Trump Dominating polls, even with RINO plants sabotage him

Discussion in 'Blazers OT Forum' started by magnifier661, Oct 13, 2015.

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  1. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    I've also seen demographics change as well like age, sex and race not being balanced. Some polls poled 100 with the age of 45-60, but only 20 at 18-25. The hispanic vote was like 15%, while the african american was 10. Things like that.
     
    magnifier661, Oct 27, 2015
    #261
  2. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    SlyPokerDog, Oct 27, 2015
    #262
  3. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    [​IMG]
     
    SlyPokerDog, Oct 27, 2015
    #263
  4. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Mags, you are going to way too much work here. All you need to do is just say that the polls need to be 'unskewed'.

    You can ask Denny for help on this.

    barfo
     
    barfo, Oct 27, 2015
    #264
  5. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Pfft...
     
    magnifier661, Oct 27, 2015
    #265
  6. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Republican voters stayed home. The polls were skewed.

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence...s-founder-dean-chambers-on-polling-bias.html#

    Your website, Unskewed Polls, claimed that it was “erasing the bias” in the major polls by adjusting results to show much more favorable outcomes for Mitt Romney. You turned out to be wrong on Election Day. Why did you miss by so much?
    The whole notion of the polls being skewed and unskewing them was a belief that they were oversampling Democrats. The majority of the polls that were quote-unquote skewed were around 6 percent more Democrat than Republican. Many of us believed that the electorate was going to look more like 2010 rather than 2008. We just turned out to be wrong in that belief or assumption or prediction, whatever you want to call it.

    Why did you assume that this election would be more like 2010 than 2008?
    Polls showed, supposedly—and you have to even question this part of it—showed Republicans supposedly following the election more closely than Democrats, and were more enthused about the election than Democrats.

    So you were extrapolating from polls that showed an enthusiasm gap?
    Right. You know, what it really still comes down to is one can either look at a whole lot of information and try to make some calculation or set some probability of it, or one can just make an educated guess on whether you think the electorate is going to be, say, 35 percent each of Republicans and Democrats, or you think it’s going to be 39 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2015
    Denny Crane, Oct 27, 2015
    #266
  7. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    The pollsters got it right. Obama, and not Romney, won the election. Your wishful thinking was what was incorrect.

    It's yet another case of 'well, I know better than the experts in the field'. Which rarely works out well, and didn't here.

    barfo
     
    barfo, Oct 27, 2015
    #267
  8. Sedatedfork

    Sedatedfork Rip City Rhapsody

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    Regardless of what poll you look at now, though, doesn't seem like Trump is dominating the polls. I guess we will all see and it will probably go up and down as time goes on.

    @magnifier661 -- 2 questions for you.. If Trump wins, who is his running mate? Do you think any of the other candidates would pick Trump for VP?
     
    Sedatedfork, Oct 27, 2015
    #268
  9. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    The pollsters got the result right, for the most part.

    The polls were still skewed.

    Republican voters stayed home or the pollsters would have been wrong.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...ase_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106-2.html
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 27, 2015
    #269
  10. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Trump would never agree to be someone's VP.

    [​IMG]
     
    SlyPokerDog, Oct 27, 2015
    #270
  11. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Sarah Palin. Mags will tell you it will be Mark Cuban but Cuban has too much fun being Mark Cuban.
     
    SlyPokerDog, Oct 27, 2015
    #271
  12. Sedatedfork

    Sedatedfork Rip City Rhapsody

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    It will be like a Game of Thrones situation. Trump becomes president.
     
    Sedatedfork, Oct 27, 2015
    #272
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  13. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    1.) Trump will not agree to be a VP.

    2.) I really don't know who Trump would have as a running mate. I know who I would like, but I doubt Trump would want him. I would love a Trump/Paul ticket.
     
    magnifier661, Oct 27, 2015
    #273
  14. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    But we are talking accuracy. How on or off were they on the final numbers? I know Rassmuson was only 1% off from last presidential election?

    Analysis: Most Accurate polls from 2008 presidential election
    2008 Pollster Report Card
    [​IMG]The table below is an assessment of pollster performance in the 2008 Presidential election. The pollsters were graded on both the accuracy of their final poll (popular vote) and the consistency of their polling during the month of October.

