Trade Deadline Predictions

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Scalma, Jan 8, 2018.

  1. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Are we going to be a buyer or seller?
     
  2. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Observer.
     
  3. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Both?
     
  4. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    No way. We are primed to make a move. Just depends if we try to look for cap flexibility or get pieces to get a better playoff seed
     
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  5. dviss1

    dviss1 Emcee Referee

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    Say what you want because I don't really GAF, but I answered a question that was in the thread. I give long answers sometimes. :dunno:
     
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  6. dviss1

    dviss1 Emcee Referee

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    Also, posting something contrary to the OP isn't derailing the thread but go ahead... I post WTF I want within forum rules. Sooooo balls...
     
  7. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    Ideally, both. A trade that gets us under the tax threshold, but still nets us
    Fournier, or some similar player. However, it's not likely to happen.

    Probably sellers. We have some ending contracts which
    can hopefully be used to get us under the tax.
     
  8. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    There’s also the possibility of trading a contract to get under the tax (ie Davis) while also getting a talent back that could contribute in the same deal.

    So something like Davis for Hezonja
     
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  9. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    We tried to be a seller last year with the Plums deal, but that turned out to be both.
     
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  10. JDC

    JDC Well-Known Member

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    I don't expect much.

    We all know Dame and CJ aren't getting moved and the rest of our players contracted past this year are clear net negatives right now on their current deals minus Aminu. And although they've played well Connaughton, Napier and Davis are expirings and will only fetch good 2nd's at best and they're bird rights are worth more to us than that.

    Playoffs are also shaky right now and this draft is deep enough at the top that I don't see them moving a potential lottery pick in a deadline deal. This also makes it very unlikely we see ET moved. Maybe if SAC would be willing to do a Turner+19' LAL 2nd for Koufos+Temple type deal, but I doubt it.

    As far as Mirotic goes, I wouldn't give up a first for him. Only 1 year left on his contract so you're committing to re-signing him after next year and I'm not sure I'd be ready to do that when we still have a decision to make on Nurk/still evaluating Zach's long-term fit.

    I dont' think Utah is going to want to either, but still think that they'll be able to put together a better offer than us without including one. Hood and Exum are more appealing than anything we have to offer.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2018
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  11. BigGameDamian

    BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

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  12. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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  13. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Don't see why ORL would want Davis with the situation they're in. That would be essentially 0 return for them.

    Since I believe BOS wants Davis, lets say for a 2nd round pick since your so stingent on it, maybe we could do this:
    BOS Gets: Davis
    POR Gets: Herzonja
    ORL Gets: '19 MIN/LAL 2nd (POR), '20 BOS 2nd

    Two 2nds for Herzonja is probably the best they could get. One early 2nd, one late 2nd. We give up a 2nd for Herzonja, Boston gets Davis with their injury exception for (almost) free.

    Orlando also seems like a team that would take a chance on Meyers for basically free. Vucevic won't be there in a couple years (and there's a decent change he gets traded at the deadline) and the only other C they have is Biyombo. So maybe you could work out something like this and add the italicized players.
    BOS Gets: Davis
    POR Gets: Herzonja, Afflalo, Speights
    ORL Gets: Leonard, Layman, '19 MIN/LAL 2nd (POR), '20 BOS 2nd

    We would save $10.7M this year, and if we brought back Herzonja for... say... $5M a year, we'd save $6.5M next year.
     
  14. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    I hate "news" articles like this. How are we going to get him? Press a button, and he shows up for nothing? The site doesn't say. BGD is just stirring
    the pot, like he often does. For free? Sure, "no shit."

    How about this:
    Would you give up 2 1sts + Davis (who's expiring)?
    Would you give up 1 1st + Davis?
    Would you give up 1 1st + any combination of non-big3, nonrookie players?
    If you would give up a 1st, would you insist that they take $4 mil more to get us under the tax?
    Would Orlando accept any of this?
     
