Trade Ideas Thread

You cherry pick stats worse than anyone on this forum. Whether it be career stats to compare a guy who's improved throughout his whole career to another guy who hasn't, or seasonal stats to compare one guys fluke off-year that has a 33% sample size to another guys best full season. Try to be consistent.

 

Do you?

 

Browns 2nd season was expected progression from his 1st year, and is much more indicative of who he is as a player than the much smaller sample size of this season, when hes been slumping.

But someone trying to make Brown look bad will either simply reference his current, slumping, small-sample sized season, or will reference career numbers. That's scuffed.

 

How did I cherry pick stats, when I listed everything? Objectively speaking, Oubres trajectory is that of a guy making improvements every year. Jaylens isn’t.

Try to be consistent? That’s interesting coming from someone that makes all the excuses as to why Otto Porter is struggling, putting the blame on everything but the player, and then turns around and shits on Oubre, and specifically his defense, as if those numbers aren’t largely team based.

The reality here probably falls in the middle. Oubre isn’t as bad as you think, nor is Brown as good.

 

The numbers just allow me to be objective. Because subjectively, I see a relatively low IQ player whose ceiling is role player. Even his best season so far suggests role player/fringe starter. Nothing wrong with being a role player, but give me Collins, someone I believe can anchor a team defensively, over him any day of the week.

Every 22 year old in the NBA has potential. They’re all talented. But if someone is given consistent minutes for two years, youd expect a jump in the third. Players and coaches allude to the consensus that a players third year is when his future in the league is determined.

 

So because Jaylen has struggled in a 24 game sample size after improving in his 2nd season compared to his first, he no longer has a positive trajectory? Or somehow, this sample size is the rule?

This season Oubre's has regressed in 3P%, FT%, Assists, Rebounds, AST:TOV Ratio, and in nearly every advanced stat. That covers almost his entire statistical profile. So I dint see how his stats show constant improvement.

Oubre has NEVER been good. You're talking about a guy who hasn't had a BPM better than -1.2 to a guy in Porter who had a BPM of at least 3.6 in each of his last two years. Since I last talked about Porter, hes also risen his TS% back up to 58%, so I was right in predicting him to bounce back and break out of his slump. Oubre has a TS% of 54.5%, and it's by far a career high! Also, we can compare team-based defensive stats between Oubre and Porter because they were in the same thing. Porter's numbers greatly outshone Oubre's. So you tried to use an example against me that actually shows I was 100% right.

Also, that's not things falling in the middle in regards to this debate. That's your whole point. Browns sophomore season at 21 is Oubre's ceiling. Brown has a lot more untapped potential than Oubre.

 

As long we staty in the playoffs I see Olshey stand pat with this team. If there a move it be something small like vonleh type of trade to reduce salary at trade deadline.

 

Browns best season, he was a solid starter on a playoff team. And he was 21, so suggesting that is his ceiling is silly.

You may like Collins more, but I guarantee you lost NBA GMs value Brown more. This article started talking about packages for AD. SAC's 1st + Brown > Our 1st + Collins.

 

You’re the same guy that at one point didn’t think a protected first was enough for Oubre, so I’m not surprised that you’d be overrating another wing with physical tools and limited production. Wings are valued because there are so few impact ones, not because teams go out of their way to acquire them.

And he was only “solid” because of his age. Compared to the rest of the league, he was still a below average starter. His PER, among shooting guards with at least 20mpg, was good for 26th.

 

Another thing opening up a roster spot does is allows him to use the Vonleh trade exception without having to cut someone too.

 

1.) I used to think his potential was higher.
2.) PER doesnt value defense, so you're cherry-picking that stat so that you dont have to account for his good defense.
3.) He would've had a bigger role on a worse team, and that would've likely resulted in a higher PER.

 

There really is no stat to accurately judge an individuals defensive abilities so it’s hard to **objectively* have a debate about it. For example, Kawhi is ranked outside the top 30 in DRPM and DRTG. It’s not me cherry picking. It’s me realizing it’s flawed.

Subjectively we can go in circles, but I’d rather not.

 

Which is why I like DBPM, and account for the fact that bigs usually have bigger swings in that's stat then wings. While imperfect, it's the best thing we can go off of unless we watch more than 50% of the player's games. PER, however, is a more flawed stat than any other 'advanced stat'. It shouldnt even be considered one.

 

Every defensive metric has flaws because so much of defense relies on surrounding factors and things that can’t be measured by stats. Offense is much easier to quantify. And there’s nothing wrong with using PER to judge players that see consistent minutes. It doesn’t let me down nearly as much as some of the other ones.

 

The more I think about it, the more I come around on the idea of dumping a contract by using our pick. The freedom is worth it.

 

Yup. I think that the difference between the tax-payer MLE and the MLE, BAE, and the freedom to make sign-and-trades is more likely to be more impactful than drafting another player in the 20s. Sure, you could get a Kuzma or Hart or Jarrett Allen, but you could also get a Caleb Swanigan. We don't really have the minutes to develop players, and given our position, I'd probably trade a 1st to dump Turner at this point.

 

But wouldn't you think Porter and Oubre were as close to having the same surrounding circumstances as possible? From my experience, BPM has been much more accurate than PER, but that's just my opinion.

 

I don’t know I’m bored, where’s Neil

 

Looking around the league, if we wanted to dump a contract using a first, Jabari and Chicago represent maybe our only chance. Bartlestein is tight with Olshey and speaks fondly about the Blazers. He would facilitate it knowing he’d be sending his client to an ideal refuge for throwaways. He’s going to send him where he has the best chance to rebuild his value. Bulls also did business with Olshey last year.