stripe). Second, he sets great picks and plays solid interior defense. I also love his rebounding ability. Third, it means we don't have to go small when Lopez gets into foul trouble, which he most certainly will with Howard. From a stat point of view, I don't think he'll be impactful, but from a rotational standpoint, I think he'll be huge.
I am just not as mentally prepared as I should be for that game that is just going to be blatantly fucked up by the refs. I want so bad for our team to just have a fair shot at this series (I feel like Blazer fans have earned it) and I know there is going to be at least one game that is so bad that we are all going to be somehow still shocked that it really was that bad. Like we didnt know it was coming when we all do. I realize that all of the games are going to have their moments but I feel like at least one will be just horribly over the top bad. How we bounce back from that is a huge factor.
We really let shit calls by the refs get in our head. I think a huge problem is that Stotts never seems to stick up for his players. You see it time after time after time with Popovich, when he sees a crap call he'll go out of his way to get a T and show up the refs. It always seems to work, as the refs change to Pops' point of view. For once, I would love to see Stotts lose it on the sideline, even if it meant getting chucked. There is a rule against flopping, and it should be upheld. If they won't call it against Houston, then they're ignoring it. Also, I think our video guys should replay EVERY SINGLE flop on our Jumbotron and show up the refs if they won't call it. HCP, get to steppin'!
Maybe the as of yet unmentioned ref payola might factor in? Come on Paul Allen, you can buy a couple of these guys
I have to spread more rep. I just want to point out also, Stotts has done a nice job of setting up a system of reads for the players, so if he gets tossed the players should still be able to make decent play calls. And if anything at the very least, the players should improve their intensity.
This will be the key to the series. If Harden is guarding Wes, run the offense through Wes. Besides attacking the defense where it's the weakest it also tires out their #1 offensive option.
Houston leads the league in free throw attempts. It's not like they are bolting on something special in this series specifically designed to screw over the Blazers--they average 31 FTA's/game against everybody. 9 of those attempts go to Dwight Howard, and the majority of his attempts are intentional (because he's so shitty at it). Harden averaged 9 attempts during the regular season this year, 10 last year. He shot 6 FTA's two years ago (his team played 20 playoff games). Last year he shot 11FTA's, and his team lost in the first round. He had one game where he got 20 attempts, his team lost. Another where he had 15 attempts--another loss. The correlation between Harden getting FTA's and winning isn't really that strong in the playoffs. Sure it helps, but it's just one facet. Houston will almost certainly get more free throw attempts than anybody else in the playoffs for as long as they are playing. Howard gets teams in the penalty, and Harden knows every trick in the book to draw a foul. But all that is baked into their 54 win record. Rockets fans might as well complain about Lopez throwing his ass around all the time screening guys out or Lillard running into guys to try to draw fouls. Sure, some of the Rockets tactics are more sleazy, but it's not likely to change in this playoffs series because of refs' change of heart or NBA edict. I think the big difference will be health. Is Howard 100%? He's averaging 16/11, 1.5 blocks since March 1, and only playing 31mpg. What gives? (When Shaq was 28 he logged 39mpg, and he was carting around a lot more beef.) Is Beverley really going to produce, or is he running on 1 leg and just looking good against the Pelicans scrubs and Spurs second stringers? These guys have had health problems all year. Those problems generally don't get better as the season progresses--injuries just accumulate without time to properly recuperate. They've had 12 different starters this year! Meanwhile, Portland has 4 guys who started 82 games this year, and only one bench guy has been forced to start (Wright for 12 games). We are pretty damned sure of what we are getting in the playoffs. Think the Rockets are as confident? I think they know they are getting 30ppg from Harden, they are getting 15 boards from Dwight, and after that they are kind of crossing their fingers everybody is healthy enough and home court carries the day. I tend to be pretty optimistic by nature, and especially so about my team. But there seems to be a lot to be optimistic about here.
That whistle doesnt blow AS OFTEN as it does in regular season...men get to be men in there, this hurts Portland though unless Scotts can get them to buy-into "Play on the ball not for the call". I see too many of our drives in for layups where we are banking on body contact or a whistle and are looking at the man not the rim. So long as we look to score first, then the refs can sort it out. What I DONT want to see is the Beards flopping tip the scale in a game. I dont want to see good aggressive plays against moving defenders called as offensive fouls.
I posted this in another thread, but I think by Game 3 Rolo will have learned how to play Howard and will largely neutralize him (offensively). That could be enough to get into his head and affect his defense and rebounding.
Any stretch where we go 8-1 is special, and will be until I become a Spurs fan. Well, we apparently play at least a little better than the level of our competition, or else we wouldn't have won 8 our 9 games. If we continue to do so, I'm quite fine with the Blazers eking out a 7 game series first round win.
