http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-donald-trump-have-a-ceiling/ harry: I’m still selling this, but I’d have to be the dumbest or most stubborn person alive to think his chances haven’t risen SIGNIFICANTLY. natesilver: I’m holding. Putting Trump’s chances at somewhere around 45 percent to 50 percent seems reasonable (ton win the nomination). There are reasons to be skeptical of how high Trump’s ceiling is. That’s been a big part of the reason for our skepticism about Trump from the beginning, really. But he’s ahead in basically every poll in basically every state. Ordinarily, you’d expect a candidate like that to be priced quite a bit higher than 45 percent to 50 percent, so there’s already a pretty steep discount built in.
They seemed to mean a lot to you when you were updating them daily during the brief period that Trump was catching up.
That's only popularity. Constantly reporting the good polls for Hiliar and not reporting the good ones for Trump does what, exactly? It's not "nothing" - I'm sure you agree. It does influence voters (maybe Hiliar's won't bother to vote, she's got it in the bag, same for Trump - no point). The average voter may not make the distinction about the state polls/Electoral College and the popularity polls.
He does. Until Trump blew away Cruz in New York and Republicans began to coalesce around him, it was far from certain Trump was going to win the nomination. In fact, after he lost Wisconsin decisively, it was probably below a 50% chance. He was always (after he won his initial primaries) likely to win a plurality, but not a majority--and without a majority, he was an underdog in a contested convention.
It's simply your bias that causes you to perceive that only pro-Clinton polls are reported. I've seen lots of "new poll finds Clinton and Trump tied" and "Trump up 2 in Ohio" articles.
There's a pretty big difference--as I said, he was always very likely (based on the polls) to win a plurality. Guess what? In the general election, a plurality wins. There is no contested convention at the end where if you don't win on the first ballot, your electoral college delegates can defect. If the nomination worked the same way, Trump would have been a crushing favorite pretty much the entire way. So yes, with Clinton in that spot now, it does make a good parallel. She is a crushing favorite right now, just as Trump would have been if the primary season worked like a general election. Of course, something could always shake up the race. Reagan came from way behind, Bush the Elder came from way behind, etc. That's why Trump has a 20% chance. 20% chances sometimes come though...1 in 5 times. It's something to give you a glimmer of hope, at least.
Who, exactly, is way behind? All those pesky grey colored states aren't in the bag for either candidate. The PA polls we already discussed.
GOP Still Not United Behind Trump -- that's the graphic at the bottom of CNN right now. The Democrats are still not united behind Hiliar. Where's Bernie's endorsement? But they're not putting that on a banner across the screen.
I am seeing polls barely within the margin of error, two candidates who are unpopular, and one that has been consistently underestimated all along. Including by your boy Silver.
Polls must be horribly skewed, then. There was a poll with Clinton up 21 points in NJ just the other day. barfo
No doubt. I got called last week, Do you support that loud mouth Trump? You know he is a racist! Not many people are willing to say, Fucking A!