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  15. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    This is how I'm approaching the trade deadline:

    --We need to explore trades that accomplish at least two of the following four things our big 3 or Collins in any of them. Any one of them should make for a successful trade, but accomplishing two of these things makes for a great trade. Accomplishing 3 of the 4 things could make any player (except for Dame) available. (ex. Trading CJ for Jabari Parker and a 1st isn't going to make us better in the future

    For the first two, they're successful if we don't trade Aminu or a 1st round pick:
    1.) Add mid-late 1st round picks
    2.) Adds low risk/moderate reward players
    The following could be successful with the inclusion of Aminu and/or a 1st depending on the trade
    3.) Adds players that make us significantly better now or in the future
    4.) Gets us under the tax/sheds future bad contracts (ex. trading CJs contract isn't a good thing, but trading ET's would be)
    *This doesn't include unique scenarios such as acquiring a superstar or Top 8 Draft Pick*

    -This would accomplish #2 and #4.
    -#3 would include someone like Blake Griffin or Avery Bradley (now), or Julius Randle or Jabari Parker (future)
    -#1 could be accomplished by taking on more salary (via TPE) or bad contracts (Joakim Noah with NYKs 1st...?) because we're already in a poor position cap wise and it would add assets without sacrificing flexibility (since we have none as it is).

    Any move that doesn't accomplish any of these things is a lateral move at best.
     
  16. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    If we had a defender at the SG/SF position (instead of CJ) then Fournier would be a good fit as a starter. As it is, he'd be best as a 6th man that would play ~27-30min a game.
     
  17. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    Forget #1, it's not happening
    Neil will claim #2 or #3, regardless of who we get.
    Hoping for #3, but don't think it'll happen.
    We'll be lucky to just get #4.
     
  18. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Davis doesn't match salary, so we'd have to send out Meyers or someone as well.

    But a 1st for Fournier? Only if it's around 15. I don't know if that's worth it because Fournier doesn't make us significantly better. We need to get significantly better and a pick around 15 has a very small chance at accomplishing that, while Fournier is what he is, and doesn't have the potential to accomplish that (somewhat better is a different story).

    The best route may be to try to trade Napier for a mid-1st, then package that 1st, our 1st, and bad contracts (Meyers and Turner?), and try to land Fournier and Simmons. If we could, I'd rather trade worst out of the two firsts we'd have after the Napier trade, Vonleh, and the 2019 MIN/LAL 2nd instead of both firsts. They need young big man depth and I'd rather not pay Vonleh.

    Orlando seems like the type of team willing to try out Meyers, especially since Vucevic is likely gone soon. They aren't a free agent destination and have a lot of money tied up in the next couple years anyway (Gordon will be making $20M+ next year, Ross has 2 years, $10M per year, Biyombo has 3 years, $17M per year. That's apx. $50M combined for only Gordon, Biyombo, and Ross.

    So adding a couple bad, 3 year contracts (one of which is a gamble that might pay off in Meyers) is smart, as they would run out at the same time as Biyombo's contract and would allow them to add two 1st round picks in a deep draft and potentially have a decent young team in 3 years when they could have money to put into the FA market.

    For us, I'm not sure how much better we get, but we do get better. We get under the tax as well, and I like this rotation:
    Lillard (36) / McCollum (12)
    McCollum (24) / Fournier (24)
    Simmons (30) / Fournier (6) / Turner (12)
    Aminu (30) / Collins (18)
    Nurkic (30) / Davis (18)
     
  19. BigGameDamian

    BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

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    I'm on board with getting Blake Griffin!
     
  20. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    #1 isn't happening? Napier and Aminu could definitely fetch 1sts for them alone. I've argued that Davis can fetch a 1st from Boston, due to how late their 1st is, their 3 other 1sts in the next two years and their already vast stable of young projects which makes that 1st less valued by them, their team needs, their injury exception, and their win-now state. We could also take on a contract like Joakim Noah's for Davis and Harkless and potentially get a 1st back due to how bad that contract is (we could even use the TPE for Lance Thomas to help them even more, or we could use the TPE to take on a bad contract under $13M from any other team for a 1st). We have a likely early 2nd in 2019 from (likely) LAL, which we could use as an extra incentive in such deals.

    We could easily get another 1st round pick.
     

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