Sam Hinkie: The anti-Olshey

When has that ever been true in Portland in the past? The past is the best predictor of the future.

I honestly think this team is doomed to mediocrity. The best hope I see is to trade CJ for something of real value and hope Collins develops. Even then I don't see us sniffing at the WCF. Dame is great, but he isn't enough and we don't have enough team capital to trade for fix the rest of the team. Dame's window will come and go with the wrong people around him and I think that is sad.

Some of us would rather have winning seasons and no title contention than to do a long rebuild and hope for more. I would rather do the rebuild under a different GM.

 

This is my problem with Hinkie. It was a law of averages. Picking in the lottery that high every year pretty much has to lead to eventually hitting on one. Just about any GM that had those picks could've done at least as good of a job as Hinkie. Olshey would absolutely build a contender with those kind of picks available to him.

 

Golden State hasn't drawn free agents until about 5 years ago, because they became great. Players weren't dying to go to Golden State....for decades.

 

I'm not satisfied with mediocrity either. But where we differ is that I think we can get up to contention without burning it all to the ground. Either way, I think we need a new guy to lead us. Neil is the one who put us in this mess and he's had enough chance to dig us out.

 

If I had the keys to the total rebuild and I could get Ayton for Dame, then yes, I would let Dame know that we don't see it working in his window and move him to a better opportunity to win. Drafting Ayton would be a good start, as you could then let Nurkic go and you have your two young bigs to develop. You trade CJ for some other future picks or young talent and the wing and guard spots, who can defend and then you look for that key player in the draft over the next few years. I would consider trading CJ to NY for Ntilikina and #9 and change to give you more shots on goal in the guard/wing slots. You let all your bad contracts run out and then you end up with Ayton, Collins, Ntilikina and several lottery picks (Portlands and others) and be well under the salary cap--very similar to the situation that Philly is in right now.

 

This is true, but that was because they had no talent or rep. It takes talent, good organization and location. Portland can have all the talent and organization in the world, but still won't be a place that single, athletic multi-millionaires want to live.

 

And so did Noel, Embiid, and Fultz.

 

And Simmons. Even he missed his rookie year.

 

Which is why Philly took the Casino approach of tanking for multiple years. They wanted to lose as many games as they possibly could for as long as they could so they could take as many pulls from the slot machine as possible. Even with Noel a bust, Fultz mystery meat and Embiid one bad injury away, they got a generational talent in Simmons, and only because they committed to the bit.

 

So it takes all 3? I just don't know if I follow that...nobody went to the Clippers forever, Golden State, NY isn't signing free agents when they have the opportunity...so is it location? Yes, its a factor, but there are a handful of game changing free agents each year, and they either go to wherever they can win a title quickest, or have some personal reason for going there. I think Portland/GMs/fans need to stop talking up the 'no one wants to come here' line, maybe we're creating a bigger problem than it needs to be.

 

I didn't include him because he got hurt after he was drafted I believe. The others all had red flags at the time of being drafted.

 

No, it's because they made bad picks along the way otherwise they would've been too good the year of the Simmons draft and wouldn't have gotten him. If they got the #1 pick the year before they would've drafted KAT instead of Okafor and had an even more imbalanced roster but one that would've won more than 10 games.

 

I would argue it does. Look at the top teams. Boston, Toronto, NO, GS, Houston. I will agree that Utah is a bit of an anomaly, but they have built through the draft.

NY has the destination, but no talent. Clippers will always be the ugly stepchild of Los Angeles. If the L@kers didn't exist, the Clips would be more popular. And, the Clips have never been known as having a fabulous organization.

 

But, without their commitment to building through the draft, they would have neither KAT nor Simmons. Certainly there is some luck involved, but I agree that the more times you get to pull the slot machine handle, the better your odds of getting winning the jackpot.

 

But that's highlighting the luck factor that we've all been harping about. The only reason they even landed Fultz is because Simmons missed a whole year and Embiid only played 31 games. And the only reason they landed Simmons is because Embiid missed his second consecutive season in 2016. And the only reason they landed Okafor is because Embiid missed his whole first year.

This kind of approach isn't really reproducible. We tank for a year, and we land a top prospect. Are we going to intentionally redshirt him so that we can tank for a second consecutive year?

 

If you gut your team of veterans and round out your roster with D-leaguers, you can guarantee sub 25-wins seasons, even with top-three picks that stay healthy. Where there is a will to endure the pain, there is a way.

 

You guys have no idea how much I appreciate this respectful, reasoned debate. It's great!

 

Fuck you Canzano. Just fuck you.