http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago-bul...ls-should-deal-gasol-sooner-rather-than-later Makes the arguement to trade him now for anything. Go with Cristiano Felicio and Cameron Bairstow @ Center and give Portis more minutes. What do you think?
I feel like at this part of the season it's hard to hear the signal through the noise. The Bulls are legitimate contenders this year if both Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose play like superstars over the course of a seven game series -- something like five out of seven games a series throughout the playoffs. That is still pretty unlikely, but over the past month or so both of them have sporadically began playing at that level. I thought Derrick's handle looked as good against the Pistons as it has at any time since he started sustaining injuries. Where does that put you? I think it means that the Noah injury actually leans in favor of retaining the roster as is. You're no longer going to get a haul by trading away Noah, Gasol and Rose. Noah has no trade value, you still need to see what you have in Rose, and you were never going to get much for Gasol in isolation. I think you stand pat and try to make a run.
During out losing streak I never looked at the standings to see where the team stood. When I checked last night I was shocked to see they were the 3rd seed. How do you lose 5 out of 6 and drop 1 spot in the standings in a tight conference?! There's a lot more distance between us and Cleveland so #1 is pretty much unreachable unless we go on a tear, but the bottom hasn't fallen out of our regular season chances. And as weird as this team is, if we get the #2 or #3 seed we're a decent bet to make the ECF. When's the last time a team with that kind of seeding traded away a marquee player for marginal draft picks? The Friedell article talked about trading Pau for 2nd rounders! Don't see it happening. One of the under appreciated aspects of retaining a player is the ability to resign him, which is an asset in its own right. What are the chances we could acquire someone better than Pau with the flexibility provided by our 2nd round draft picks? Seems remote. I doubt he gets traded.
Gasol for 2nd rounders? No thanks, unless the team is in full tank mode. If you could get a 1st for Gasol you would have to consider it if you think that Rose is going to remain at around 11-12 PER for the year and playoffs. The team isn't going to win a title or get by Cleveland if that's the case. If Rose can just get up to being a borderline all-star again you have a serviceable "big 3" in Butler / Gasol / Rose and a solid supporting cast as well. Could give Cleveland a run. And you never know when and who the injury bug will bite. Who thinks Rose can do this though?
I'm going to be the optimist. I think Rose will show up provided that he makes it to the playoffs reasonably healthy. You jack that guy up with some pain meds and I'll bet he'll throw himself into giants for three or four series. His skills are coming together; he's starting to find his stroke after his eye problems; I really like his handling; and he has a ton of less pressure on him this time around. I don't think Rose can play great over an extended regular season period -- he's prematurely aged out of that. But for the playoffs in front of cameras? I think he could kill it in five of seven games for three rounds.
In January Rose has put up 17.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, .7 spg in 31 mpg, while shooting .476 from the field. And that feels scalable to me. If the playoffs started today, he'd score over 22 ppg. We just have to hope he reaches the playoffs as relatively healthy as he is now.
I was just going to start a new thread about this. Derrick may have silently turned a corner these last 10 games. Over half his shots are coming in the paint, and he's converting his attempts there at 59% with block percentages close to his historic levels. Inside the three point line his game has really been pretty good, including an uptick in his FT rate (although this is still well below what he would need to be a really efficient player). What's also interesting is that during this time Jimmy Butler has averaged twice as many assists as Derrick has. It looks like Jimmy may have really turned into a PG, and Derrick Rose might be our new Ben Gordon. This is a trend to keep an eye on. I don't know how to get a player's PER over a segment of games, but if we can get attacking 18 ppg/54 TS% Derrick with borderline superstar Jimmy and all-star Pau, it's not a perfect shot at the East, but it's as good as any other team outside of the Cavs.
Trading Gasol for whatever you can get, even if it ain't much is a "white flag" move, i.e., surrender. Sometimes surrender is the right move, but if you raise that flag even a little bit too early, your name will live in infamy. Of course, a writer or a fan doesn't have to worry about such things since their opinions hold no sway. I'd trade Gasol for the right deal. I wouldn't trade him for whatever I could get. I'd need to get a real piece. I absolutely don't see this kind of deal happening.
Right now I'd put the Bulls' chances of making it to the ECF at about 40%. I'd put their chances of making it to the finals at about 10-15%. I'd put their chances at winning it all as being around 3-5%. Ie, they're a very good team, but they're clearly a tier below the best teams and it'd be very difficult to beat two top tier teams in consecutive 7-game series. In that sense, having Gasol around might be a waste since he's a quintessential "Win Now" kind of guy, and the Bulls are a good but not great team. So it might make sense to move him for someone who can shift the title chances a few years in the future with a higher percentage. The problem of course is, what are the chances that player we acquire is going to be better than Gasol is right now? His PER is 22. It's probably pretty slim. It definitely isn't going to happen with a pair of 2nd rounders. We certainly don't have any rookie contract guys who project out to being even close to his level of production. This team has more talent than it has players with high trade value. So I think the best course of action for this team is to try and maximize output from its current roster, even though it's a low-probability hail mary.
