Kevin Pelton: Blazers now favored over Clippers without Chris Paul?

On the other hand, sometimes the supporting crew catches fire when their star goes down. And we've seen the Blazers crap their pants in situations like this too. I just think the Paul injure raised our chances to win game 6 from like 10% to 50%. Still not comfortable though.

 

I assume you meant Game 5? I think the Blazers' chances in Game 6 are considerably better than 50%.

 

Under most circumstances I would agree with you, but the way this Clippers team is built I have a hard time seeing it. The only way I could see it is if Paul Pierce somehow really rally's everyone to gether, but I don't see that kind of makeup in the guys on this Clippers team.

 

Favorites or underdogs, Chris Paul or no Chris Paul, we still need to play the games and this is still the youngest, least experienced team in the playoffs. For a team this young, even without the injuries to their opponents, there is usually an emotional let down after winning two games to even the series. The reasons they won at home had nothing to do with Chris Paul's injury. It was due to playing with a lot more energy and confidence in front of a very loud, very supportive home crowd, on a court and in an environment where they are most comfortable.

Throw in the injury to Paul and I think this team needs to be VERY careful of a huge let down in Game 5. Doc Rivers (aka Coach Obvious) was right: we won 2 at home and they won 2 at home. That's the way a 4-5 matchup should play out. Nothing surprising there. The Clippers STILL have HCA and we NEED to win on their floor to take the series. Game 5 on Wednesday is critical. There is still a lot of talent and a lot of experience on that team. If we play like we did in Games 1 and 2, we will lose, even if they don't have Chris Paul.

We are 0-4 in games in LA this season, with an average margin of defeat of 14.5 points. During Damian Lillard's 4-year NBA career, the Blazers are 1-8 in games played against the Clippers in LA. 5 of those 8 losses have been by 13, or more, points. The Blazers have lost 9 straight playoff games in Los Angeles going back to Game 7 of the 2000 Conference Finals against the Lakers. The last time the Blazers won a playoff game in Los Angeles, all five current starters were in elementary school and Noah Vonleh was in preschool. Hell, Chris Kaman was still in high school. Yeah, it's been that long. Other than the last two, that doesn't have anything to do with the current roster, but it's been a LONG time. It's not an easy place to win, especially in the post season.

So, they cannot let up. Not because they have clawed back and made it a series. Not because Chris Paul is out. Not for any reason at all. They need to play with the same intensity, the same focus, the same effort, the same confidence and most of all, they same sense of urgency as they did in Games 3 and 4. Let Game 5 slip away and we are faced with needing to win Game 7 on the road to advance. That's never an easy task, not even for a veteran team. For a team this young, it's daunting. They NEED to take Game 5 in LA on Wednesday and set up the possibility of winning the series at home in Game 6 on Friday.

BNM

 

Our best shot to advance is to end this in 6. [duh]

 

A better fan would say without Lillard Portland would still be the favorite.

 

So who plays PG for the Clippers now? Prigioni is the only other listed PG on their roster, that leaves....

Reddick?
Crawford?
Rivers?
Wilcox?
Prigioni?

 

It'll be Rivers.

 

And as he's no Chis Paul, he has had a strong series.

 

Huh?

 

They are putting the Clippers as 2 point favorites for the game tomorrow.

 

PER = 8.9 == Strong Series????

Did you watch the game last night? Rivers was 1-7 from the field and 0-3 from 3-point range.

Doc was right, there isn't anyone in the league that can replace Chris Paul, certainly not his son. Nepotism will only get you so far in life.

BNM

 

Sounds about right.

 

It was 4 points this morning. People are betting the shit out of that.

 

This is all correct, and I have loved to hate on Mini Rivers (can we call him Creek, or Stream or something), but his defense has been surprisingly good in this series. Ugh. I hate having to say that.

 

It's funny because it's true.

 

The problem with starting Rivers at the point is the lack of distribution. He's not really very good at running an offense and creating shots for his teammates. His AST% for this series is 10.9, and that's not a small sample size aberration. For the regular season, his AST% was 10.6. Just to put that in perspective, Meyers Leonard also had an AST% of 10.6 and two guys the Clippers gave away, Lance Stevenson and Josh Smith (yes, THAT Josh Smith) were at AST% = 13.1 and 14.3.

This is where the potential loss of Blake Griffin has a bigger than expected impact. Yes, if they lose Blake, they lose his scoring and rebounding, but they also lose his underrated passing ability. His AST% of 27.3 was the second highest on the team, by a wide margin, during the regular season. With Paul out, they lose the best distributor in the league. If they also lose Blake, they really don't have anyone else that can create for others. Prigioni can run an offense, but at almost 39-years old, that's pretty much all he can do. He's basically an older, slower Steve Blake with a cute accent and no 3-point shot.

BNM

 

Aren't Blake's numbers skewed though since he missed a good portion of the season?

 

Not really. He played in 35 games, which is a fairly significant sample size and he also had a AST% of 26.2 in 67 games last season. He doesn't just score in their offense, he's their secondary distributor.

BNM

 

It is, but it's hard to compare stats to someone who played 60+ games to someone who played less than half a season... at least, to take them at face value..