Who would you trade CJ McCollum for?

Define "junk stat".

 

Yeah... well... u didn't so there's that. Really? Name calling?

 

Me and DRPM sitting in a tree...

Good to know that somebody cares enough about me to know what my "go-to stat right now" is.

Meanwhile me and assists/game had a serious falling out. Don't even ask.

 

He's defended only by the opposing team's best defensive player, because they're not fouling him?

 

I don't know (nobody does) but I think it's a lot more likely to happen vs. not. KAT doesn't have a good chance @ HOF?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ys-karl-anthony-towns-will-be-a-hall-of-famer

^ Does KD's opinion count? KD & I smoke the same stuff

http://nba.cdn.turner.com/nba/big/t...llardLrkPOST31JAN16__.mp4-264773_1280x720.mp4

^ @ ~43 seconds in, someone we know thinks highly of KAT too (fully aware he does not call KAT HOF or mention anything like that BUT this guy DOES recognize this is no ordinary rook).

Speaking of Dame, he's great & I/we love him & he'll cont. to improve but by no means am I saying KAT this yr. or Dame last yr. should b HOF; I certainly hope Dame can b a HOF 1 day, THAT'd b awesome! I wouldn't b surprised if Dame became a HOF but w/ Dame it's too hard to tell yet; certainly understand how u/1 could use that same logic for KAT BUT... KAT is not ur garden variety big that's playing well, he has the tangibles AND intangibles already to b a franchise changer & has the chops for winning basketball.

ps KAT WILL improve/does need to improve to get to HOF or even hopeful but I think he's more than likely to get there

 

Junk Stat-

Any stat that is repackaged and bundled with "proprietary" data- whether it be algorithms, weights, processes, etc., then sold without having it peer reviewed or verified by any sort of independent and objective person(s). Not to mention there needs to be adjustment based on players by position, which itself has to be adjusted.

Here's a couple examples of why you shouldn't be using DRPM- particularly in season and not position adjusted.

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2014/4/8/5594238/problem-with-real-plus-minus
http://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2014/4/9/5591108/jae-crowder-problem-espn-real-plus-minus-rpm
https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/


But remember, my posts are insufferable and I don't know what I'm doing ;-)

 

I could spend some serious time and analyze every single one of CJs shots and probably eliminate the FB baskets and do them separately. But that's a month long type deal... I may do something like that during the summer. I'll have a baseline to go off of for 2016 then...

 

I always thought the shot clock threw off a lot of stats when it comes to shooting percentage, etc...there are plenty of hot potato shots and guys who have the ball a lot, get to chuck up the prayers...this is to me a random, uncertain element that shooting percentages don't really reflect, at least in most stat breakdowns...how many of CJs shots are with 1 second on the clock as opposed to someone who just doesn' t handle the ball under pressure that much

 

follow up to the previous post I made...I do enjoy you stat guys doing all this meticulous work so I don't have to

 

CJ's transition numbers on the top level are pretty decent at first look ( raw totals) but his PPP and score freq are not good at all, yet is eFG% is up- part of that is his ability to hit the trans 3 as you stated. Really the Blazers don't have anyone that stands out that great in transition- CJ, Dame, and Aminu are all below average for the most part. Crabbe is meh, but probably one of the more reliable guys in the open court.


I was more leaning towards a total breakdown of his shots and isolating half court finishing to open court finishing. But I get what you're talking about.

 

I can pull this numbers for any shots and any player over the last 3-4 years. Databases are getting bigger by the day, and those are things that I look at to differentiate.

For example, I noted on Twitter the other day how often CJ shoots after holding the ball for more than 6+secs.



Most people kind of "meh" on stuff like that- but when you take it all into account, like the fact that CJ has one of the worst FG% (among qualified players) when a defender is within 2ft, that matters. It explains why CJ has a tight handle, and why he has so many moves to create space- b/c the pressure appears to bother him quite a bit.

 

Given how short CJ has been all his life compared to other basketball players, it's obvious why he has moves to get space between him and his defender.

 

The reason I asked was because I was wondering about Zebo. He always seems to be near the top of the league with getting his shot blocked. Yet he is relentless and eventually he scores. I am really not trying to make a point here I was just wondering how it effected his stats. Because there are very few better at finishing at the rim.

Really this is all a little premature IMO because CJ is still young when it comes to being the #1 option. (in the NBA.) Which he is when Dame is on the bench. Whenever you are "the guy" who has the ball in his hands when the shot clock is winding down.... your stats will suffer a little. You will incur more forced shots as a result of it. And he probably does get caught in no mans land too often.

All I know is when he drives to the basket in traffic (right or left side) and kisses it off the glass.....it s often a thing of beauty. So regardless of whether or not his percentage at the rim are as good as they should be, "my gut" tells me he will be just fine at it in the near future.

 

Better question, why is he holding the ball for 6+ seconds? How does Dame compare?

And holy crap..... Reggie Jackson is a mega chucker.

 

In Z-Bo's case (and maybe CJ's too), he was undersized for a power forward (mayyyyyybe 6'9"), and had a small vertical leap, so he'd get blocked a lot. CJ is short for a SG, and not known as a leaper, so he might get his shot blocked a lot because of that too. Z-Bo was mean and tenacious, and got rebounds through guile and cunning and instinctive timing that's probably in an advanced stat somewhere.

 

(I assume dribbling = holding in this case) CJ does dominate the ball a lot; he spends a lot of time with Dame as a bailout playmaker when the normal motion offense breaks down, or with the bench where the offense is "confuse the defense with a series of moves, then see if anyone is open" because the bench unit isn't really suited for the same offense as the starters. CJ running Dame's spot alone with the starters showed us he can run that offense just fine; he's just not in a position to do so in the bulk of his minutes.

 

Just listened to Bill Simmons latest podcast. He brought up a three-way trade between the Clippers, Cavs and Blazers. Love to the Clips, CJ (and another undisclosed player) to the Cavs (or the Clips?) and Griffin to the Blazers . . . Gotta say, that'd be A-OK with me.

 

Simmons would never have brought up that trade before Blake punched out some random staffer.