I want to preface this by saying I know it's very early and nothing has been won. I wanted to wait until the game was over, but if New York can outscore Portland by 25 points with 4 minutes to go. A similar post is in the "everything" thread. Anyways, as things stand now the Blazers are 10 losses ahead of the Thunder. 25-7 vs 15-17. That means that the Thunder will have to outpace the Blazers by 11 games over the remaining 50 games, to pass them in the division. Right now, Portland is 25-7. Let's assume they go .500 the rest of the way. That is 25-25. That would mean 50-32. OKC would have to go 36-14 to pass the Blazers up, ending the year 51-31. Thats 72% and 59 wins over 82. Not unreasonable. If Portland plays .55 ball the rest of the way (28-22) that would be 53-29. OKC would have to go 39-11 (.78% and 64 games over 82). This is where it starts getting harder for the Thunder to pass. If Portland plays .600 ball the rest of the way (30-20), they would be 55-27. OKC would have to go 41-9 to be 1 game better (56-22). 41-9 is winning at 82%, or approx 67 wins per 82. If Portland plays .65 ball the rest of the season (33-17) they would be 58-24. OKC would have to go 44-6 over their last 50 games to pass Portland. That is 88% and 72 wins per 82. If Portland plays .70 ball the rest of the season (~35-15) they would be 60-22. OKC would have to go 46-4 over their last 50 games to pass Portland. That is 92% and almost 75 wins per 82. If Portland continues at it's current pace of 77%, which is unlikely, that would be 39-11. Or 64 total wins. For OKC to pass the Blazers up, they would have to win 65 games. And to go from 15-17 to 65-17, they would have to go an impossible 50-0. That extrapolates to an 82-0 record over 82 games. It IS still possible for OKC to pass Portland up, but with each Blazers win (and/or OKC loss) it gets that much harder, and means Portland would have to play really REALLY bad.
A few games back Mike Barrett said winning the division secures HCA in the first round. I wanted to make sure we know that's not the case. It only secures being the 4th seed, but not HCA
I have always wondered why they word it that way. As far as I can see, winning the division basically secures the the 5th seed.
Yeah it doesn't make sense to me either. It should guarantee a top 3 seed, which most likely awards you HCA in the first round
Yeah winning the division only effectively guarantee's the 5th seed. I'm glad it doesn't guarantee a top 3 seed as they had it for a few seasons years ago. One of those years the two best teams in the league were the Spurs and Mavs then we had to watch them meet in the second round. Maybe next season the Blazers and Thunder will both have 65 wins so that matchup shouldn't take place until the conference finals. The way we are playing right now I'm not concerned about where we are in the division standings; I'm looking at the CONFERENCE. We could be a top2 seed which would be awesome. Home court until at least the WCF. The west is so insane this year though; I think all 8 playoff teams are contenders. Sure some teams more then others but there are no token playoff teams. I wouldn't be surprised if any one of the 8 went to the finals nor if any one of the 8 got bounced in the first round. I'm going to enjoy every minute of the Blazers success this regular season because you can go decades as a fan without having these times but I'm not going to expect our regular season success to guarantee anything in this years playoffs.
Thanks for doing all of that math - looks like a division banner is destined for the rafters - and hopefully it won't be the only banner going up after this season....
Yeah thanks for all the math. I do like the stat that if we win 7 out of every 10 games the rest of the way we'll get to 60 wins. That would be awesome!
What are the statistical odds of SA and OKC, arguably the two consensus top picks in the West coming into the year, finishing in the 7th and 8th seeds and royally messing up playoff seeding?
I don't think OKC can catch the Blazers. Due to the fact that they have to play West teams also. It's not like OKC is going out and playing the 76ers night in and night out. They have to play the same teams as the Blazers do. Just don't see them being able to play well enough together to make up 11wins. Only way it's really possible is if Lillard/Aldridge go down and miss extended periods of time.
Phoenix has won 6 in a row..........that is the only team I can see not making it in. 3 games back right now. I would put my money on OKC but you never know.
The scary thing is, going 25-52 probably puts you at the 6th worst record. Of course, the 6th pick of two NBA drafts were Roy and Lillard, so...let's tank!
Bs. It was for Thompson, 2013 #1 and 18 and 2014 #1. Wpdnt have been wiggins bc LMA would've made them better last year, but still....
