What are the odds the Bulls sign or acquire Melo? (I say 2%) For all these, "sign" implies as a free agent or acquire via trade, S&T. What are the odds the Bulls sign Stephenson? What are the odds the Bulls trade Boozer? What are the odds the Bulls amnesty Boozer? What are the odds the Bulls re-sign Lu? What are the odds Mirotic is on the team to start the season? What are the odds the Bulls sign Gordon Hayward? What are the odds the Bulls sign Greg Munroe? What are the odds the Bulls trade one or both of their 1st round picks? What are the odds a player drafted by the Bulls either starts or plays 30 minutes a game? Feel free to add your own.
FWIW, I think the odds are low on all of the above except: Maybe amnesty Boozer (50-50) Maybe sign Hayward (40-60) Maybe trade one of their draft picks (60-40) All the rest don't seem likely to me.
The 50-50 on amnesty Boozer is really based upon message board talk. I think the Chairman has said he's opposed to amnesty on Boozer. Only transplant's suggestion that amnesty plus signing a guy for less than Boozer gets paid by the team claiming him on waivers being good for the P&L warmed me up to the idea. http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-whats-real-with-kyrie-boozer-and-melo/ Carmelo’s Free Agency: There are two numbers to think about as Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony prepares to enter free agency: 30 years old and $22.5 million. The first is Anthony’s age. The second is the amount of money he is eligible to receive as a first year salary in a new deal. That figure is not exclusive to the Knicks; he can receive that from any team he signs with either as an unrestricted free agent or in a sign and trade deal. To run the numbers, Anthony can get a maximum five-year, $129 million deal from the Knicks, or he can get a four-year $96 million deal from another team. For most players that fifth year is somewhat moot as the expectation is they’d get that money in their next deal; however in Anthony’s case that fifth year might really matter as its unlikely anyone is giving a 35-year old another $25-$28 million, although crazier things have happened. There are a few teams that get linked to Anthony the most – the LA Lakers and the Chicago Bulls. ... The Bulls are another team that gets mentioned and the fact that Chicago is now sitting on a best case salary commitment figure of $63.95 million means they have zero cap space to work with even if they renounced everything they can renounce. The Bulls do have the option of using the one-time Amnesty roster cut on the final year of Carlos Boozer’s contract ($16.8 million) but even paying him to go away does not get the Bulls anywhere close to $22.5 million. It might get them to $16 million. The Bulls could try and trade away a contract like Mike Dunleavy Jr ($3.32 million) and get themselves to $19 million, but then the team is locked into Anthony, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson with little else. It is absolutely do-able, if the Bulls want to eat those costs, but Bulls sources have said from the beginning that they doubted ownership would approve paying Boozer $16 million to go away and then paying Anthony close to $100 million. If the Bulls could find a way to trade Boozer in a deal that returns Anthony, or Anthony would sign for something in the $15-$16 million range they would do that, but does Anthony really give Chicago a $21 million discount on a four-year deal?
50-50. Melo said he wants to win. He reiterated that just a day or two ago. NY will not win and maybe not even make the playoffs this season. Yes the money is a lot to leave on the table, but the big 3 in Miami did and seems willing to do it again! Yes we will be locked into the main 4, but so was Miami the first year. They didnt have much of a bench. They improved it the next season. So we have to start somewhere. For all these, "sign" implies as a free agent or acquire via trade, S&T. 0%. Talk in the media is Hayward or McDermott. 40%. They will try this first. If Melo says he is coming, you bet they will! Forget what the FO has said in the past. They said they would resign Asik, resign Gordon, Yada, Yada. If they do not amnesty Boozer to get Melo, then there will be a huge up roar among the fan base. 0%. The team did as well if not better without him. Depends, if we get Melo, zero%. He comes over next season. If we dont get a prize star, then 100%. Dont know the percent or odds. They could sign him even if they draft Mcdermott. Then maybe not. Depends on the money. Rumor has it they are trying to move up. So if successful 100% Either in the draft or a sign and trade. 0%
Too many questions, and while we all can have opinions if we choose to, we have precious little actual info to go on. I've got a bad feeling about this offseason. We all know that the Bulls need additional shooting-scoring, but I don't see how the Bulls can realistically get it. After the Melo and Love situations play out, if the Bulls get neither, I hope they bring in Mirotic to back up Gibson. If they choose to keep Boozer to back up Noah, I'm good with it, but not if it prevents the Bulls from bringing in a legit starting wing. TK4E made fun of me recently because I'm not high on Anthony or Love. The teasing was fair. Hate to say it, but I really don't like Stevenson for the Bulls and ain't wild about Gordon Hayward either. Like I said, I'm not likin' this offseason.
I would not be upset if we replaced Boozer with Munroe. We might even have the cap space to sign him after amnesty. I'd start him and use Taj as 6th man. Use the draft picks on scorers and hope one can start or spark the bench mob. Or trade the picks and Mirotic. If Detroit would trade us Munroe for Boozer, we get the MLE and BAE. And the Chairman profits.
I don't think the Bulls will be chasing Monroe (we're talking about Detroit's big guy, right?) particularly if Mirotic wants to come over. My guess is that they'll feel that Noah, Gibson and Mirotic, along with some journeyman to fill in, will suffice for the frontcourt. IMO, their focus should be and will be on the wings. Right now they don't have a top 25 player at either wing.
