Exclusive Why the Blazers make a Trade (Column)

Every GM's cell phone is being pushed to it's limits for the next 3 days as it's owner scours the bushes looking for a trade to provide immediate help, cap flexibility, future assets or combination of any of those three. So here is a look at what Neil Olshey might be dealing with...

1. How serious is this run despite what might happen in the Playoffs?
This team has completely over performed expectations. When that happened in the past, Neil chose not to do anything and just let it ride out and the team ended on a 13 game losing streak after battling for the #8 playoff seed for a good portion of the season. Does this team have a better run in them and do you 'give to get' in a year that the top 3 teams in the West may all have 60+ wins?

2. Let it ride out....and reward the team financially
Because the Blazers are so far under the cap, if they don't make any moves, the players will divide up the difference between the current team salary and the minimum required salary mandated by the CBA. This team has battled hard and come together as a group. Is it worth pulling money off the table from them to take on something like David Lee's salary just to get a poor future Draft pick? I would submit the good will earned from giving the players money outweighs the $3Million it might take to buy a pick in the future. Now if you were to really get something worthwhile, that is a different story.

3. How long till the Blazers get a return on a player who is leaving?
Oden, Roy, Aldridge, Lopez, Matthews, Afflalo, Freeland, Wright....the list is endless of Blazer players who have left for absolutely nothing but freed up cap space. Does Neil add Kaman and Henderson to that list this summer in a year that most teams will have a ton of Cap Space thereby negating much of its value to the Blazers?

4. How much more potential do players like CJ, Crabbe and Meyers have?
CJ has because what many thought he could be but just couldn't get the minutes due to Matthews and injuries. Crabbe has blossomed into a solid bench contributor who can score and play defense. Meyers has.....well, looked much better when he plays Center and not so good when he plays the stretch '4'. Will these players continue to get better or are they near their production peak and should be moved while their value is at it's highest and before they demand much more expensive deals?

5. Is there something better?
No fan likes to give up on their own player especially when they are showing signs of improvement. They are only willing to discuss trading players that haven't done much but by consequence then have little trade value. What is in Neil's bag of analytics, research and gut instinct makes him feel like he could move a piece that has shown potential but get something back that will be even better for the team in the long run? That is perhaps the most difficult of all....moving an asset that is good or getting better for a bit of an unknown that you believe could be even better. Risk/Reward is not for the faint of heart.

Some or all of these things are what GM's around the league will ponder over the next few days but these particular issues are what Neil and the Blazer management staff will mull over in the next few days.

Let the Rumors fly.

 

Olshey is no dummy; his concern is the 2018-19 WCFs. Any move he makes will reflect this. If he thinks a player or combo of players is no better than 41-41, he'll try to upgrade now.

Here's an exercise: imagine it's 2019, game 7 of the WCF against Golden State. Who on this team do you see balling the fuck out of their minds to win it for us? Keep only those players, and look to acquire enough that you have eight of those guys.

 

I think Hendo gets traded. His value is up, and there's a strong likelihood that he isn't re-signed this summer, so we would be losing half of our haul for Batum with nothing to show for it.

 

Also, never resign a 29 year old who has a game dependent on athleticism. So he was probably gone anyway.

 

In response to item #4 - I think both CJ and Crabbe are near their ceilings. Meyers might be, too, but he's the only one of those three that has room for considerable growth. CJ and Crabbe will get incrementally better, but I don't believe either has a second jump in them.

 

Exactly. Guys like iggy and carter have carved out decent roles when the athleticism left.

 

Yeah, but he's in this weird no man's land where he totally could start for fifteen teams but won't with ours; he won't even be third in a three guard rotation with us unless we move Aminu to start Crabbe at SF...

 

If CJ has made his big jump, he's our third guy; we would need a second star at that point. If you can get a SF/PF star AND keep CJ, you've just given the team a huge boost.

 

But both made the shift AFTER their big 28yo pay days. I don't know if Hendo wants to re-sign with us in his prime to be our old guy badass. If he does and promises to resign from its us because we are so cool, AWESOME. I'm just unsure if he wants that, or is playing for that opportunity now.

 

Yeah, I think we still need our #2 (or #1) guy. I really want that guy to be a SF, but could also be talked into C. PFs - not so much. I want a jack-of-all-trades PF. If it's a star PF that has a well rounded game (screens, rebounding, help defense, passing) then fine, but typically stars don't do the little things, and PFs NEED to do the little things. Basically, if there were a prime Pau or Duncan out there those would be the only star PFs I'd want. So: Davis?

 

That would be great but New Orleans starting price would be Lillard+.. I doubt many Blazer fans would be on board.

 

At this point I have no idea who is actually available and who is just a rumor.

 

Yeah - I was just pointing out there there are literally no star PF options that are both worth it and reasonable.
I suppose I could also add Griffin as another star option - but what we'd have to give up for him is also unreasonable.
Those are the only do-everything star PFs that I'd even consider, but both would cost too much (players, not money).

 

Let's be real clear here, Henderson is nowhere near the level of Player that Iggy or Vince were before settling into bench roles.

 

Whaaaaaaaaat? How DARE you!

 

Shorts?

Have you heard anything?

 

Completely disagree. While their actual set of skills may not increase, their reading of game situations definitely will. Look at Lillard. You can't really pinpoint any real improvement in his skill set, but he's gotten better every year and I believe it's through improvement in his ability to read the game. Knowing when and how to attack. Knowing when to create for others, etc. That comfort is the second jump. Remember, this is the first year CJ and Crabbe have gotten any significant minutes/roles. There will be a second jump for both. At least that's what I believe.

 

Sadly, nothing of 'Shorts' worthiness yet. All very low-level discussions from anything I've heard and it's basically the same as everything else that's out there at this point. Portland as a facilitator or moving Kaman/Henderson for a low Draft pick. The 4 year wait for the needle-mover continues.

I did hear one interesting thing involving Meyers but have nothing to back it up as a legit rumor and the details were murky at best.