A Statistical look at the 2015 NBA Draft

Hobbesarable · Jul 25, 2015

42N8Bounce said: ↑

I wanted to find a way to compare the different college players and predict their NBA success. For example, how do we compare a senior center from Duke, to a freshman guard from Weber state? How have players with similar stats fared in the NBA?

Here’s what I did:

I first take the basic stats (FGM, FGA, 3PM, 3PA, FTM, FTA, Ast, Dreb, Oreb, Blk, St, Fls, TO) and made a few adjustments:

- 40 minute game
- Team’s strength of schedule
- Team’s win/loss record
- Players class (FR, SO, JR, SR)
- Players age

I then take the adjusted stats and place a weighting factor on them (similar to PERs), with some additional modifications:

- Scaled 0 – 100

* 60 is a solid starter
* 50 is the break between a starter (higher than 50) and bench (lower than 50).
* 40 is a solid bench player
- Height of player taken into account

* A ‘big’ gets a premium for rebounds/blks.
* A ‘small’ gets a premium for assists/stls.
* A ‘wing’ gets a premium for scoring and a balance of reb/blks/ast/stls.
- All ‘negative’ stats aren’t graded equal

* Hustle factor: A player doesn’t get graded down as much for fouls if they get a lot of rebounds, blocks or steels.
* Ball handling: A player doesn’t get graded down as much for turnovers if they get a lot of assists.
* Knowing your role: A missed two pointer or three pointer isn’t as bad for a player that typically makes them (I’d rather have my best 3 point shooter miss a 3 pointer than someone who doesn’t typically take or make them.)
- Ball-hog factor. A player that has a very low points-to-assist ratio is graded negatively for not sharing the ball.

I then take the adjusted stats and compare them against a database of over 1,100 college players that either played in the NBA, or were drafted. I adjust the players rating up or down depending upon the average success of players that had similar adjusted statistics.

I call the final rating the BdB Score. BdB is short for a few things – First off, it’s my initials. It also stands for “Basketball database”.

I’ve put my results and notes here: http://www.nbadraft.net/nba_mock_drafts/comments/29791

This is not a mock draft, but rather a listing of the results of the BdB scores. It only includes those players that have college stats from the previous season. No foreign players are ranked.

Here are the top 15:

1. Karl-Anthony Towns, 72.6
2. Jahlil Okafor, 66.4
3. D’Angelo Russell, 63.6
4. Cameron Payne, 60.9
5. Frank Kaminsky, 59.7
6. Justise Winslow, 58.8
7. Tyus Jones, 58.1
8. Stanley Johnson, 57.5
9. Kelly Oubre, 57.4
10. Delon Wright, 56.8
11. Bobby Portis, 55.0
12. Cliff Alexander, 54.6
13. Jerian Grant, 52.9
14. Devin Booker, 49.0
15. Sam Dekker, 46.1

Some others of note:

21. Trey Lyles, 44.2
24. Myles Turner, 42.6
30. Robert Upshaw, 39.6
33. Willie Cauley-Stein, 38.2
34. Montrezl Harrell, 38.1
35. Justin Anderson, 37.9

Cameron Payne, Tyus Jones and Delon Wright are rated higher than I expected. Cliff Alexander is the highest rated player that will probably be picked in the second round. I’m also surprised Miles Turner and Willie Cauley-Stein are rated so low. Only time will tell…

Of course no rating system or predictive measurement is able to capture all of the factors. Misses definitely happen. But it’s fun to give it a shot and see how it turns out in the long run. I’ve been tinkering with this over the past few years and tweaking it to line up with the drafts since 1997. Some of the highest BdB scores since 1997: Anthony Davis 85.5, Kyrie Erving 84.2, Elton Brand 81.9, Kevin Love 80.9, DeJuan Blair 80.7, Blake Griffin 79.3, Michael Beasley, 76.7, Kevin Durant 76.4 (Greg Oden 63.8), DeMarcus Cousins 76.4, Dwyane Wade 74.0, Paul Pierce 73.6, Vince Carter 72.5, and Stephen Curry 72.4.

If the Blazers stay at 23, I’m hoping they pick up Delon Wright if he’s available. I think a big guard like him would match up well with Lillard and McCollum. Bobby Portis would be a great pickup if he falls to 23. More than likely he’ll be gone by then though. Cliff Alexander would also be a good value pick if the Blazers could acquire a pick in the second round. If he can overcome some of his red flags he might develop into a nice player.

The draft is always a fun time of the year! Let me know your thoughts…
Click to expand...

It is an interesting way of creating a mathematical model determining player's potential you think has the most value. Have you considered high school and college injuries as a factor for your model?

I would also like to see certain aspects of the game that usually don't show up in the stats report. Of course, that requires a lot more detail and probably hundreds of hours of research. Hopefully the NBA will be able to track those kinds of details more thoroughly now that they have Player Tracking.

Kudos to you, partner!

42N8Bounce · Jul 25, 2015

Hobbesarable said: ↑

It is an interesting way of creating a mathematical model determining player's potential you think has the most value. Have you considered high school and college injuries as a factor for your model?

I would also like to see certain aspects of the game that usually don't show up in the stats report. Of course, that requires a lot more detail and probably hundreds of hours of research. Hopefully the NBA will be able to track those kinds of details more thoroughly now that they have Player Tracking.

Kudos to you, partner!
Click to expand...

Excellent points. A weakness this model has is measuring those 'other' factors such as injuries, drugs, low BBIQ, NCAA infractions, etc.

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A Statistical look at the 2015 NBA Draft

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A Statistical look at the 2015 NBA Draft

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