I can't tell if you're being sarcastic about this... it seems like a subtle shot because I have an educated belief that this storm will be horrible. Models keep trending South and West, and support stronger ridging to the north. Maybe devastation is more common to talk for people than about that the meteorological patterns that determine if that devastation occurs, I'm different. Do you truly not think this will hit? Or is it just your way of poking fun?
I do not think it will hit because if the high fronts pushing it east, and I'm poking fun. And I just cant deal with another one. They suck. They are terrifying, nerve racking, costly. So part of me too, just doesn't wanna talk about it. BUT, our meteorologists here think there is a good chance it won't hit the US. That can obviously change. The track for Harvey reentering the gulf and coming back through Houston changed daily
I understand what you're saying. It would definitely suck. But I gotta face the present reality. Every weather/hurricane model is forecasting an east coast landfall. There is a trough, but it's going to left to the north, allowing the Bermuda High to build more westward (underneath it), and delay Irmas northward turn. Harvey was a combination of so many bad things other than it's show track. It was unexpected, rapidly intensified right before landfall, and made landfall south of a major city. Irma should have none of those, so hopefully nobody is caught off guard and out impacts a remote place. It just has a 500 mile wide target to hit, while Harvey's forecasting differences were a 50 mile different. Just have to focus on bringing relief to Texas 1st. Hopefully improve that situation as quickly as possible in order to be ready for anything that could come from this. But thank god these storms didn't happen at the same time.
In case you're interested, this is the site I use to track: www.wunderground.com/tropical The articles have huge comment sections that I believe is very helpful to anyone in the potential path of a hurricane. I find it very insightful.
Uh oh, not good. This thing is definitely going to hit the U.S. The Bermuda High is building stronger than anyone could've predicted. Anyone who says it'll likely go out to sea is lying.
I don't know if it's a hobby or a job for you, but our meteorologists still think the high pressure system will push this out to the Atlantic, or has a good chance to anyway. Edit: it shifted south. Yes, it will hit the US. Selfishly, this thing needs to stay away from Texas
It's a hobby, but I'm getting my info straight from the NHC. I wouldn't trust local meteorology on the matter, that's why I posted that link. Especially local meteorology in a place that just got rocked by one. It's not selfish that you don't want it to go to Texas. Two major hurricane hitting there in less than two weeks would compound devastation exponentially. The only problem is it could hit anywhere in Florida. Evacuations would be extremely tough already due to the shape of the state, but theyll probably have no idea where it will hit until a couple days before.
Our meteorologists get their info straight from the NHC also. I trust them they do tbis everyday from June through November
So glad I don't live on the gulf or the east coast. That said, the big one is going to happen here sooner or later.
I don't understand what you mean. So far, I've been right about everything. Irma moved out of the dry air and toward warmer SSTs, and strengthened, as I predicted. She's now a Cat 4. There will be almost certainly a US landfall, which I've been saying the whole time. Thing is, with the model runs and way the ridge is setting up, this was obvious a couple days ago, and wasn't that hard to predict. This is what made it weird for me, that these meteorologists kept saying it was likely to go out to sea. I trust that they know what they're talking about and could be good at their job, they've just been off on this whole thing.
Three scenarios right now: (For anyone interested) #1. Furthest SW Track - Would take the storm over P.R., D.R., Haiti, and Cuba in order. This would be devastating but would likely weaken the storm to a category 1 hurricane. Problem is, if it takes this track it'll end up to the west of Florida when it turns due north, and will have some time to restrengthen before a potentially catastrophic landfall in Tampa or the panhandle. #2. Middle Track - Would take the storm just north of the islands, still bringing heavy impacts to the islands but also being offshore, which would allow it to maintain or strengthen intensity. This is the current forecast. Would then hit turn north at the southern tip of Florida, potentially hitting Miami as a Cat 5. #3. Eastern Track - Would be further north of the islands, turning north sooner, ending up in the Georgia/Carolina coast area.
Even if #1 occurs, it's possible the storm could stay north of the islands. The red track would be an absolute worst case scenario. Stays north of the big islands, bringing heavy impacts. Would hit the Turks and southern Bahamas directly, then would basically make skirt the entire Miami coastline as potentially a Cat 4/5, then would get away from the coast (possibly not weakening at all), then would make landfall in the Daytona Beach/Jacksonville area.
In terms of exact locality, yes. In terms of general locality, it depends on the situation. If the models show a building ridge to the north and a lifting trough, it should end up staying west/northwestward getting it close enough to the coast by day 5 that any potential northward turn still has it making landfall by day 10, and if it doesn't turn north, then Florida gets messed up. That's the best I can explain it. The US is big, so the location of the storm and the weather patterns at day 5 influence what happens afterwards.