True about the wings, but... The Bulls have been successful at making the playoffs (the goal!) because they've been loaded at PF/C. Recently it has been Boozer/Noah/Taj. Before that it was Boozer/Noah/Taj/Asik. They loved their Wallace/PJ Brown combo. The cornerstones of the franchise: Curry and Chandler. They even drafted Bonehead... I mean Tyrus... when they were already loaded at PF/C.
No question that the Bulls, and I think most successful teams, highly value frontcourt talent. I just believe that they see Noah and Gibson at about 32 mpg each which only leaves another 32 minutes for Mirotic and the rest of the rostered PF/C players, with Mirotic targeted for at least 20mpg. When I look at the wings, all I see is a 20 mpg (max) sub in Dunleavy who has legit scoring skills. Might Butler and Snell develop these? Yeah, but they also might not. Like a woman in her mid-30s, the Bulls clock is now ticking loud enough that we can all hear it. They have too many holes to fill and the wings are damn near bare. They can't build a powerhouse; they need to build a conceivable contender if they can.
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2013/07/09/ellis-mulling-offers-from-kings-hawks-mavs/ Ellis makes $8M a season, which is reasonable. He had a 16.8 PER, scored (more than a shooter!) 18.6 PPG on 45% from 2pt and 33% from 3pt, to go along with 3.5 rebounds and an unselfish 5.6 assists. For defense lovers, he also had 1.7 steals per game. Clock was ticking last year, too.
I'll leave you with the recent history criticism. I'm just hoping that the Bulls can field a contender for 2014-15.
Past and recent history is a pretty good predictor of what's to come. Like you said, you're not liking this offseason.
Speaking of past history.... http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...ady-bulls-chairman-jerry-reinsdorf-grant-hill
Monroe is also a crappy fit for the Bulls. It's the same old story: Thibs looks for bigs that are both able to guard the rim and cover opposing wings on switches without help. Monroe really can't do any of that. He's a good rebounder. His range is also not awful, which would be a plus. Is there anything he does better than Taj Gibson? Probably not. For that matter, what does Monroe do better than Boozer? I think he'd be better covering opposing guards and wings . . . but he'd still be bad at it. Yeah -- I put the percentage chance that the Bulls sign 'Melo at about 5%. I agree with Transplant, this most likely isn't going to be a pretty off season. I see there being a rather large chance that Boozer's back next season. I saw the write ups about how Gibson being giving a starting role means that Boozer is gone and I don't really get the connection. Gibson needs to start. Boozer is a well above average backup power forward. There's enough minutes for both. I also don't think the Bulls will sign a headliner small forward. If the last few years have taught anything it's that the franchise needs another legitimate star. What's the point in locking in an only-above-average wing this season? There's always next year. Ask the Cubs. So that's what I see. The Bulls will do pretty much just run it back like they did last season, and wait to see what they have from Derrick Rose.
SST, It looks to me like Munroe scores better, shoots better, rebounds better, gets more steals, has a higher PER, is taller, can play C and PF as a combo player better, is 5 or 6 years younger, etc. I think Thibs turns him into a fine defensive player. Taj has been an outstanding 6th man for us. If we can get a better PF to start, why not?
Yeah, I don't see that. Gibson pp36: 16.4 Monroe pp36: 16.7 Gibson TS%: .524 Monroe TS%: .531 Monroe's rebounding numbers look much better at first glance, 10.2 r per 36, than Gibson's 8.5 r per 36, but Monroe's numbers are inflated. Both players have the same offensive rebounding percentage (Gibson 9.8%, Monroe 9.9%). The difference between them is defensive rebounding where Monroe pulls down 21.6% verses Gibson's 17.1%. In other words, the difference in rebounding numbers has to do with team makeup and defensive schemes. Have you ever worried about how Taj Gibson's rebounding on the defensive end? I haven't. What I think the two players are different, as noted above, is how they defend the rim. Gibson's block percentage is 3.7%, verses Monroe's 1.4%. So yeah, I think its fine to make the argument that in some facets of the game the two player's numbers are somewhat similar. You can even say that Monroe's offensive numbers are a half a pinky better (although let's face it -- nothing about the way the Bulls play on the offensive end is conducive to putting the ball through the hoop at a consistent, efficient rate.) But the two players aren't the same caliber. Gibson can both guard the rim and switch on to opposing guards and Monroe has shown neither of those skills. I do agree that the difference in age is huge. But you know what the other thing Gibson is great at? Playing on a reasonable contract. What's Monroe going to sign for? Somewhere between 12M-16M? So I'm not sure why we're discussing this. The Bulls are going to go into this upcoming season with Noah, Gibson, Mirotic, Greg Smith and maybe Jason Collins, barring a free agent signing that requires a full on roster reorganization.
SST, I've always thought that Taj is not a strong rebounder. He rebounds like Lu did, like a SF. Defensive rebounds mean the end of opponent's possession. A great thing. I don't think Mirotic is coming over. IF the plan is to amnesty Boozer, you end up with who as backup PF/C?
Spot on. In terms of defensive rebounding percentage, the Bulls have 3 players who are better than either Monroe or Gibson in Boozer, Noah and Mohammed. It's just damn hard to get a defensive rebound on the Bulls if you're not one of these 3.
