There aren't a lot of prospects who are skyrocketing their stock outside Kristaps so I think you can get a clear picture of who is likely to be there at #23. I do this every year -- make your picks: Likely: Darkhorse:
Likely: A) Delon Wright (if the draft goes as expected) B) Rondae Hollis-Jefferson/Jerian Grant (if they fall) Darkhorse: Kevon Looney
It's way early to be doing this, but all right: Just possible but unlikely: Jerian Grant, RJ Hunter, RHJ, Upshaw, Looney Likely: Delon Wright, Justin Anderson Dark Horse: Vezenkov, Hernangomez, Andrew Harrison My hope: I don't really have one at this point. I can see the pros and cons in every player and they could be awesome and they could be busts. Hell, I wanted Mirotic but was prepared to defend Nolan Smith at the time... I think I will be happier with a draft-and-stash guy, though, in part because I think that will be a sign of an exciting free agency period to come.
If I could do one thing that would settle this for me: kidnap all Robert Upshaw's coaches and teammates and inject them with a truth serum and grill them about him. Is he a guy who actually cares about basketball but just enjoys a toke on the side or is he a space cadet? Okay, two: a complete medical prognosis on him, as well. Because if he (a) has at least average motivation and isn't Michael Beasley or Larry Sanders, and (b) isn't going to drop dead in the next decade, you basically have to take him. Even if you don't want him to be a Blazer in the long run, he'd be a really valuable asset, way above the value of the #23.
That. At #23, it's BPA and Upshaw could easily be the Best Player Available at that point. It is a risk but the reward is higher as well and if you miss, it's not such a big deal. Tons of teams miss at that point. Likely: Wright/Anderson Darkhorse: Jordan Mickey...almost 4 blocks per/36, a great wingspan and an all conference PF SEC in a conference that had Kentucky. RHJ if he were to fall that far but what an anti-Stotts pick.
The more I think about it, the more I think that Justin Anderson will definitely not slip past our pick. If there's a pattern to our draft picks since Olshey took over (and actually before) it's to go for really high character, well-spoken guys, and from what I understand, Anderson fits that mold to a T.
My "Big Board" is ranked like this - understanding that several of these players will be drafted before Portland gets a chance: 1) Bobby Portis 2) RHJ 3) Kevon Looney 4) Jerian Grant 5) Delon Wright 6) Robert Upshaw (would need to pick up a second pick to select him) 7) Guillermo Hernangomez 8) Rashad Vaughn 9) Justin Anderson 10) Christian Wood ***Projected 1rst round picks (after ~ 16) to AVOID*** - Sam Dekker, Tyrus Jones, Montrezl Harrell, RJ Hunter Short list for second round picks (if purchased) in order - Aleksandar Vezenkov, Richaun Holmes, Michael Qualls, Mouhammadou Jaiteh, Chris McCullough, Jarell Martin, Jordan Mickey, Corey Hawkins
If we stay at #23, I hope Rondae is there. If he's gone, I think we'll snatch up one of the "older" point guards, Delon Wright or Jerian Grant. I was browsing through a few recent drafts and it seems like the players that are producing from that point in the draft and on are college Juniors and Seniors that were knocked for not having enough potential or they weren't big enough or didn't have enough athleticism. If we stay, I think our chances of finding a rotation player could be from the older college prospects.
1) RHJ 2) Wright 3) Anderson 4) Hunter Not that I think we will draft any of those guys - but that would be my list. Upshaw is the obvious wildcard - but I can't see him slipping unless there are serious concerns about his character/health.
I like your top two. Both excellent defenders. Both fill a need. Although I have been a Delon Wright advocate, I also see a lot of Jerome Kersey in RHJ and that turned out OK. I am starting to lean towards Jefferson.
1. Bobby Portis - Probably gone by #23. One of the best offensive rebounders in country. 2. Delon Wright - A good fit next to Lillard and McCollum. Can run the point and has the size to defend the 2 guards. 3. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - A defensive hustle guy, but can he develop an outside shot? 4. Kevon Looney - Probably gone by #23. Limited offensive skills, but he's young and has good size. 5. Jerian Grant - Probably gone by #23. Good size and ball handling. Limited outside shot. 6. Montrezl Harrell - This may be our "Likely" pick. A bit undersized for a power forward, but good energy. 7. Justin Anderson - Nice outside shot, but can he create for himself? A smaller version of Allen Crabbe? 8. Christian Wood - Good shot blocker and solid rebounder. Young and nice size. My "dark horses" - I'm not a fan of RJ Hunter. He's called a "shooter", but only shot 39% fg last year, and 30% from 3. Yes, he shot better his sophomore season, but I think there are better options on the board. I'm also not a fan of Dekker. He doesn't excel at any one particular skill. Upshaw is tempting, but I think there are too many red flags with him.
He's projected after our pick, but here's my wild guess: OKC might shock everyone by taking him in the lottery. Presti has never been afraid to take a player he likes way earlier than projected (Westbrook being the most glaring example) and they need to replace Bobby Jackson, and they like big guards who can play defense. Of course, now he'll go undrafted. He's shot up draft boards and looks like he'll be long gone by #23. I would be shocked if we took him, especially in light of the kind of players we've signed for Summer League. He just doesn't seem like the kind of player our front office goes for. I don't see the similarity, really: Crabbe is a tall, skinny SG, who was the centerpiece of his college team's offense and ran off a ton of screens, a la Rip Hamilton. Anderson is a WIDEbodied classic 3-and-D SF. I say this is our default pick (partly because he "fits the culture" but also because he makes defense a real priority and is supposed to be able to guard 3 positions). I find him very tempting because he's built like Klay Thompson (seriously, you can compare them here) and he also fits the culture. He's not just a shooter, either - 4.7 rpg, 3.5 apg, 26 PER - and his stats might be affected by having had to be THE guy for his team. BUT I think you're right that he's a big risk and needs to have better shooting %s given the low level of competition he faced. Agreed. Plus, the whole Orphan Black Evil Clone thing. Agreed. If he drops to 23 he'll keep dropping because GMs will worry that other teams know bad stuff they don't know.
