Official HCP's Win Total Prediction Goes Boom Thread

I don't fault Neil for signing two solid role players to bargain contracts the year before the cap goes up. Having a bench makes the difference between being a legit contender and being a perennial 7th or 8th seed.

The thing is, with Dame/CJ I don't think we were going to get in the bottom 4 of the league. There's just no competing with the Sixers, Lakers, Wolves, and Nets. They've got tanking down to a science. We needed to be significantly worse than we are, and that wasn't going to happen with the core that was in place. So unless Neil did a tear down and traded CJ from the start, I don't think Simmons was in the cards for us.

 

You're probably right, but the game theorist in me, would have been much happier with a 10% chance at a top 3 pick, versus a 99% chance of playing free agency musical chairs this summer and being one of the teams left standing around looking stupid, when the music stops.

 

I understand the logic but given that, I'm starting to think that if we even stood pat with the current development...we're not going to look stupid at all..now the Lakers and Sixers...they're looking stupid and for some strange reason..nobody want to be a Laker these days...the times are a changin'

 

Can you imagine if Neil did not sign Aminu, or Davis and got rid of Henderson. Our total Salary would have been about 40 million less than the next closet team. (Utah)

 

I want to be perfectly clear. I think this team is on a path of respectability - a plug and play team that can get you 45 wins a year in a couple of years if Vonleh develops into a 15/10 guy and a few other guys mature into veterans (Crabbe, CJ, Plumlee, etc.).

There's nothing wrong with that, but that doesn't make Portland a free agent destination and makes me worry that we're going to turn into a treadmill team that never has a chance to sniff a championship. Maybe there's a trade lurking out there that pushes us over the top, but with the way elite players are forcing their way to preferred destinations and even taking shorter deals to retain leverage, it feels like a longshot.

 

It is a long shot...to contend we need probably one more needle mover minimum but we've got assets and cap space to entice an allstar on an underachieving team....I keep coming back to Indiana...they are middle of the pack and not a powerhouse anymore..You add a Paul George to this roster and we're having a different conversation. I think guys around the league are starting to see that Portland is a place where you can enjoy the game. Stotts is a player's coach..no disgruntled locker room bullshit...the Bulls are dysfunctional...according to Pau...horrible locker room. We had that same problem in the lock out season. It's the culture here that's the selling point more than the trimmings of a New York or Chicago gig. Being in New York isn't getting a guy like Melo closer to a ring.

 

Ah, I see the problem. I don't think most elite players view the NBA quite like this. Certainly they want a chance to compete for a title and nobody likes playing in a dysfunctional environment, but the reality is that the truly elite level players are brands and businesses unto themselves. A lot of these guys have entourages, and agents that push and pull them in a dozen different directions that have nothing to do with basketball. I think you are under a mistaken impression about the priorities that most of these guys have. Maybe that's overly pessimistic, but I think history is on my side.

 

I think Dame alone has proven you can be a very visible NBA star and have major endorsements with nationwide coverage and play for Portland. Dame is on just about every lead in promo for the NBA....much more than Paul George or Jimmy Butler. Working with a marketing mind like Lillard can't hurt your exposure

 

And we drafted him. Convincing an elite guy to come here this summer when there are 25 other teams flush with cap-room doesn't seem like such a good bet.

 

The fact that we drafted a small school guy under the radar says Olshey has a few tricks up his sleeve...the Clippers really sucked and somehow he pried Chris Paul from New Orleans...stranger things have happened. Cap space or not...some of those big market, underachieving franchises are going to rebuild. I think this offseason is a buyers market for Portland...speaking of cap space...we rule that list by a long stretch.

 

A buyers' market is one in which there are few buyers and many sellers. In this instance the "sellers" are the players offering their services. So tons of teams with money to burn and only a handful of players worth spending it on is the opposite of what you are suggesting.

 

So funny you are right with the Nets.... never seen a team tank without a draft pick before.

 

You're right, up to a point on how some some players are self absorbed and have different priorities. It's a sad fact of life. But our current roster has none of those individuals and I think if NO and Stotts have their way, that is how it's going to stay. And if one of those types of players slips through the cracks and winds up on the Blazers, they won't last long. Even though the Jail Blazers almost made it to the finals, that team left a foul taste in my mouth. I'd rather lose with dignity and class than win with a bunch of knuckleheaded thugs. It reflects poorly on my hometown. And somehow, I don't think current Blazer management would be interested in bringing in self absorbed superstars (think LeBron, Harden, etc) who would likely try to call the shots and steer the team in the direction they want to go. With the way our team is progressing, along with the culture they are creating, I honestly don't think we'll have a problem attracting the "right kind" of free agents if we continue to stay the current course.

 

Its extremely rare to have a contending team that wins a championship. 97% of teams lose every year, and many of the winners are recent repeat champs. The Warriors had to wait 40 years just to get past the second round. All team building strategies are unlikely to result in a championship.

I hope like all Blazer fans the team can contend one day but it shouldn't be an all or nothing Florida Marlins type of effort. I appreciate having a fun team to root for in seasons like this even if I know we won't win the title.

There is also a horrific track record of lottery teams with top 3 picks winning titles. The Spurs are the only franchise to do it since Jordan. So I also just don't understand this belief that tanking for top picks is some sort of reliable blueprint.

 

yeah, but a whole lot of those teams have bad GMs...notice the revolving door of coaching positions..players will have some say in where they want to go and Golden State and San Antonio can only sign so many guys...money or not.

 

I hear ya brother. In a perfect world, we maybe develop slightly slower and get that high lottery pick, but that's just not how it's playing out.

 

My point using that analogy was more about being able to overpay bidding for a Paul George or Jimmy Butler..cap goes up but fact is we still have the most scratch in the league to deal out..to me, that's a distinct advantage

 

But it's not like you can offer as much as you want..... there's a ceiling, and most of the teams can hit that ceiling. It's not like we can offer more than anyone else.

 

Yeah and Lillard's extension will kick in; CJ will be eligible for an extension that will probably be as much as Lillards. Plumlee will be eligible for an extension. Crabbe will be a restricted free agent. Perhaps we pay to keep Gerald, Harkless, or Meyers who will all be free agents. Yes we will still have some cap space but when you start adding it up not to mention max contracts being even higher we don't have as much as it first appears.

Dame, Aminu, Davis and Vonleh are the only players with more than a full season left here. Its great the team has developed so well but the downside is all their improvements will raise the cost to keep them.

I suppose Meyers is the only player who will be cheaper than expected to keep; if we even want to keep him.

 

And what does that have to do with the Blazers gaining leverage over elite free agents?