    The overall score is a weighted average of their Accuracy and Consistency numbers. The weighting is 75% accuracy and 25% consistency. Formula details are at the bottom of this page.

    image.png
     
    magnifier661, Oct 27, 2015
    #274
  15. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Analysis: Most Accurate political polls from 2012 presidential election

    Poll Accuracy in the 2012 Presidential Election
    [​IMG]Here is a list of the Most accurate Political Polls for the 2012 Presidential election between President Back Obama and Challenger Mitt Romney from Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D. Department of Political Science, Fordham University

    1. PPP (D)*
    1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
    3. YouGov*
    4. Ipsos/Reuters*
    5. Purple Strategies
    6. NBC/WSJ
    6. CBS/NYT
    6. YouGov/Economist
    9. UPI/CVOTER
    10. IBD/TIPP
    11. Angus-Reid*
    12. ABC/WP*
    13. Pew Research*
    13. Hartford Courant/UConn*
    15. CNN/ORC
    15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
    15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
    15. FOX News
    15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
    15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
    15. American Research Group
    15. Gravis Marketing
    23. Democracy Corps (D)*
    24. Rasmussen
    24. Gallup
    26. NPR
    27. National Journal*
    28. AP/GfK

    Read More – Analysis: Most Accurate political polls from 2012 presidential election

    Related:

    Related
    A breakdown of the most recent Obama versus Romney polls
    Over the last week, four new national polls have been released on the 2012 presidential race. As seen below, the polls vary widely. At the two extremes, there is an 18-point swing between the Rasmussen Reports poll showing Mitt Romney ahead, and a Bloomberg poll showing President Obama with a…

    In "polls"

    Politisite delivers the latest Breaking Political News, Debate Coverage, Election Results, Commentary and Analysis. We provide in-depth news with special reports and interactive political coverage. Politisite was a pioneer in internet political news gathering and dissemination. Politisite came live in early 1998 and become the first internet only news source to cover local, state, and national political campaigns, debates and elections. Before there were the terms Blog, Blogger, New Media, or Crowd-sourcing, Politisite was developing what has become the standard in political news coverage, long before most political sites were even conceived. The Name ‘Politisite” simply means Political Website.
     
    magnifier661, Oct 27, 2015
    #275
  16. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Denny Crane, Oct 27, 2015
    #276
  17. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    A +10 lead is a commanding lead with a field of 15 candidates.
     
    magnifier661, Oct 27, 2015
    #277
  18. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Polls are only accurate when I agree with their results.

    - Everyone in this thread
     
    SlyPokerDog, Oct 27, 2015
    #278
  19. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    2 other polls released today, besides the CBS poll and a margin of error of only 2 and 3shows Trump leading by 14 nationally

    Donald Trump is well ahead of the pack heading into Wednesday night’s third Republican presidential debate, according to a new poll.

    Trump has a 14-point lead over his nearest competitor before the contest in Boulder, Colo., according to a One America News Network survey.



    ADVERTISEMENT
    Pollsters found support for the real estate mogul at 35.6 percent, compared with 21.7 percent for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) trails the pair, with 10.7 percent.
    “It’s all Trump going into the third debate,” One America CEO Robert Herring Sr. said in a statement Tuesday morning.

    “Mr. Trump’s continued top national ranking will also make him the candidate to target Wednesday night,” he added.

    Former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.) ranks fourth in the new poll, with 7.6 percent. Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina follow, with 5.9 percent to her 5.7 percent, respectively.

    The poll questioned 906 registered Republicans and has a 3-point margin of error.

    In recent weeks, Carson has made significant in-roads on Trump’s dominance in the race. A CBS News/New York Times poll also released Tuesday shows Carson edging out the outspoken billionaire for first place nationwide.

    Carson leads Trump, 26 percent to his 22 percent, in to that survey. Carson recently surged past Trump to take the lead in the early-voting state of Iowa.

    Trump has responded by gradually turning up the heat against Carson despite their past warmth on the campaign trail.

    “Some of these polls coming out, I don’t quite get it,” he said Tuesday of Carson’s appeal on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
     
    magnifier661, Oct 27, 2015
    #279
  20. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Yes because of all 30 nationwide polls, Carson leads only 1. All the rest have Trump leading. Smart...

    Seems to me the focus is on the only poll that doesn't have trump in the lead and everyone is ignoring the others. So maybe your statement is right. Maybe the media and naysayers or commie Sander supporters will believe the one that they agree with.
     
    magnifier661, Oct 27, 2015
    #280
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