ESPN's summer forecast predicts the Blazers to finish 4th in the West @ 51-31

The PERs against are tough to parse because the team's defensive schemes and help defenders play into that as well. From what most seem to think, Ellis has always been a defensive liability and Parsons is below average defensively, and my own observations haven't run counter to that.

 

I think the top 3 teams are right. (Unless Cp3 or Durant go down) But the next 5 are a crap shoot. We are talking about a few games separating them, so as always it will come down to injuries.

Personally I think Houston and GS will finish higher than Dallas and Memphis. But again it is going to be really close.

 

Miami is not a championship contender but still has enough talent to not be a pushover; agree Chicago could be improved, Cleveland will be nasty, Pacers even without Paul George will be at least decent.

Dallas? Why would they move up in the standings over last year?

Personally I think Spurs end up #1, and I am not sure the Clips will be ahead of Portland; I see a #3 seed as not out of reach.
But Houston had a better off season! Why are they only #8?

 

Disagree on the Pacers. They completely nosedived after the Granger trade last season and now have lost two starters (Lance Stephenson and Paul George) They had one of the worst benches in the league last year. So, I don't look for anyone to step right in and replace George and Stephenson.

Was that supposed to be in green font?

BNM

 

That seems like a reasonable prediction. Finishing 4th would have to be considered a successful season for the Blazers. Where you finish relative to the competition would seem more important that specific win totals.

 

Parsons wasn't a Maverick last year.

Ellis having a good PER against doesn't mean he's a good defender or even that he's a good defender within the Mavericks' scheme. IMO, it mostly means that he got a lot of help that compromised their defense elsewhere, leading to more open shots.

Chandler will help but, again, in his decline phase probably not enough.

 

Agreed. While Chandler is only 31, his body has a lot of NBA miles on it. He's only played more than 66 games once in the last six seasons - and that was 2010-11 when he won the championship with the Mavs. Unfortunately for Mark Cuban, 2010-11 Tyson Chandler is not walking through that door ever again. You should have kept him when you had him. Too late now... Hell the Knicks couldn't even make the playoffs in the pathetic East least season with Chandler as their starting center. He's not going to make the aging, defenseless Mavs into a contender in the West.

BNM

 

They're predicting a pretty large upgrade relative to the rest of the West, which I don't see. I don't think they made up that much ground relative to everyone else. Dallas finished 8th last year and I went with 7/8 this year, which allows for the possibility of a slight upgrade.

 

They also lost Vince Carter and Jose Calderon - their 3rd and 4th leading scorers. They replaced Calderon with the Player Formerly Known as Devin Harris and Fat Boy Felton. Calderon ain't great, but that HAS to be a downgrade at the PG position...

BNM

 

Health wise, yes. He played 80 games to Chandler's 55. The Mavs also lost Dalembert's back-up DeJuan Blair. Who is going to step in and start at center for them when Chandler goes down for the 6th time in 7 years?

BNM

 

Also, while he had a very nice resurgence last year, Dirk is now 36. His offensive game has never relied on freakish athleticism, but is there ANYONE in the league he can actually guard at this point in his career. As amazing as Dirk's career has been, he's no Tim Duncan. Timmie is STILL damn effective on BOTH ends of the court (as we saw during the playoffs).

BNM

 

Their bench is weaker, Dirk is a year older and their starting center is injury prone. I just don't see them improving WRT all the other playoff teams in the West (which is what ESPN predicted - everybody else wins less, Dallas wins more).

BNM

 

Wasn't aware they picked up Smith - a decent back-up when healthy. Really more of a 4 than a 5, but will likely (if healthy) back up both Chandler and Dirk. Until Chandler goes down and they are forced to start Smith at center.

BNM

 

Pacers are going to be awful this year. No Stephenson or George? Miami will be much better than predicted. They start three All Stars still.