I would much prefer to be 6th seed than 5th seed. If we finish 6th, we most likely play Spurs in the first round which is difficult but possible if Leonard is out, and then the winner of Houston against whoever ends up 7th - which is still much easier than playing Warriors. Warriors would likely face Timberwolves or Thunder in the second round then which could be slightly tough for them. They will progress but they might lose a game or two.
After last night's action: ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 89.2% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 6th seed. FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 86% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 46-36, 6th seed. Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 91.8% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44.5-37.5, 6th seed. BNM
Surprising to me that there's that big of separation predicted between the 3, 4, 5 spots (all 49-50 wins) and the #6 spot (44-46 wins). Currently Portland sits 2 games out of the 4th spot.
Our schedule is about to get really tough. We needed to feast on an easy Nov/Dec but we blew games to teams like BK/SAC/ATL. And not to mention the number of games we've lost to better teams missing their best players. On the other side, what games have we won that we should have probably lost? @ OKC without Dame is prolly the only one I can count. We'd be at 30-20 and in the fourth seed if things went to plan.
Right now, we're winning the games the simulations expect us to win. So, we're not gaining much ground on the teams ahead of us in the projections. Start winning the games the simulations expect us to lose and we'll start gaining on OKC and MIN. If we beat CHI at home tonight, don't expect much movement. Beat TOR and/or BOS on the road, watch what happens then! Same thing in reverse: if MIN and OKC start losing games they should win, we will gain ground on them both in the standings and in the projections. As long as the actual results closely track the predicted results, there won't be much change to the trajectory. Start beating some of the better teams and the trajectory will change. BNM
Let's see what will happen in February. I mean for the comparation with Spurs. They have almost same difficult fixtures as well (Warriors, Rockets, Cavaliers, Nuggets x2,) maybe the difference could be lower for at least one win. We need to break somewhere especcialy in firts three matches. Tor, Bos, Det. 2-1 in our favour and we can have very realistic hope to catch them ( i assume they will lost vs above mentioned teams, and at least once vs Nuggets). But let's see...i cant wait for these matches.
Spurs next 10 games: Maybe 3, possibly 4 losses in there? Going to be tough to catch them but that's what I hope they are shooting for. ROCKETS JAZZ @Suns @Warriors @Jazz @nuggets @nuggets (10 days later after All-Star break) @Cavaliers PELICANS LAKERS
After last night's action: ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 91.5% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 45-37, 6th seed. FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 89% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 46-36, 6th seed. Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 93.4% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 45.0-37.0, 6th seed. BNM
Projected final standings: ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds: 1 - GSW = 65-17 2 - HOU = 59-23 3 - SAS = 50-32 4 - MIN = 49-33 5 - OKC = 49-33 6 - POR = 45-37 7 - NOP = 42-40 8 - DEN = 41-41 FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions: 1 - GSW = 63-19 2 - HOU = 58-24 3 - SAS = 50-32 4 - OKC = 50-32 5 - MIN = 49-33 6 - POR = 46-36 7 - NOP = 43-39 8 - LAC = 41-41 Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report: 1 - GSW = 62.5-19.5 2 - HOU = 58.0-24.0 3 - SAS = 49.8-32.2 4 - OKC = 48.4-33.6 5 - MIN = 48.3-33.7 6 - POR = 45.0-37.0 7 - NOP = 42.7-39.3 8 - DEN = 41.3-40.7 BNM
Boob, do those have a rolling weighted average, or take season-into-account up to this point? I'm pretty sure they don't do predictive (like NOP without Biggie going forward...), but I'm intrigued by if our rotation getting a bit tighter and the offense starting to come back without corresponding defensive tanking is being adjusted for (or not)
So per these models, 50 wins potentially gets us into conversation for the 3 seed? That would require 21-10 from this point forward. Sounds daunting, but... Looking at the schedule, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that we might actually be favored in 21 of our final 31 games. Should be underdogs @TOR, @BOS, @DET, vGSW (2x), vHOU, vBOS, @OKC, @HOU, @SAS. Should be favored in the rest (debatable for games @UTA, @LAC, @NOP, @DEN). 50 wins is not only not out of reach, but is also actually not unreasonable.
Of course they do. All these projections are based on performance to date. The teams ahead of the Blazers have performed better to date and are expected to continue to do so. If you forget all the fancy simulations and just use everyone's current winning percentage you get: 3 - SAS = 52.6-29.4 4 - MIN = 48.6-33.4 5 - OKC = 48.2-33.8 6 - POR = 46.6-35.4 BNM
They just use performance to date. They look at overall record, margin of victory, strength of schedule, home and road records, etc., but it's all forward looking projections based on performance to date. So, recent injuries and trades haven't yet had an impact (they eventually will, but only after several post-injury/post-trade games have been played). BNM
If they can't win 3-4 of those underdog games, they don't deserve HCA anyway. Those are good to very good teams for the most part but if the Blazers are truly making a run, you have to beat those teams once in a while.
