TL;DR: The sky might be falling, but it's falling on the roof of a house that can withstand it. Looking at four of our young guys compared to four of our starters from the 2010 team in their younger years, I hope to assuage doubts (your and my own) that we have any hope. There is hope. Our young guys have quite a bit of potential that might be more fully realized if we move away from a win-now scenario and move into another win when we're ready scenario. http://bkref.com/tiny/SLk31 This is a comparison of rookie year LaMarcus and this year's Meyers Leonard. It should (a) give you an idea of how far LaMarcus grew, and (b) how far Leonard could grow. Remember that LA his rookie year had basically no footwork, was slow making decisions with the ball, and had a poor outside game. http://bkref.com/tiny/fMzvn This is a comparison of second year Brandon Roy and current year Damian Lillard. Where Meyers is basically a year behind LaMarcus in development, Damian is about half a year behind. There is still room for Lillard to grow (we haven't reached his ceiling, even if his ceiling might be below Roy's 2008-09 season, ultimately). http://bkref.com/tiny/scrhA This is a comparison of current year CJ McCollum and rookie year Wesley Matthews. These two years show the player at the same age, getting the feel for the game. While this takes into account CJ's bad start for the first half of the season, his second half was so good that it actually puts him in the conversation here. CJ shoots as well as Wes from three, and his Defensive Win Share Per Minute (which you need to use your own calculator to find) is actually slightly better than Wesley's. http://bkref.com/tiny/9yQyQ This is a comparison of current year Allen Crabbe and rookie year Nicolas Batum. Again, Defensive Win Shares Per Minutes is comparable to Nic, though rebounding and two-point shooting make Allen less efficient than Nic overall. Three point shooting is comparable though. For three-and-D purposes, these two players are interchangable right now.
Some interesting analysis there. Is it bad that I am less offended by the Leonard/LMA comparison than by comparing Dame to Roy? I can't imagine Roy (pre-knee implosion) playing as bad as Dame is now.
Maybe this is why: Last night, LaMarcus Aldridge played 42 minutes and got a 23.9 PER... Meyers Leonard played 16 minutes and got a 23.8 PER. Lillard's PER last night was 3.5.
Last game really showed me how inferior Lillard is to what Roy was. Roy was unstoppable isolated 1 on 1 and could get a layup, foul, or great shot for a teammate any time he wanted. Lillard is solid but you can't depend on him to create offense against good defense. Saw it in last years playoffs against the Spurs who were far better than the terrible Rockets perimeter D. Roy was great in the playoff series against Houston in his one and only healthy playoff series. Damian took terrible shots last night and while yes I expect him to play better he needs multiple teammates to put pressure on the defense or he needs to play against bad opposition defense. It's becoming very evident why Lillard was the 3rd choice all star alternate. He's just an average starting PG; which is very solid in today's NBA but nothing that can elevate a team against good competition in the playoffs.
There have ben at least 20 Blazer playoff guard performances worse than Lillard's last night. http://bkref.com/tiny/Tgsfs Note that two are from Terry Porter.
If you remove the FG% requirement, and just go with Game Score of 4.2 or less, Damon is on there 17 times.
Agreed. Roy had the opposition focusing all their defensive attention on him and still managed quality shots for himself and teammates. He lead an offense more efficient than any team this season right up there with the Steve Nash era Suns. Lillard is a slightly above average NBA PG who is bad on defense. He is a clear step below CP3, Curry, Wall, Irving, Westbrook. Last night a hobbled Mike Conley with one foot handily outplayed him. He won't have crappy defenders such as Jeremy Lin, James Harden and Chandler Parsons giving him wide open looks this series.
Like Meyers Leonard, I think it's wise to give Dame the entirety of his rookie contract before making a summary judgment, but we are starting to see his ceiling, which is something we never really saw with Roy.
Lillard was great in the playoff series against Houston. Did you actually watch it? Because he did "elevate a team against good competition in the playoffs"....
Dame has a donut hole in his game. He nearly always shoots a three or drives to the basket. Memphis was keying on both of those options yesterday. Seems to me that he needs to take a look at what Udrih was doing yesterday and look for more mid-range shots.
Pretty sure that Stotts is way more aware of what was going on than I, you, or any other of the folks on this board.
That is on purpose on his behalf because it is the least efficient shot in basketball. Dame needs to work on it. But in practice first. Not in a game.
Welcome to today's NBA. The current "conventional wisdom" is that every shot is supposed to be within 10' of the hoop, or from beyond the arc. The mid-range jumper is supposedly the worst type of shot there is. Stat-rats will staunchly defend this point of view....but I would find it more convincing if the "dunk or trey" mindset didn't jibe so nicely with the "Sportscenter highlight" mindset. Call me a cynic.
